资源科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 386-400.doi: 10.18402/resci.2022.02.14

• 海洋资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对中国近海捕捞渔业的影响——以太平洋年代际涛动为例

徐策1(), 张力2,3,4, 余静1, 张瑛5()   

  1. 1.中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,青岛 266100
    2.中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室,青岛 266100
    3.中国海洋大学深海圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心,青岛 266100
    4.青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室,青岛 266237
    5.中国海洋大学管理学院,青岛 266100
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-23 修回日期:2021-11-06 出版日期:2022-02-25 发布日期:2022-04-13
  • 通讯作者: 张瑛,女,北京人,教授,主要研究方向为气候变化与渔业资源。E-mail: 736482119@qq.com
  • 作者简介:徐策,女,山东青岛人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为气候变化与海洋资源综合管理。E-mail: 962610246@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(42176218);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(B类)资助项目(XDB40000000)

Impact of climate change on China’s offshore fishing: Taking the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as an example

XU Ce1(), ZHANG Li2,3,4, YU Jing1, ZHANG Ying5()   

  1. 1. College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
    2. Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
    3. Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
    4. Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
    5. College of Management, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
  • Received:2021-08-23 Revised:2021-11-06 Online:2022-02-25 Published:2022-04-13

摘要:

太平洋年代际涛动(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)是气候年代际变化的主要模态之一,不仅对欧亚及北美大陆气候有重要的调节作用,对海洋生态系统及渔业资源也产生重要影响。本文以影响中国近海环境最主要的气候年代际事件PDO为切入点,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、超前滞后相关、一元回归分析和经验模态分解(EMD)等方法,分析了1950—2018年中国近海4种主要经济鱼种(小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)、带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)、银鲳(Pampus argenteus)及蓝点马鲛(Scomberomorus niphonius))渔获量波动与PDO变化的关系。结果表明:①渤黄东海4种渔获量与PDO的关系变化一致,存在显著的同期负相关;而南海4种渔获量与其他海区不同,与PDO相关性较差。②PDO变化对渔获量的影响主要集中在年代际尺度,并且在PDO位相转换期间的影响更为显著。③PDO变化通过引起渤黄东海的海温和初级生产力(以叶绿素为表征)显著变化,对渔获量波动产生影响。具体表现为当PDO处于负位相时,中国近海会出现海水增暖、叶绿素增加现象,适宜海温和初级生产力提升,使得渔获量增加。本文结合中国海洋渔业发展现状和特点,对中国海洋渔业发展方面提出相应对策建议,以期为气候变化背景下中国渔业资源的开发利用提供理论指导。

关键词: 气候变化, 太平洋年代际涛动, 渔获量, 海洋经济, 海表温度, 叶绿素浓度, 海气CO2通量

Abstract:

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the most prominent form of decadal variability over the North Pacific, characterized by its horseshoe-shaped sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. The PDO exerts a substantial influence on marine ecosystems, fisheries, and agriculture. Based on empirical orthogonal function, lagged correlation, regression, and empirical mode decomposition, we analyzed the relationship between the catch fluctuations of four major economic species (Larimichthys polyactis, Trichiurus lepturus, Pampus argenteus, and Scomberomorus niphoius) in China’s exclusive economic zone and PDO variability in recent 50 years. The results show that the lagged-correlations between the four fish catches in the Bohai and Yellow Seas and the East China Sea and PDO are consistent, reaching the largest negative coefficient in simultaneous correlation. However, the South China Sea is different from other sea areas and has a poor correlation with PDO. The influence of PDO variability on the catch is mainly concentrated in the decadal scale with a 10-20 years decadal cycle, and the influence is more significant in the phase transition period of PDO. Further studies show that PDO variability could affect the fluctuation of fish catch by causing significant changes in SST and chlorophyll. Specifically, when PDO is in the negative (warm) phase, the SST warming and chlorophyll increase will occur in offshore China, and such suitable SST and improvement of marine primary productivity will increase the fish catch. Combined with the current situation and characteristics of China’s marine fishery development, this article also puts forward suggestions for the development and utilization of fishery resources, from the aspects of research and prediction of climate change and formulation and improvement of fishery regulations and laws.

Key words: climate change, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, fishery catch, marine economics, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration, sea surface and atmospheric f CO2