国外海岸带韧性研究进展及其对中国的启示

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.02.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

海岸带韧性可为沿海地区应对全球气候变化与人类活动压力的复合风险提供新的理论源泉和分析视角,对保障沿海地区可持续发展安全具有重要意义。本文在解析海岸带韧性概念内涵的基础上,剖析了以社会生态系统、复杂适应系统等理论为支撑的海岸带韧性理论框架,比较了现有4类评价方法,进而厘清了要素型、过程型和复合型3类评价指标体系的特点,阐释了影响海岸带韧性的社会、自然等多维因素及其作用机制,明确了提升海岸带韧性的抵御型、预防型和适应型3类基本策略。基于现有国外研究成果发现,不同学科和理论视角下海岸带韧性要素关系和韧性能力方面的内涵界定有待厘清,从人地耦合与多维时空视角挖掘海岸带韧性过程与作用机制尚存薄弱之处,多重扰动下海岸带韧性的尺度效应和影响机理分析仍存挑战。最后,本文明确了中国海岸带综合风险防范、区域可持续发展的现实诉求,探讨了以概念内涵为引领、系统评价为支撑、机理解析为重点的本土化理论框架构建内容,提出海岸带韧性理论方法在中国海岸带安全预警、政策精细化制定、国土空间规划与海岸带社会治理等方面的应用路径。

关键词: 海岸带韧性, 理论框架, 可持续发展, 韧性机制, 复杂适应系统, 风险治理, 韧性评价, 脆弱性

Abstract:

Coastal resilience provides a new theoretical and analytical perspective for coastal governance to deal with the compound risks of climate change and anthropogenic environmental pressures, which is of great significance to ensure the sustainable development and security of coastal regions. This study first clarified the connotation of the “coastal resilience” concept. On this basis, the main theoretical frameworks, such as the social-ecological system and the complex adaptive system theories that support coastal resilience research, were analyzed. Then, this research focused on four kinds of evaluation methods relevant to coastal resilience, and further clarified three types of indicator systems (element-based, process-based,and composite type), as well as their characteristics. This was followed by an examination of the mechanisms of impact of natural and socioeconomic factors on coastal resilience. Three basic strategies for enhancing coastal resilience, including resistance, prevention, and adaptation,were analyzed and compared. Drawing on the existing international research findings, we found that the definition of coastal resilience in terms of factor-related relationship and resilience ability calls for more attention from different disciplines and theoretical perspectives. From the human-environmental system coupling perspective and the multiple spatiotemporal dimension perspective, it seems that current investigations on the process and mechanism of coastal resilience is still weak, particularly with regards to the scale effect and the mechanism of influence under multiple disturbances. Finally, this study revealed the realistic demands of comprehensive risk prevention and regional sustainable development in coastal areas of China. A localization of theoretical framework was proposed, which should take the connotation of the concept as guidance, the evaluation of the system as a support, and the analysis of mechanisms as the focus. Applications of coastal resilience theories and methods were also proposed, including in coastal safety warning, policy refinement, spatial planning, and coastal risk governance.

Key words: coastal resilience, theoretical framework, sustainable development, resilience mechanism, complex adaptive system, risk governance, resilience assessment, vulnerability

李睿倩, 徐成磊, 李永富, 胡恒. 国外海岸带韧性研究进展及其对中国的启示[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(2): 232-246.

LI Ruiqian, XU Chenglei, LI Yongfu, HU Heng. Progress of international research on coastal resilience and implications for China[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(2): 232-246.

