资本投入对中国森林公园旅游效率的影响研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.07.16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

合理的资本投入对于优化森林资源配置、提升森林公园旅游效率具有明显的基础作用。借助DEA方法对2008-2014年中国大陆31个省份的森林公园旅游效率进行测算,并且采用Tobit模型深入探讨资本投入对森林公园旅游效率的影响,包含资本结构与资本规模两个方面。研究发现：资本结构（国有资本投入比例）对中国森林公园旅游效率具有非线性倒U型的显著影响。另外,当年资本投入规模存在冗余,资本转化存在时间滞后效应,并且资本的产出弹性相对较小是造成当年森林公园旅游效率下降的主要原因。区域发展水平、交通条件以及森林公园密度都对森林公园旅游效率产生较为显著的积极影响;西南林区相对于其他林区来说,森林公园资源的旅游利用效率优势较为明显。为此,必须通过优化资本结构、确定合理的资本规模来逐步提升森林资源的旅游利用效率。

关键词: 资本结构, 资本规模, 森林公园, 旅游效率, DEA, Tobit模型

Abstract:

Reasonable capital input is key to optimizing the allocation of forest resources and promote tourism efficiency of forest parks. In order to study capital input effects on the tourism efficiency of forest parks in China,a two-stage analysis model of efficiency calculation and influencing factors of tourism efficiency based on efficiency calculation methods was established for forest parks in 31 provinces using data from 2008 to 2014. The study found a nonlinear and inverted U-shaped relationship between capital structure (proportion of state-owned capital investment) and tourism efficiency of forest parks,which means that the state-owned capital investment proportion in a reasonable range will have positive effects on the tourism efficiency of forest parks,while capital of other forms has a positive effect after the proportion exceeding the threshold. Total capital investment is redundant and the output elasticity of capital is relatively small compared to the elasticity of staff and the whole tourism industry,indicating that it is short of efficiency in use of the funds for construction and operation. The capital performs a time-lag effect whiling transforming the process of developing forest tourism. These factors are the main reasons for the decline in tourism efficiency of forest parks in China. Regional development level,traffic conditions and density of forest parks have a significant positive impact on the tourism efficiency of forest parks. The tourism efficiency of forest parks is best in southwest China. It is necessary to optimize capital structures and determine a reasonable scale of investment capital to gradually improve the tourism efficiency of forest resources in China.

Key words: capital structure, capital scale, forest park, tourism efficiency, DEA, Tobit model

丁振民, 黄秀娟. 资本投入对中国森林公园旅游效率的影响研究[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(7): 1363-1372.

DING Zhenmin,HUANG Xiujuan. Capital input effects on the tourism efficiency of forest parks in China[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(7): 1363-1372.

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指标类型	指标名称	衡量指标	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
投入	劳动力	职工人数/人	4 747.216	4 114.405	46	17 697
	资本	投入资金/万元	102 983.400	152 972.200	230	1 500 000*
	土地	森林公园面积/hm²	551 303.700	581 994.700	1952	2 500 000*
产出	经济效益	旅游收入/万元	140 976.700	230 523.200	652	1 600 000*
	社会效益	游客数量/万人	1 529.110	1 770.640	10	13 268
	生态效益	造林面积/hm²	8 106.940	8 619.463	0	48 881

变量类型	变量	变量名称	指标含义	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
因变量	effec	效率值	DEA计算出的效率值	0.763	0.246	0.201	1
	lnincome	旅游收入*	旅游收入/万元	10.777	1.644	6.480	14.286
自变量	finrate	资本结构	国有资本占资本总额的比例	0.278	0.194	0	0.937
	finrate2	资本结构平方项	finrate的平方项	0.115	0.157	0	0.878
	lncapital	资本规模*	资金总额/万元	10.762	1.450	5.438	14.221
	llncapital	资本规模滞后项*	lncapital的一期滞后项	10.690	1.446	5.438	14.221
	lnstaff（lnL）	劳动力*	职工人数/人	7.908	1.302	3.829	9.781
	lnK	资本存量*	资本存量/万元	11.690	1.608	5.438	14.871
控制变量	ubanrate	城市化水平	城市化率	0.517	0.142	0.226	0.893
	road	交通通达性	等级公路里程/万km	0.281	0.147	0.020	0.590
	lnpeoden	城市人口密度*	城市人口密度/（人/km²）	7.804	0.484	6.244	8.694
	forestden	森林公园密度	森林公园面积/省行政面积	0.024	0.024	0.002	0.133
	eastnorth	东北林区	虚拟变量	0.097	0.296	0	1
	South	南方林区	虚拟变量	0.355	0.480	0	1
	westsouth	西南林区	虚拟变量	0.161	0.369	0	1
	westnorth	西北林区	虚拟变量	0.129	0.336	0	1
	middlnorth	华北林区	虚拟变量	0.258	0.439	0	1

变量	变量名称	模型（1）		模型（2）		模型（3）		模型（4）
效率值		系数	标准误差	系数	标准误差	系数	标准误差	系数	标准误差
finrate	资本结构	0.140	0.122	0.682**	0.320			0.704**	0.332
finrate2	资本结构的平方项			-0.740*	0.405			-0.708*	0.408
llncapital	资本规模的滞后项					0.133***	0.035	0.135***	0.034
lncapital	资本规模	-0.117***	0.031	-0.104***	0.031	-0.170***	0.036	-0.159***	0.036
lnstaff	劳动力	0.042	0.057	-0.027	0.057	-0.036	0.062	-0.057	0.062
urbanrate	城市化水平	1.320***	0.391	1.306***	0.385	1.216***	0.390	1.119***	0.398
road	交通通达性	0.830***	0.275	0.744**	0.276	0.777**	0.292	0.730**	0.290
lnpeoden	城市人口密度	0.175**	0.088	0.171**	0.087	0.127	0.085	0.133	0.086
forestden	森林公园密度	5.143**	2.266	5.304**	2.222	5.062**	2.127	5.256**	2.155
eastnorth	东北林区	0.049	0.179	0.028	0.176	-0.015	0.165	-0.016	0.168
south	南方林区	0.162	0.114	0.131	0.113	0.146	0.107	0.117	0.109
westsouth	西南林区	0.446***	0.157	0.418***	0.154	0.434***	0.147	0.384***	0.150
westnorth	西北林区	0.108	0.161	0.067	0.160	0.093	0.153	0.020	0.157
cons	常数项	-0.811	0.850	-0.815	0.837	-0.054	0.869	-0.600	0.874
Likelihood		-64.678		-63.006		-49.132		-46.706
Wald chi2		42.38***		46.64***		56.67***		61.08***

旅游收入	系数	标准误差	P值
lnK	0.442 4***	0.058 4	0.000
lnL	0.667 2***	0.072 8	0.000
cons	0.329 1	0.466 9	0.481