资源科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (3): 583-594.doi: 10.18402/resci.2022.03.12
收稿日期:
2021-09-09
修回日期:
2021-11-19
出版日期:
2022-03-25
发布日期:
2022-05-25
通讯作者:
程雪,女,山东淄博人,硕士研究生,研究方向为管理系统工程。E-mail: 974832053@qq.com作者简介:
张峰,男,山东济南人,博士,副教授,研究方向为系统工程与工业工程。E-mail: glxyzf@163.com
基金资助:
Received:
2021-09-09
Revised:
2021-11-19
Online:
2022-03-25
Published:
2022-05-25
摘要:
水生态文明建设下,工业用水价格的有效调控关系到水资源管理成效的质量。基于2003—2019年的省级年度面板数据,利用联立方程解决内生性问题,估算中国工业用水需求的价格弹性。研究发现:①三阶段回归结果估计所得工业用水需求的价格弹性为-2.329,验证了工业企业的用水需求对价格变化较为敏感,即工业水价上涨,工业企业的用水需求将会呈现更为显著的下降;②当前水价存在一定程度的扭曲,提升水价的杠杆作用可显著缓解工业用水需求的紧张度;③分区域回归结果表明,不同区域的工业用水价格弹性存在显著差异,总体上呈现“西部>东部>中部”的宏观空间分布格局;④进一步分析发现,产业结构不合理、经济发展水平因素与水价不成正比,需求量不能完全决定价格,水价难以正确反映水资源价值等问题,抑制了东、中部地区工业水价经济杠杆作用的发挥。本文可为中国工业水价政策制定和水资源管理机制改革提供参考依据。
张峰, 程雪. 中国工业用水需求价格弹性测算——基于联立方程模型[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(3): 583-594.
ZHANG Feng, CHENG Xue. China's industrial water demand price elasticity: Based on simultaneous equations model[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(3): 583-594.
表1
数据的描述性统计
变量 | 定义 | 单位 | 观察值 | 平均值 | 标准差 | 中间值 | 最大值 | 最小值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
water | 工业用水量 | 亿m³ | 510 | 44.41 | 45.11 | 26.91 | 255.20 | 2.40 |
price | 工业水价 | 元/m³ | 510 | 2.98 | 1.25 | 2.84 | 9.36 | 0.79 |
add | 工业增加值 | 亿元 | 510 | 5413.00 | 5880.00 | 3523.00 | 35662.00 | 102.50 |
scale | 工业增加值/GDP | - | 510 | 0.39 | 0.09 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 0.11 |
reuse | 工业用水重复率 | % | 500 | 72.33 | 24.39 | 81.49 | 97.01 | 0.00 |
investment | 供水固定资产投资 | 亿元 | 510 | 102872.00 | 109324.00 | 67483.00 | 791014.00 | 1772.00 |
plength | 人均供水管道长度 | m/人 | 510 | 4.89 | 8.50 | 3.34 | 180.30 | 0.85 |
resource | 水资源总量 | 亿m³ | 510 | 766.80 | 693.30 | 538.90 | 2953.00 | 8.10 |
pgdp | 人均GDP | 元/人 | 510 | 13999.00 | 7810.00 | 11540.00 | 48411.00 | 3603.00 |
表2
2003—2019年工业水价和工业用水量的Granger因果关系检验
滞后阶数 | K=1 | K=1 | K=2 | K=2 | K=3 | K=3 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
原假设 | 工业水价不会影响工业用水需求 | 工业用水需求不会影响工业水价 | 工业水价不会影响工业用水需求 | 工业用水需求不会影响工业水价 | 工业水价不会影响工业用水需求 | 工业用水需求不会影响工业水价 | |
W-bar | 3.460 | 1.427 | 4.587 | 9.484 | 7.574 | 28.155 | |
Z-bar(P值) | 9.528(0.000) | 1.655(0.098) | 7.085(0.000) | 20.495(0.000) | 10.227(0.000) | 56.248(0.000) | |
Z-bar tilde(P值) | 6.466(0.000) | 0.697(0.486) | 3.542(0.000) | 11.852(0.000) | 3.299(0.000) | 23.499(0.000) | |
结论 | 拒绝 | 接受 | 拒绝 | 拒绝 | 拒绝 | 拒绝 |
表4
工业用水需求方程联立回归结果
变量名称 | (1) OLS | (2) 2SLS | (3) 3SLS | (4) 3SLS~r |
---|---|---|---|---|
lnprice | -1.093*** | -2.649*** | -2.329*** | -2.339*** |
(0.086) | (0.272) | (0.265) | (0.252) | |
lnadd | 1.709*** | 2.381*** | 1.762*** | 1.784*** |
(0.222) | (0.307) | (0.273) | (0.257) | |
lnadd 2 | -0.065*** | -0.081*** | -0.054*** | -0.055*** |
(0.014) | (0.018) | (0.016) | (0.015) | |
scale | 10.250*** | 1.076 | 6.955*** | 6.757*** |
(1.692) | (2.634) | (2.350) | (2.217) | |