图/表 8

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海岸带韧性指标体系分类及举例

指标体系分类		指标维度	方法	研究地区	灾害类型	尺度	文献来源
要素型评价体系	生态系统要素	植被状况、地形、空间变化、沉积物	GIS空间分析、卫星数据、沉积物分析与滩涂调查	基里巴斯共和国	海平面上升（SLR）、滩涂侵蚀	国家	[52]
	社会系统要素	社会资本、经济资本、物质资本和人力资本	气候灾害韧性框架（CDRI）模型、GIS空间分析	墨西哥湾沿岸县	洪水、飓风、热带风暴等气候灾害	县	[43]
	社会生态系统要素	社会经济、资源环境、风险知识、规划管理、治理能力	焦点小组讨论、访谈、参与式绘图、基准评估方法	泰国、斯里兰卡、印度尼西亚、印度和马尔代夫	包括人类行为和自然事件引起的缓发型和突发型灾害	国际	[29]
过程型评价体系		驱动、压力、状态、影响、响应（DPSIR）	驱动—压力—状态—影响—响应（DPSIR）模型、生态网络分析方法	中国27个沿海城市	未来气候变化下的威胁	城市	[49]
过程型评价体系		确立危险源头、途径、接收者、风险降低措施、影响/结果、恢复	快速范围审查（QSR）、源头—途径—接收者—结果（SPRC）模型	英国东安格利亚	洪水、海水侵蚀	区域	[50]
复合型评价体系	过程型+社会生态系统要素	4个阶段（预防、恢复、缓冲、适应）和3个领域（社会经济、自然资源、生态环境）	海岸带城市韧性评估矩阵	中国深圳大鹏新区	无特定灾害类型	城市	[9]
	过程型+社会系统要素	3个阶段（暴露、破坏、恢复）和居住于海平面6 m以下人口、人口密度、人类发展指数、贫困线以下人口百分比、基尼系数、人均用电量、道路密度、通信	韧性推理测量（RIM）模型、制图和GIS分析	加勒比海地区	飓风和相关的气候变化灾害	区域	[44]
	尺度型+社会生态系统要素	4个尺度（城市、城郊、城市网络和周边农村地区）和社会经济背景、物质环境、环境背景、制度背景、气候变化危害	海岸带城市韧性综合框架、GIS分析	尼罗河三角洲	海平面上升（SLR）	区域	[51]

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学科视角	海岸带韧性内涵解读	来源
地貌学	海岸带区域遭受外界扰动后吸收、抵御、恢复海岸地貌的能力,关注海岸带地形地貌与水文、地质等驱动因素间的相互作用	Piégay等^[27]
生态学	海岸带生态系统受扰动影响下维持系统功能的自组织能力,其判断标准往往和当地生物多样性、生态系统结构与功能等相关联	Klein等^[28]
社会学	海岸带社区预防、计划、吸收、恢复和适应负面影响事件的能力	Lam等^[33]
	沿海社区基于区域基础设施与资源可持续管理来响应气候变化的适应能力	The Nature Conservancy ^[34]
	沿海家庭、社区、城市适应和响应环境、社会、经济变化的能力,其韧性由社区发展程度、灾害管理与海岸带管理三部分构成	US Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program^[29]
灾害学	海岸带系统抵御扰动、在扰动发生时快速吸收与恢复的能力,研究侧重于特定灾害事件对海岸带社会生态系统的情景模拟与预测	Song等^[30]
	海岸带系统减少灾害风险,在灾害期间与灾后迅速恢复的能力	Almutairi等^[35]
	海岸带韧性是海岸带系统的内在能力,是海岸带系统适应海平面上升、突发事件及人类影响等扰动的同时维持系统功能的长期能力	EUROSION^[36]
规划学	海岸带系统在各类缓发性扰动和突发性冲击下预防、抵御、恢复与转型的能力,提倡将海岸带韧性作为设计和规划的主要原则	Beatley等^[32]

评价方法	基本原理	优点	缺陷
综合指数法	对海岸带韧性要素进行拆解,建立海岸带韧性指标体系,进行定性与定量分析得到韧性指数	计算过程相对简单	权重赋值和指标选取具有一定的主观性
韧性计分卡法	识别海岸带韧性系统各要素,建立韧性评分表计分卡,确定海岸带韧性指数	可以评估绩效、目标进展,有效反映利益相关人员对海岸带韧性的认识	存在信息误差,难以统一要素关联
模型法	用数学公式或矩阵简化风险与韧性等相关因素的关系	便于预估和理解各要素之间的关系和相互作用	联系不真实,易忽略要素突变
工具集	上述3种方法中一种或多种方法的组合	兼具上述3种方法优点	兼具上述3种方法缺陷,同时方法选择难以统一

年代	主要理论框架	内容侧重	指标体系	技术方法	策略选择
1990s—2005年	特定灾害框架	生态、地貌等自然维度	系统要素型	模型模拟、阈值分析	防灾抗灾工程建设等抵御型策略
2005—2015年	社会生态系统、复杂适应系统	社会、基础设施、规划等社会维度	系统要素型和阶段过程型	综合评价指数、韧性计分卡法、情境分析	海岸带规划、自然基础设施、生态修复等预防型策略
2016年至今	社会生态系统、复杂适应系统、适应性治理	多维度韧性及作用机制,开展韧性治理	阶段过程型和复合型	工具集、机器学习、大数据分析、时空分析技术	抵御型策略、预防型策略与适应型策略相结合