中国行业间水-能源-食物投入产出关联特征

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.03.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

国民经济行业通过投入产出关系形成复杂的行业网络,理解其中的水-能源-食物关联特征是实现国家战略资源协同管理的重要认知基础。本文基于2018年中国投入产出数据,采用社会网络分析和可计算一般均衡模型方法,按照“行业网络构建—关联特征识别—仿真模型模拟”的思路,从网络结构和个体属性角度对行业间水-能源-食物投入产出关联特征进行实证分析。结果表明：①水利管理业与外围行业具有广泛的投入产出关联且是行业间水、能源、食物产品流通的重要媒介,该行业及水的生产和供应业产出的增加会带动中国第二、第三产业用水量的高增长;②能源生产链上游的煤炭开采和洗选、石油天然气开采行业是全局中介行业,行业产量的增加能够显著扩大所有行业的商品产出规模,而生产链下游的电热生产供应、炼油和核燃料加工等行业则位居全行业关联网络的核心位置,所供应的二次能源产品是多类生产活动的基本投入;③种植业和餐饮业是水-能源-食物行业子网中的主导行业,且与子网外行业具有广泛而紧密的直接、间接联系,是中国水、能源和食物协同管理中需要重点关注的行业节点。本文研究成果可以为中国战略资源行业的管理提供决策支持,为水-能源-食物关联研究提供方法和案例参考。

关键词: 水-能源-食物关联, 投入产出, 行业网络, 社会网络分析, 可计算一般均衡模型

Abstract:

National industries form a complex industrial network by means of their input-output relationships, and comprehending water-energy-food nexus characteristics of the network is an important cognitive basis of the coordinated management of these strategic resources. Based on China's input-output data in 2018 and using social network analysis and the computable general equilibrium model, we analyzed the water-energy-food input-output nexus from both the network and attribute perspectives. The research framework of this study can be divided into industrial network construction, nexus characteristics identification, and model simulation. The results show that: (1) Water conservancy has extensive linkages with other industries and it is a vital medium for the circulation of water, energy, and food. The output increase of water conservancy and water production and supply industries can contribute to the significant increase of water use in secondary and tertiary industries. (2) Coal mining and washing industry and oil and gas exploitation industry located in the upstream of the energy production chain are the overall intermediary of industrial network, and the increase of their outputs can significantly scale up the production of all commodities. The downstream electric power and heat production and supply industry, and oil refining and nuclear fuel processing industry are in the core position of the network, and the secondary energy sources supplied by them become the basic input of numerous industries. (3) Planting industry and catering industry are leading industries in water-energy-food industrial subnet. They also have widespread and close connections with industries outside the subnet, which makes them more noteworthy in the coordinated management of water, energy, and food. The results of this study can provide decision support for the management of China's strategic resources industries and a reference of analytical methods and cases for water-energy-food nexus research.

Key words: water-energy-food nexus, input-output, industrial network, social network analysis, computable general equilibrium model

项潇智, 张雅娴. 中国行业间水-能源-食物投入产出关联特征[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(3): 595-607.

XIANG Xiaozhi, ZHANG Yaxian. The characteristics of the water-energy-food input-output nexus among China's national industries[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(3): 595-607.

图/表 6

表1

网络特征指标计算公式

指标	计算公式	变量解释
平均最短路径	$A L = ∑ d j p m (m - 1)$	$A L$ 为平均最短路径长度; $d j p$ 为行业 $j$ 和行业 $p$ 间最短路径上的边数; $m$ 为行业总数。
平均聚类系数	$A C = ∑ v j m n j (n j - 1)$	$A C$ 为平均聚类系数; $n j$ 为与行业 $j$ 相连的边数; $v j$ 为行业 $j$ 相邻行业间的边数。
节点中心度	$D C j = ∑ p = 1 m q j p + ∑ p = 1 m q p j$	$D C j$ 为行业 $j$ 的节点中心度; $q j p$ 和 $q p j$ 为二值矩阵中的对应元素;式中前后两项分别为出度值和入度值。
中间中心度	$B C j = ∑ b j s t b s t$	$B C j$ 为行业 $j$ 的中间中心度; $b s t$ 为行业 $s$ 和行业 $t$ 间的最短路径数; $b j s t$ 为行业 $s$ 和行业 $t$ 之间经过行业 $j$ 的最短路径数。
接近中心度	$O C C j = 1 ∑ p = 1 m r j p I C C j = 1 ∑ p = 1 m r p j$	$O C C j$ 、 $I C C j$ 分别为行业 $j$ 的出接近中心度和入接近中心度; $r j p$ 为行业 $j$ 至行业 $p$ 最短路径上的边数; $r p j$ 为行业 $p$ 至行业 $j$ 最短路径上的边数。