scale 2 | -12.740*** | -3.341 | -8.527*** | -8.335*** |
(2.299) | (3.332) | (2.935) | (2.766) | |
reuse | -0.029 | -0.469*** | -0.261* | -0.269** |
(0.113) | (0.163) | (0.143) | (0.135) | |
d1 | 0.654*** | -0.341* | -0.012 | -0.021 |
(0.097) | (0.202) | (0.195) | (0.185) | |
d2 | 0.738*** | -0.166 | 0.145 | 0.136 |
(0.090) | (0.185) | (0.179) | (0.170) | |
d3 | 0.399*** | 0.105 | 0.266*** | 0.261*** |
(0.072) | (0.104) | (0.101) | (0.096) | |
常数项 | -7.512*** | -7.336*** | -6.306*** | -6.346*** |
(0.890) | (1.153) | (1.004) | (0.946) | |
N | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
R2 | 0.786 | 0.641 | 0.676 | 0.676 |
表5
工业水价方程联立回归结果
变量名称 | (1) OLS | (2) 2SLS | (3) 3SLS | (4) 3SLS~r |
---|---|---|---|---|
lnwater | -0.056*** | 0.081*** | 0.095*** | 0.096*** |
(0.018) | (0.028) | (0.026) | (0.026) | |
lninvestment | 0.043** | -0.019 | -0.037* | -0.039** |
(0.018) | (0.021) | (0.019) | (0.019) | |
lnplength | 0.189*** | 0.230*** | 0.187*** | 0.182*** |
(0.036) | (0.038) | (0.034) | (0.034) | |
lnresource | 0.083*** | 0.051*** | 0.044*** | 0.043*** |
(0.017) | (0.019) | (0.016) | (0.016) | |
lnpgdp | 0.367*** | 0.344*** | 0.408*** | 0.414*** |
(0.066) | (0.069) | (0.062) | (0.062) | |
d1 | -0.717*** | -0.801*** | -0.788*** | -0.787*** |
(0.061) | (0.066) | (0.063) | (0.063) | |
d2 | -0.502*** | -0.591*** | -0.564*** | -0.562*** |
(0.053) | (0.058) | (0.055) | (0.056) | |
d3 | -0.118*** | -0.107** | -0.0934** | -0.0924** |
(0.045) | (0.047) | (0.045) | (0.046) | |
常数项 | -3.157*** | -2.528*** | -2.886*** | -2.927*** |
(0.562) | (0.600) | (0.535) | (0.538) | |
N | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
R2 | 0.786 | 0.641 | 0.676 | 0.676 |
表6
分地区模型回归结果
变量名称 | 东部地区 | 中部地区 | 西部地区 | 全国 |
---|---|---|---|---|
lnwater | ||||
lnprice | -1.493*** | -0.304* | -2.853*** | -2.329*** |
(0.274) | (0.173) | (0.305) | (0.265) | |
lnadd | 0.174 | -0.471 | 1.825*** | 1.762*** |
(0.345) | (0.923) | (0.565) | (0.273) | |
lnadd 2 | 0.039** | 0.044 | -0.037 | -0.054*** |
(0.020) | (0.055) | (0.039) | (0.016) | |
scale | 7.569** | -1.422 | 11.700** | 6.955*** |
(3.036) | (2.136) | (5.875) | (2.350) | |
scale 2 | -7.960** | 4.566* | -14.810* | -8.527*** |
(3.729) | (2.678) | (7.969) | (2.935) | |
reuse | -0.688*** | -0.258** | -0.369 | -0.261* |
(0.184) | (0.110) | (0.231) | (0.143) | |
d1 | 0.346 | 1.375*** | 0.000 | -0.012 |
(0.252) | (0.126) | (.) | (0.195) | |
d2 | 0.445* | 1.741*** | -0.211 | 0.145 |
(0.235) | (0.132) | (0.210) | (0.179) | |
d3 | -0.034 | 0.907*** | 0.104 | 0.266*** |
(0.175) | (0.070) | (0.136) | (0.101) | |
常数项 | -0.834 | 3.869 | -7.866*** | -6.306*** |
(1.208) | (3.677) | (2.373) | (1.004) | |
lnprice | ||||
lnwater | -0.055* | -0.062 | 0.339*** | 0.095*** |
(0.028) | (0.086) | (0.040) | (0.026) | |
lninvestment | 0.017 | 0.044 | -0.015 | -0.037* |
(0.022) | (0.031) | (0.022) | (0.019) | |
lnplength | 0.646*** | 0.127*** | 0.145*** | 0.187*** |
