资源科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (3): 608-619.doi: 10.18402/resci.2022.03.14

• 资源管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

黄河流域水-能源-粮食纽带关系协同演化及预测

罗巍1,2(), 杨玄酯3(), 杨永芳4, 程遂营5   

  1. 1.河南大学商学院,开封 475000
    2.河南大学工商管理研究所,开封 475000
    3.江苏大学管理学院,镇江 212013
    4.河南大学地理与环境学院,开封 475000
    5.河南大学文化产业与旅游管理学院,开封 475000
  • 收稿日期:2021-09-23 修回日期:2021-12-27 出版日期:2022-03-25 发布日期:2022-05-25
  • 通讯作者: 杨玄酯,女,黑龙江齐齐哈尔人,讲师,研究方向为绿色经济管理。E-mail: yangkaihan@126.com
  • 作者简介:罗巍,男,河南南阳人,副教授,研究方向为区域经济发展战略。E-mail: luowei@vip.henu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA081);2022年度河南省重点研发与推广专项(软科学)项目(222400410140);河南省教育科学“十四五”规划2021年度一般课题(2021YB0034)

Co-evolution of water-energy-food nexus in the Yellow River Basin and forecast of future development

LUO Wei1,2(), YANG Xuanzhi3(), YANG Yongfang4, CHENG Suiying5   

  1. 1. School of Business, Henan University, Kaifeng 475000, China
    2. Institute of Business Administration, Henan University, Kaifeng 475000, China
    3. School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
    4. School of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475000, China
    5. School of Cultural Industry and Tourism Management, Henan University, Kaifeng 475000, China
  • Received:2021-09-23 Revised:2021-12-27 Online:2022-03-25 Published:2022-05-25

摘要:

水、能源、粮食存在互相依赖的纽带关系,黄河流域作为三者矛盾突出且集中的典型区域,实现水-能源-粮食纽带关系协同演化,是保障流域资源安全、维护生态平衡、实现可持续发展的重要前提。基于协同学原理,按照序参量-子系统-复合系统的逻辑,从流域层和区域层,对2010—2019年黄河流域的水-能源-粮食纽带关系协同演化进行实证分析及ARIMA预测。结果发现:①从全流域看,3个子系统有序度演化近10年来均有上升,但三者间纽带关系演化长期处于低协同状态,其中,水-粮食协同度略高于能源-粮食协同度和水-能源协同度;②分区域看,上游和下游各子系统有序度演化近10年来升降各异,而中游各子系统有序度演化不断上升,3个区域中水-能源-粮食纽带关系演化均长期处于低协同状态;③根据ARIMA预测,纽带关系短期仍处于低协同状态,水资源相对于能源和粮食仍是首要约束。最后,从流域层提出“以水为刚性约束,多要素互动”,从区域层提出“生态位错位发展,多区域协同”等政策启示。

关键词: 高质量发展, 水-能源-粮食, 协同演化, 有序度, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Water, energy, and food form an interdependent nexus. The Yellow River Basin is the typical place where the conflict between the three are prominent and concentrated, which means that co-evolution of the water-energy-food nexus becomes an important foundation for ensuring the safety of river basin resources, maintaining ecological balance, and achieving sustainable development. Based on the principle of synergy and the structure of order parameter-subsystem-composite system, this study conducted an empirical analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forcast on the co-evolution of water-energy-food nexus in the Yellow River basin at the river basin and regional scales, 2010-2019. The results show that: (1) At the river basin level, the order degree of the three subsystems have increased in the past 10 years, but the water-energy-food nexus has a long-term low synergy, and the water-food synergy is slightly higher than the energy-food synergy and water-energy synergy. (2) At the regional scale, the order degree of the subsystems in both the upstream and downstream regions have risen and fallen differently in the past 10 years, while the order degree of the subsystems in the midstream region has evolved continuously, and the water-energy-food nexus in the three regions shows a long-term low synergy. (3) According to the ARIMA forecast, the water-energy-food nexus will be in a low-coordination state in the short term, and water resources are still the primary constraint relative to energy and food. Finally, for the basin and regional levels, the article puts forward some policy implications such as promoting multi-element interaction on the basis of water as a constraint and adopting varied ecological development to realize multi-regional coordination.

Key words: high-quality development, water-energy-food, co-evolution, order degree, Yellow River Basin