中国工业用水需求价格弹性测算——基于联立方程模型

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.03.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水生态文明建设下,工业用水价格的有效调控关系到水资源管理成效的质量。基于2003—2019年的省级年度面板数据,利用联立方程解决内生性问题,估算中国工业用水需求的价格弹性。研究发现：①三阶段回归结果估计所得工业用水需求的价格弹性为-2.329,验证了工业企业的用水需求对价格变化较为敏感,即工业水价上涨,工业企业的用水需求将会呈现更为显著的下降;②当前水价存在一定程度的扭曲,提升水价的杠杆作用可显著缓解工业用水需求的紧张度;③分区域回归结果表明,不同区域的工业用水价格弹性存在显著差异,总体上呈现“西部>东部>中部”的宏观空间分布格局;④进一步分析发现,产业结构不合理、经济发展水平因素与水价不成正比,需求量不能完全决定价格,水价难以正确反映水资源价值等问题,抑制了东、中部地区工业水价经济杠杆作用的发挥。本文可为中国工业水价政策制定和水资源管理机制改革提供参考依据。

关键词: 工业用水, 水价, 需求价格弹性, 内生性, 联立方程模型

Abstract:

Under the development of water ecological civilization, the effective regulation of industrial water prices will affect the quality of water resources management effectiveness. Based on the provincial annual panel data from 2003 to 2019 and using simultaneous equations model to deal with the endogenous problem, this study estimated the price elasticity of China's industrial water demand. The results show that: (1) The three-stage regression estimated the price elasticity of industrial water demand to be -2.329. This shows that the water demand of industrial enterprises is more sensitive to price changes, that is, when the price of industrial water rises, the water demand of industrial enterprises will show a great decline. (2) There is a certain degree of distortion in the current water price, and the leverage of increasing the water price can significantly alleviate the tension of industrial water demand. (3) The results of the regional regression show that there are significant differences in the price elasticity of industrial water in different regions, with a spatial pattern of western region>eastern region>central region. (4) Further analysis found that problems such as suboptimal industrial structure, unbalanced economic development levels and water prices, price insensitivity to demands, water price not accurately reflecting the value of water resources inhibited the effectiveness of industrial water price economic leverage in the eastern and central regions. The research results can provide a reference for the formulation of industrial water price policy and the reform of the water resources management system in China.

Key words: industrial water, water prices, demand price elasticity, endogenous, simultaneous equations model

张峰, 程雪. 中国工业用水需求价格弹性测算——基于联立方程模型[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(3): 583-594.

ZHANG Feng, CHENG Xue. China's industrial water demand price elasticity: Based on simultaneous equations model[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(3): 583-594.

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变量	定义	单位	观察值	平均值	标准差	中间值	最大值	最小值
water	工业用水量	亿m³	510	44.41	45.11	26.91	255.20	2.40
price	工业水价	元/m³	510	2.98	1.25	2.84	9.36	0.79
add	工业增加值	亿元	510	5413.00	5880.00	3523.00	35662.00	102.50
scale	工业增加值/GDP	-	510	0.39	0.09	0.39	0.56	0.11
reuse	工业用水重复率	%	500	72.33	24.39	81.49	97.01	0.00
investment	供水固定资产投资	亿元	510	102872.00	109324.00	67483.00	791014.00	1772.00
plength	人均供水管道长度	m/人	510	4.89	8.50	3.34	180.30	0.85
resource	水资源总量	亿m³	510	766.80	693.30	538.90	2953.00	8.10
pgdp	人均GDP	元/人	510	13999.00	7810.00	11540.00	48411.00	3603.00

滞后阶数	K=1	K=1	K=2		K=3	K=3
原假设	工业水价不会影响工业用水需求	工业用水需求不会影响工业水价	工业水价不会影响工业用水需求	工业用水需求不会影响工业水价	工业水价不会影响工业用水需求	工业用水需求不会影响工业水价
W-bar	3.460	1.427	4.587	9.484	7.574	28.155
Z-bar（P值）	9.528（0.000）	1.655（0.098）	7.085（0.000）	20.495（0.000）	10.227（0.000）	56.248（0.000）
Z-bar tilde（P值）	6.466（0.000）	0.697（0.486）	3.542（0.000）	11.852（0.000）	3.299（0.000）	23.499（0.000）
结论	拒绝	接受	拒绝	拒绝	拒绝	拒绝

检验	原假设	工业用水需求方程 F统计量（P值）	工业水价方程 F统计量（P值）
Linktest	拟合值平方项系数为0	0.004（0.872）	0.076（0.468）
Reset	无遗漏变量	1.330（0.265）	2.050（0.106）

变量名称	(1) OLS	(2) 2SLS	(3) 3SLS	(4) 3SLS~r
lnprice	-1.093***	-2.649***	-2.329***	-2.339***
	(0.086)	(0.272)	(0.265)	(0.252)
lnadd	1.709***	2.381***	1.762***	1.784***
	(0.222)	(0.307)	(0.273)	(0.257)
lnadd ²	-0.065***	-0.081***	-0.054***	-0.055***
	(0.014)	(0.018)	(0.016)	(0.015)
scale	10.250***	1.076	6.955***	6.757***
	(1.692)	(2.634)	(2.350)	(2.217)
scale ²	-12.740***	-3.341	-8.527***	-8.335***
	(2.299)	(3.332)	(2.935)	(2.766)
reuse	-0.029	-0.469***	-0.261*	-0.269**
	(0.113)	(0.163)	(0.143)	(0.135)
d1	0.654***	-0.341*	-0.012	-0.021
	(0.097)	(0.202)	(0.195)	(0.185)
d2	0.738***	-0.166	0.145	0.136
	(0.090)	(0.185)	(0.179)	(0.170)
d3	0.399***	0.105	0.266***	0.261***
	(0.072)	(0.104)	(0.101)	(0.096)
常数项	-7.512***	-7.336***	-6.306***	-6.346***
	(0.890)	(1.153)	(1.004)	(0.946)
N	500	500	500	500
R²	0.786	0.641	0.676	0.676

变量名称	(1) OLS	(2) 2SLS	(3) 3SLS	(4) 3SLS~r
lnwater	-0.056***	0.081***	0.095***	0.096***
	(0.018)	(0.028)	(0.026)	(0.026)
lninvestment	0.043**	-0.019	-0.037*	-0.039**
	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.019)	(0.019)
lnplength	0.189***	0.230***	0.187***	0.182***
	(0.036)	(0.038)	(0.034)	(0.034)
lnresource	0.083***	0.051***	0.044***	0.043***
	(0.017)	(0.019)	(0.016)	(0.016)
lnpgdp	0.367***	0.344***	0.408***	0.414***
	(0.066)	(0.069)	(0.062)	(0.062)
d1	-0.717***	-0.801***	-0.788***	-0.787***
	(0.061)	(0.066)	(0.063)	(0.063)
d2	-0.502***	-0.591***	-0.564***	-0.562***
	(0.053)	(0.058)	(0.055)	(0.056)
d3	-0.118***	-0.107**	-0.0934**	-0.0924**
	(0.045)	(0.047)	(0.045)	(0.046)
常数项	-3.157***	-2.528***	-2.886***	-2.927***
	(0.562)	(0.600)	(0.535)	(0.538)
N	500	500	500	500
R²	0.786	0.641	0.676	0.676