(0.054) | (0.038) | (0.056) | (0.034) | |
lnresource | 0.130*** | 0.020 | -0.047** | 0.044*** |
(0.024) | (0.041) | (0.021) | (0.016) | |
lnpgdp | -0.298*** | 0.834*** | 1.071*** | 0.408*** |
(0.112) | (0.128) | (0.098) | (0.062) | |
d1 | -1.186*** | -0.314 | 0.000 | -0.788*** |
(0.073) | (0.195) | (.) | (0.063) | |
d2 | -1.135*** | -0.357* | -0.338*** | -0.564*** |
(0.075) | (0.209) | (0.065) | (0.055) | |
d3 | -0.373*** | -0.045 | 0.283*** | -0.093** |
(0.068) | (0.120) | (0.062) | (0.045) | |
常数项 | 2.986*** | -7.079*** | -9.447*** | -2.886*** |
(1.019) | (1.080) | (0.843) | (0.535) | |
N | 177 | 136 | 187 | 500 |
R2 | 0.870 | 0.896 | 0.313 | 0.6760 |
表7
稳健性检验回归结果
变量名称 | (1)OLS | (2) 2SLS | (3)3SLS | (4)3SLS~r |
---|---|---|---|---|
lnwater | ||||
lnprice | -1.075*** | -2.682*** | -2.556*** | -2.539*** |
(0.086) | (0.269) | (0.256) | (0.254) | |
lnadd | 1.752*** | 2.442*** | 1.994*** | 1.957*** |
(0.230) | (0.320) | (0.276) | (0.265) | |
lnadd 2 | -0.068*** | -0.085*** | -0.068*** | -0.067*** |
(0.015) | (0.020) | (0.017) | (0.016) | |
scale | 10.160*** | 0.805 | 5.481** | 6.066*** |
(1.688) | (2.633) | (2.282) | (2.197) | |
scale 2 | -12.470*** | -3.062 | -7.092** | -7.575*** |
(2.294) | (3.334) | (2.863) | (2.747) | |
reuse | 0.008 | -0.466*** | -0.294** | -0.270* |
(0.114) | (0.166) | (0.143) | (0.138) | |
teh | -0.028 | 0.024 | 0.148** | 0.166*** |
(0.054) | (0.071) | (0.062) | (0.060) | |
leakloss | -0.011** | -0.003 | -0.003 | -0.004 |
(0.005) | (0.006) | (0.005) | (0.005) | |
d1 | 0.696*** | -0.353* | -0.138 | -0.106 |
(0.099) | (0.206) | (0.193) | (0.192) | |
d2 | 0.794*** | -0.172 | 0.040 | 0.070 |
(0.093) | (0.191) | (0.180) | (0.178) | |
d3 | 0.455*** | 0.120 | 0.272** | 0.294*** |
(0.077) | (0.113) | (0.107) | (0.107) | |
常数项 | -7.574*** | -7.471*** | -6.713*** | -6.689*** |
(0.912) | (1.197) | (1.025) | (0.984) | |
lnprice | ||||
lnwater | -0.056*** | 0.063** | 0.081*** | 0.088*** |
(0.018) | (0.027) | (0.025) | (0.025) | |
lninvestment | 0.043** | -0.011 | -0.029 | -0.035* |
(0.018) | (0.021) | (0.018) | (0.018) | |
lnplength | 0.189*** | 0.224*** | 0.175*** | 0.166*** |
(0.036) | (0.038) | (0.033) | (0.033) | |
lnresource | 0.083*** | 0.056*** | 0.039** | 0.034** |
(0.017) | (0.018) | (0.016) | (0.015) | |
lnpgdp | 0.367*** | 0.348*** | 0.399*** | 0.408*** |
(0.065) | (0.068) | (0.060) | (0.059) | |
d1 | -0.717*** | -0.790*** | -0.757*** | -0.749*** |
(0.061) | (0.065) | (0.061) | (0.062) | |
d2 | -0.502*** | -0.579*** | -0.537*** | -0.528*** |
(0.053) | (0.057) | (0.054) | (0.055) | |
d3 | -0.118*** | -0.109** | -0.083* | -0.076* |
(0.045) | (0.047) | (0.045) | (0.045) | |
常数项 | -3.157*** | -2.612*** | -2.833*** | -2.838*** |
(0.562) | (0.591) | (0.522) | (0.513) | |
N | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
R2 | 0.788 | 0.635 | 0.635 | 0.631 |
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