农作物种植结构演变下的黄淮海旱作区小麦玉米生产时空格局

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.03.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

明确农作物种植结构类型的时空演变规律、以及演变过程中主要作物的生产时空格局,对开展农作物生产布局优化工作、促进农业可持续发展具有重要意义。基于农业统计数据,探讨2002—2018年黄淮海旱作区农作物种植结构类型的时空演变特征,同时利用空间自相关、重心模型等方法探讨农作物种植结构变化过程中该区域的两种主要作物——小麦和玉米的生产时空格局及其变化规律。结果发现：①近20年,黄淮海旱作区农作物种植结构类型整体由多样化向专一化发展,种植结构类型丰富度总体呈减小趋势,以小麦和玉米及其组合为主的种植结构占有的县域数目逐年增多,43%的县域小麦种植比例显著增加,81%的县域玉米种植比例显著增加（p<0.05）。②传统农业生产地带,包括河北平原西部、鲁西北等地小麦和玉米单产呈显著“高-高”聚集特征（p<0.05）,河南中东部小麦单产也呈显著“高-高”聚集特征,但研究区南部玉米单产呈显著“低-低”聚集特征。尽管旱作区内部小麦和玉米的生产格局表现出一定的地域差异性,但近20年小麦和玉米的生产重心均集中分布在河北、山东、河南三省交界处,表明在农作物种植结构类型演变的过程中,区域尺度小麦和玉米的生产具有一定的时序稳定性。③在“以水定产”和地下水可持续利用的目标导向下,河北平原的小麦种植比例有所减少,2014年以后,小麦玉米型县域数目减少,玉米小麦型增加,2018年已不存在单一小麦型县域。本文可为黄淮海旱作区区域尺度农作物种植结构优化提供数据支撑与决策支持。

关键词: 农作物种植结构, 小麦和玉米, 空间自相关, 生产重心, 黄淮海旱作区

Abstract:

Identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of crop planting structure, as well as the spatiotemporal patterns of major crops production during the evolution of crop planting structure, is of great significance for the optimization of the spatial layout of crop production, and the promotion of sustainable agricultural development. Based on the data from agricultural statistical yearbooks, this study examined the spatiotemporal change characteristics of crop planting structure types in the Huang-Huai-Hai dry farmland during 2002-2018, and used the spatial autocorrelation analysis method and center of gravity model to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of the production of wheat and maize, two main crops in this region, and their changing trends during the evolution of crop planting structure. The results show that: (1) In the study period, the overall planting structure types of crops in the region changed from diversified to specialized, and the abundance of planting structure types generally showed a decreasing trend. The planting structure was dominated by wheat, maize, and their combinations, and the number of covered counties was increasing year by year. Of all counties, 43% experienced a significant increase in the proportion of wheat planting area in total crop planting areas, and the ratio was 81% for maize planting (p<0.05). (2) Traditional agricultural production areas, including the western Hebei Plain and the northwestern Shandong Province, showed significant “high-high” agglomeration characteristics of wheat and maize average yields (p<0.05), and average wheat yield in central and eastern Henan was also relatively high, but average yield of maize in the southern part of the study area was low, showing significantly “low-low” agglomerations. Although the production patterns of wheat and maize in the study area showed geographical differences, the production centers of wheat and maize in the past 20 years have been concentrated at the junction of Hebei, Shandong, and Henan provinces, indicating that in the evolution of crop planting structure, the regional production of wheat and maize had a certain temporal stability. (3) Under the guidance of the goal of “production decided by water” and sustainable use of groundwater, the proportion of wheat planting area in the Hebei Plain has decreased. After 2014, the number of wheat-maize type counties decreased, and the number of maize-wheat type counties increased. In 2018, there were no longer single wheat-type counties. The results of this study may provide data support and decision support for further optimizing crop planting structure at the regional scale in the Huang-Huai-Hai dry farmland.

Key words: crop planting structure, wheat and maize, spatial autocorrelation, gravity center of production, Huang-Huai-Hai dry farmland

任频频, 李保国, 黄峰. 农作物种植结构演变下的黄淮海旱作区小麦玉米生产时空格局[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(3): 436-449.

REN Pinpin, LI Baoguo, HUANG Feng. Spatiotemporal patterns of wheat and maize production under the evolution of crop planting structures in the Huang-Huai-Hai dry farmland, China[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(3): 436-449.

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作物	要素	2002年	2004年	2006年	2008年	2010年	2012年	2014年	2016年	2018年
小麦	总产	0.52	0.58	0.60	0.64	0.63	0.62	0.63	0.64	0.63
	面积	0.55	0.61	0.60	0.63	0.62	0.62	0.63	0.64	0.64
	单产	0.53	0.48	0.53	0.45	0.42	0.39	0.39	0.39	0.34
玉米	总产	0.20	0.23	0.22	0.19	0.22	0.26	0.31	0.32	0.28
	面积	0.16	0.19	0.19	0.20	0.20	0.24	0.28	0.31	0.28
	单产	0.47	0.38	0.30	0.47	0.51	0.53	0.50	0.53	0.44