欧盟碳边境调节机制下中国钢铁行业的碳配额分配策略

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.02.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

欧盟启动碳边境调节机制将会影响中国钢铁行业的成本效率,鲜有研究从碳市场角度考虑如何应对其导致的负面影响。基于此,本文构建了两种价格可变的资源分配模型,从碳市场角度研究在短期和长期中国减缓欧盟碳边境调节机制负面影响的碳配额分配策略。本文以中国各省份钢铁行业为例进行成本效率评估和碳配额分配,研究发现：①在短期中国碳价格不变和长期中国碳价格上涨情况下,欧盟碳边境调节机制将会导致行业成本效率下降;②中国出口到欧盟的钢铁产品数量越多则中国钢铁行业成本效率下降的幅度越大,中国碳价格水平越高则钢铁行业的成本效率越稳定;③通过碳市场优化配额分配能有效缓解欧盟碳边境调节机制的负面影响;④在优化碳配额的同时进行能源消费量调整,能够获得对配额总量影响较小的方案。本文研究结论为中国完善碳市场政策、有效应对欧盟碳边境调节机制的挑战提供了有益的政策启示。

关键词: 碳边境调节机制, 碳市场, 成本效率, 碳配额分配, 能源消费, 碳价格, 非参数前沿方法

Abstract:

The upcoming EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) may affect the cost efficiency of the Chinese steel industry. However, few studies have looked into the ways to cope with the negative impact of the CBAM taking into consideration the main features of the carbon market. This study constructed two variable price resource allocation models and examined the allowance allocation strategies to mitigate the negative influences of the EU CBAM in the short and long term from the perspective of the carbon market. Both models were applied to the steel industry’s allowance allocation in provinces of China’s mainland. The results show that: (1) When China’s carbon price is constant in the short run and rises in the long run, the EU CBAM will reduce the cost efficiency of the steel industry. (2) The higher the quantity of steel products exported from China to the EU, the greater the decrease in cost efficiency of the Chinese steel industry, and the higher the level of carbon price in China the more stable the cost efficiency of the steel industry. (3) Optimizing allowance allocation through the carbon market can effectively alleviate the negative impact of the EU CBAM. (4) By adjusting the energy consumption while optimizing the carbon allowance allocation, it is possible to develop a scheme with less influence on the total allowance. The conclusions of this study provide some policy implications for China to improve its carbon market policy while effectively responding to the challenges of the EU CBAM.

Key words: carbon border adjustment mechanism, carbon market, cost efficiency, carbon allowance allocation, energy consumption, carbon price, non-parametric frontier method

齐绍洲, 徐珍珍, 杨芷萱. 欧盟碳边境调节机制下中国钢铁行业的碳配额分配策略[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(2): 274-286.

QI Shaozhou, XU Zhenzhen, YANG Zhixuan. Carbon allowance allocation strategy in China’s steel industry under the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(2): 274-286.

图/表 10

表1

表2

图1

图2

表3

短期碳配额调整方案（亿t）

$α / %$	情景一	情景二	情景三	情景四	情景五
0.20	13.80	14.01	14.08	14.11	14.13
0.40	13.44	13.83	13.97	14.04	14.08
0.60	13.09	13.66	13.86	13.96	14.02
0.80	12.76	13.49	13.75	13.88	13.97
1.00	12.45	13.32	13.64	13.81	13.91

表3

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

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作者	研究层面	投入	产出	人口或劳动力是投入或产出?	CO₂或温室气体是投入或产出?
Lei等^[41]	省	资本存量、人口和能源消耗	GDP、CO₂	投入	产出
Cai等^[17]	省	CO₂	GDP、人口	产出	投入
Cucchiella等^[32]	国家	温室气体排放、最终能源消耗、可再生能源消耗	GDP、人口	产出	投入
Pang等^[42]	国家	人口、能源消耗	GDP、CO₂	投入	产出
Nolan等^[43]	行业	技术效率	劳动力、非柴油燃料、安全事故和路线里程	产出
Oum等^[44]	行业	劳动力、资本、运营成本和乘客花费的时间	客运公里数、CO₂	投入	产出
Zhang等^[15]	行业	CO₂	能源消耗、工业产值		投入
Ma等^[18]	企业	装机容量、CO₂	发电量		投入

	中国碳价格	欧盟碳价格	能源消费价格
情景一	20	300	752
情景二	40	300	752
情景三	60	300	752
情景四	80	300	752
情景五	100	300	752