资源科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 334-349.doi: 10.18402/resci.2022.02.10

• 资源管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

粮食主产区政策对农业环境全要素生产率的效应评估

吴海霞1(), 郝含涛2, 葛岩3()   

  1. 1.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京 100081
    2.陕西师范大学国际商学院,西安710119
    3.中央财经大学财税学院,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2021-06-03 修回日期:2021-08-30 出版日期:2022-02-25 发布日期:2022-04-13
  • 通讯作者: 葛岩,男,北京人,博士,副教授,研究方向为时间序列分析。E-mail: machopku@163.com
  • 作者简介:吴海霞,女,山东潍坊人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为绿色农业与绿色农产品。E-mail: hxia007@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973087);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003215);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(20YJC790114);陕西省社科基金项目(2019D024);中央高校基本科研业务经费专项资金项目(20SZYB21)

Effect evaluation of the main grain producing area policy on agricultural environmental total factor productivity

WU Haixia1(), HAO Hantao2, GE Yan3()   

  1. 1. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    2. School of International Business, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
    3. School of Public Finance and Taxation, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2021-06-03 Revised:2021-08-30 Online:2022-02-25 Published:2022-04-13

摘要:

随着中国农业发展进入“瓶颈期”,粮食主产区政策在保障国家主要农产品安全的前提下,能否进一步促进农业转型升级、提高农业环境全要素生产率亟待研究。本文将2004年设立粮食主产区作为一次准自然实验,在考虑农业面源污染等非期望产出的基础上,运用SBM-GML指数及双重差分法,探究了粮食主产区政策对农业环境全要素生产率的影响。研究表明:①粮食主产区的设立显著抑制了农业环境全要素生产率的增长,且忽视环境因素容易低估政策效应。具体来看,该政策提高农业纯(技术)效率的同时抑制了纯技术进步和规模效率的提高。②作用机制分析表明,粮食主产区政策通过提高粮食播种面积和化肥施用量抑制了农业环境全要素生产率的增长,但农业机械化的推广则会改善农业环境全要素生产率。③异质性分析表明,产粮大省本身所具有的禀赋优势会削弱粮食主产区政策整体对农业环境全要素生产率的抑制。而且,从粮食种植结构来看,该政策对农业环境全要素生产率的抑制主要发生在水稻种植区域,对小麦和玉米种植区域影响相对较弱。进一步调整和完善粮食主产区政策,对于转变农业发展方式、实现农业可持续发展具有重要意义。

关键词: 农业发展, 粮食主产区, 环境全要素生产率, 政策效应, SBM-GML指数, 中介效应

Abstract:

As China’s agricultural development enters the “bottleneck period”, it is urgent to examine whether the main grain producing area policy can further promote agricultural transformation and upgrading and improve environmental total factor productivity of agriculture on the premise of ensuring the safety of major national agricultural products. In this study, the designation of main grain producing areas in 2004 was taken as a quasi-natural experiment. On the basis of considering agricultural non-point source pollution, the Slacks-Based Measure and Global Malmquist-Luenberger (SBM-GML) index and a difference-in-differences method were used to explore the impact of the main grain producing area policy on agricultural environmental total factor productivity. The results show that: (1) The designation of main grain producing areas significantly inhibited the growth of agricultural environmental total factor productivity, and ignoring environmental factors can lead to an underestimation of the policy effects. In particular, the policy improved agricultural pure (technical) efficiency and inhibited the improvement of pure technological progress and scale efficiency. (2) The mechanism analysis result shows that the policy inhibited the growth of agricultural environmental total factor productivity by increasing the sown area of grains and the amount of chemical fertilizers, but the popularization of agricultural mechanization can improve the agricultural environmental total factor productivity. (3) The heterogeneity analysis result shows that the endowment advantage of large grain producing provinces weakened the overall inhibition of agricultural environmental total factor productivity caused by the policy. Moreover, from the perspective of grain planting structure, the policy mainly inhibited the environmental total factor productivity of agriculture in rice growing areas, and had relatively weak influence on wheat and corn growing areas. Further adjusting and improving the policy is of great significance for changing the mode of agricultural development and realizing the sustainable development of agriculture.

Key words: agricultural development, main grain producing areas, environmental total factor productivity, policy effect, SBM-GML, mediation effect