表1

图1

图2

表2

图3

表3

资源要素投入变化情景下的行业商品产出与要素需求变化（%）

商品/要素账户	S1		S2		S3		S4		S5		S6
商品/要素账户	CO	FD	CO	FD	CO	FD	CO	FD	CO	FD	CO	FD
谷物	0.14	10.42	0.06	5.14	0.02	5.91	0.69	3.69	0.97	—	0.18	—
豆、薯类	0.14	12.97	0.03	3.39	0.02	5.99	0.69	3.71	0.98	—	0.18	—
油料	0.15	11.64	0.03	3.91	0.02	5.97	0.69	3.70	0.97	—	0.18	—
糖类	0.13	10.09	0.05	4.54	0.02	5.94	0.69	3.69	0.97	—	0.18	—
蔬菜	0.10	8.64	0.05	4.98	0.02	5.92	0.68	3.68	0.97	—	0.18	—
瓜果	0.09	8.85	0.05	4.62	0.02	5.93	0.68	3.68	0.97	—	0.18	—
棉花及其他作物	0.11	9.09	0.07	6.28	0.02	5.87	0.69	3.67	0.97	—	0.18	—
畜牧业产品	0.03	—	0.04	10.91	0.02	6.13	0.63	9.53	0.86	—	0.16	—
渔产品	0.02	—	0.03	11.31	0.01	5.88	0.52	9.41	0.77	—	0.14	—
林产品及其他农产品	0.02	—	0.05	10.61	0.03	6.59	0.65	9.55	0.80	—	0.16	—
其他采矿业产品	-0.01	—	0.07	11.33	0.06	10.26	1.53	10.99	0.93	—	0.34	17.11
谷物磨制品	0.06	—	0.04	—	0.02	10.33	0.59	9.69	0.84	—	0.16	—
饲料加工品	0.04	—	0.04	—	0.02	10.33	0.61	9.68	0.87	—	0.16	—
油、糖、肉类、水产品	0.04	—	0.04	—	0.02	10.33	0.58	9.67	0.86	—	0.16	—
其他农副食品	0.06	—	0.04	—	0.02	10.36	0.61	9.60	0.87	—	0.16	—
方便食品和乳制品	0.03	—	0.03	—	0.02	10.34	0.53	9.52	0.76	—	0.14	—
其他食品	0.04	—	0.03	—	0.03	10.38	0.55	9.51	0.80	—	0.15	—
酒、饮料和茶加工品	0.01	—	0.04	11.23	0.04	10.27	0.63	9.69	0.79	—	0.16	—
烟草、纺织、木材制品	0.03	—	0.04	—	0.04	10.37	0.82	9.73	0.88	—	0.20	—
造纸印刷和文教用品	0.00	—	0.09	11.50	0.04	10.13	0.98	10.07	0.86	—	0.21	—
石油和核燃料加工品	0.00	—	0.02	11.19	0.01	10.28	0.76	4.32	5.09	9.05	0.45	4.06
煤加工产品	0.00	—	0.04	11.29	0.03	10.20	1.22	5.20	0.72	8.90	0.25	16.90
化学产品	0.01	—	0.07	11.39	0.04	10.14	1.39	13.04	1.62	23.22	0.30	17.94
金属冶炼和金属制品	-0.01	—	0.03	11.20	0.03	10.26	1.27	10.81	0.50	—	0.23	17.45
其他制造产品	-0.01	—	0.03	11.12	0.06	10.35	1.25	10.46	0.61	—	0.24	16.95
电、热、燃气生产供应	0.00	—	0.05	10.02	0.03	7.08	1.29	9.95	0.95	—	0.32	15.73
建筑	0.00	—	0.00	—	0.00	10.43	0.05	8.59	0.04	—	0.01	—
餐饮	0.00	—	0.02	—	0.02	10.33	0.65	9.56	0.90	—	0.17	—
其他服务	0.00	—	0.02	11.08	0.02	10.32	0.39	9.27	0.52	—	0.10	—

表3

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排名	点出度值	点入度值	中间中心度	入接近中心度	出接近中心度
1	批发	教育	商务服务	广播电视及卫星传输	批发
2	商务服务	金属、机械和设备修理	金融及金融服务	公共管理和社会组织	金融及金融服务
3	金融及金融服务	研究和试验发展	批发	研究和试验发展	商务服务
4	零售	文化艺术	专用化学产品	文化艺术	零售
5	电力、热力生产和供应	水利管理	邮政	社会保障	电力、热力生产和供应
6	金属制品	生态保护和环境治理	餐饮	社会工作	炼油和核燃料加工
7	炼油和核燃料加工	其他制造产品	农产品	管道运输	废弃资源材料回收加工
8	道路运输及辅助活动	医疗仪器设备及器械	航空运输辅助活动	水的生产和供应	金属制品
9	塑料制品	其他服务	油气开采	教育	道路运输及辅助活动
10	房地产	其他食品	零售	水利管理	房地产
11	钢压延产品	陶瓷制品	农林牧渔服务	生态保护和环境治理	塑料制品
12	专用化学产品	物料搬运设备	煤炭采选	金属、机械和设备修理	专用化学产品
13	有色金属压延	开采辅助和其他采矿	科技推广应用服务	医疗仪器设备及器械	餐饮
14	餐饮	公共管理和社会组织	肥料	体育	煤炭采选
15	农产品	建筑装饰其他建筑服务	基础化学原料	广播电视电影影视录音	有色金属及合金
Ⅰ	农产品	餐饮	餐饮	水的生产和供应	农产品
Ⅱ	谷物磨制品	其他食品	水利管理	水利管理	饲料加工品