黄土高原乡村“人水土”系统协同与机制

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.09.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

快速工业化、城镇化和现代化使得乡村地域系统面临的压力愈加突出，对乡村人地关系及资源组合状况的研究，是面向乡村振兴战略，实现乡村地域协调与高质量发展的科学基础。基于2000—2018年黄土高原313个县级行政单元数据，在构建乡村“人水土”系统指标体系的基础上，采用熵权TOPSIS法、空间自相关模型、GWR模型等方法研究3个子系统的时空分异规律，识别系统间的协同关系及其主要类型，揭示系统协同演化驱动机制。结果表明：①黄土高原乡村人类活动强度指数和水资源指数空间分布格局具有一致性，与土地资源指数空间错位显著，3个子系统指数均以较低水平等级为主，县域间不平衡性突出，但有减弱趋势。②黄土高原乡村系统协同关系类型以双维度制约型为主，研究时段内该类型县域数量呈倒U型变化特征，综合协调型县区数量逐渐增多，说明乡村逐步向高水平协调方向发展。③系统协调发展受自然及社会经济要素形成的资源分布与组合、流动与分配、资源需求利用及人口流动转移四元驱动机制所影响，不同要素对系统权衡强度和协调状态的作用不同。本文对优化乡村地域水土资源配置，促进乡村“人水土”系统协调演进有一定的借鉴意义。

关键词: 乡村“人水土”系统, 时空格局, 协同关系, 影响因素, 黄土高原

Abstract:

Rapid industrialization, urbanization, and modernization have posed increasing pressure on the rural regional system, and studying the relationship between human and land and the combination of resources in rural areas is the scientific basis for realizing regional coordination in rural areas and high-quality development for rural revitalization. Based on the basic data of 313 county-level administrative units on the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2018 and constructing the rural human-water-land indicator system, this study adopted the entropy weight technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, spatial autoregressive model, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to examine the spatial and temporal differentiation pattern of the human, water, and land subsystems, identifying the synergistic relationship between the three systems and their main types, and revealing the driving mechanism of system synergistic evolution. The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution pattern of the rural human activity intensity index and water resource index on the Loess Plateau is consistent, and the spatial dislocation of the land resource index is significant. The three subsystem indices are mainly at low levels and the imbalance between counties is prominent, but there is a weakening trend. (2) The type of rural cooperative relationship on the Loess Plateau is dominated by two-dimensional constraints, which showed an inverted U-shaped change characteristic during the study period. The number of comprehensive coordinated counties is increasing, indicating that the rural areas of the Loess Plateau are gradually developing towards a high level of coordination. (3) The coordinated development of the system is influenced by the four-element driving mechanism of resource distribution and combination, flow and distribution, resource demand and utilization, and population flow and transfer formed by various elements. Intensity and coordination of factors vary. This study has certain reference significance for optimizing the allocation of water and land resources in rural areas and promoting the coordinated evolution of the rural human-water-land system.

Key words: rural human-water-land system, spatiotemporal pattern, synergistic relationship, influencing factors, Loess Plateau

薛东前, 王莎, 王佳宁, 唐宇. 黄土高原乡村“人水土”系统协同与机制[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(9): 1809-1823.

XUE Dongqian, WANG Sha, WANG Jianing, TANG Yu. Coordination of human-water-land system and mechanism in rural areas of the Loess Plateau[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(9): 1809-1823.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指向
人类活动强度指数	乡村人口规模	乡村常住人口数量/人	+
	乡村就业状况	乡村一产就业占比/%	+
	乡村人口流动情况	乡村人口流动占比/%	+
	乡村人口集聚状况	乡村人口密度/(人/km²)	+
水资源指数	水资源禀赋	年均降水量/mm	+
	水资源禀赋	河网密度/(km/km²)	+
	水资源利用	农业用水量/10⁴m³	-
	水资源利用	乡村人畜需水量/10⁴m³	-
	水资源效益	单方水粮食产量/(kg/m³)	+
	水资源压力	乡村水环境状况/(t/m³)	-
土地资源指数	土地资源禀赋	耕地面积/km²	+
	土地资源禀赋	草地面积/km²	+
	土地资源利用	乡村建设用地开发强度/%	-
	土地资源利用	土地垦殖率/%	-
	土地生产效益	农业土地生产率/%	+
	土地环境压力	农业面源污染强度/(kg/km²)	-

综合指数	低	较低	中等	较高	高
人口资源子系统	≤0.060	0.060~0.100	0.100~0.150	0.150~0.250	≥0.250
水资源子系统	≤0.180	0.180~0.300	0.300~0.410	0.410~0.590	≥0.590
土地资源子系统	≤0.070	0.070~0.140	0.140~0.250	0.250~0.420	≥0.420

维度	类型	区域特征
单维度	土地资源匮乏型	人类活动强度高水资源可持续发展能力强土地资源可持续发展能力弱
	水资源约束型	人类活动强度高水资源可持续发展能力弱土地资源可持续发展能力强
	人类活动滞后型	人类活动强度低水资源可持续发展能力强土地资源可持续发展能力强
双维度	水-土制约型	人类活动强度高水资源可持续发展能力弱土地资源可持续发展能力弱
	人-土制约型	人类活动强度低水资源可持续发展能力强土地资源可持续发展能力弱
	人-水制约型	人类活动强度低水资源可持续发展能力弱土地资源可持续发展能力强
多维度	待发展型	人类活动强度低水资源可持续发展能力弱土地资源可持续发展能力弱
多维度	综合协调型	人类活动强度高水资源可持续发展能力强土地资源可持续发展能力强