电价调整对宏观经济及产业结构的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.01.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来中国电价的普遍性、连续性下调可能诱导资源向高耗能产业聚集,不利于产业结构优化。本文使用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型分别在电价管制和电价市场化两类情景下分析电价调整对高耗能产业及新动能产业的影响。研究发现：①对国民经济各行业的“普遍性降电价”会导致高耗能产业增加值占比出现较大幅度上升,而仅对新动能产业的“精准性降电价”可以在促进新动能产业发展的同时避免高耗能产业盲目过快增长。②若同时对高耗能产业提高差别电价等绿色电价加价标准,虽然有效降低了高耗能产业产出,但也会对新动能制造业产生不利影响。③若政府将电力行业利润或电力消费税收入用于补贴新动能产业投资,不仅可以培育壮大经济发展新动能,还可能产生社会福利上升的双重红利效应。因此,应对新动能产业“精准性降电价”,加大高耗能产业差别电价实施力度,进一步发挥电价杠杆作用。

关键词: 电价调整, 新动能产业, 高耗能产业, 差别电价, 双重红利, 可计算一般均衡模型, 中国

Abstract:

In recent years, the universal and continuous reduction of electricity prices in China may induce the concentration of resources in high energy-consuming industries. It is not conducive to the optimization of industrial structure. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of electricity price adjustment on the overall economy and the new kinetic energy industries under the assumption of electricity price regulation and electricity price marketization, respectively. The results show that: The universal reduction of electricity prices in various industries leads to a significant increase in the proportion of the added value of high energy-consuming industries. Targeted reduction of electricity prices for the new kinetic energy industries can promote the development of the new kinetic energy industries and avoid blind and excessive growth of the high energy-consuming industries. If the green electricity price standards such as differential electricity prices are raised for high energy-consuming industries, although the output of high energy-consuming industries is effectively reduced, it will also harm the new kinetic energy manufacturing industries. If the government uses the power industry profits or electricity consumption tax revenue to subsidize the new energy industry’s investment, it can not only cultivate the new kinetic energy of economic development but also produce the double dividend effect of social welfare improvement. Therefore, the government should “accurately reduce electricity prices” for new kinetic energy industries, strengthen the implementation of differential electricity prices for high energy- consuming industries, and further improve the role of electricity price leverage.

Key words: electricity price adjustment, new kinetic energy industries, energy-intensive industries, differential electricity prices, double dividend, computable general equilibrium model, China

李虹, 王帅, 李晨光, 陈挺. 电价调整对宏观经济及产业结构的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(1): 156-168.

LI Hong, WANG shuai, LI Chenguang, CHEN Ting. Impact of electricity price adjustment on macro economy and industrial structure[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(1): 156-168.

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	活动	商品	劳动	资本	居民	企业	政府	投资	国外	总计
活动		2319804							175694	2495498
商品	1573441				347363		148406	419228		2488439
劳动	475027									475027
资本	350711									350711
居民			475027	39900		7933	27012		540	550412
企业				305321						305321
政府	96319	19727			13872	35324			-159	165082
储蓄					189177	262065	-10778		-21235	419228
国外		148907		5489			442			154839
总计	2495498	2488439	475027	350711	550412	305321	165082	419228	154839	7404557

行业	2018IO表代码	主要包括行业
S1农林牧渔业	1-5	农林牧渔业
S2煤炭开采和加工业	6,42	煤炭开采业;煤炭加工业
S3石油开采和加工业	7*,41	石油开采业;精炼石油加工业
S4天然气开采和加工业	7*,99	天然气开采业;燃气生产和供应业
S5其他采矿业	8-11	金属矿采选业;非金属矿采选业;其他采矿业
S6劳动密集型制造业	12-40,95-97	食品加工及烟草制造业;纺织业;木材加工和家具制造业;造纸印刷和文教体育制造业;其他制造业
S7高耗能产业	43-49,51-66	化学工业;非金属矿物制品业;金属冶炼和压延加工业;金属制品业
S8新动能制造业	50,71,76-78,84-85,88-94	医药制造业;文化办公机械制造业;医疗仪器设备制造业;电工机械等其他专用设备制造业;汽车制造业;光缆与电池制造业;通信设备、计算机和其他电子设备制造业
S9技术密集型制造业	67-70,72-75,79-83,86-87	通用和专用设备制造业;交通运输设备制造业;电气机械和器材制造业
S10电力生产和供应业	98	电力生产和供应业
S11水的生产和供应业	100	水的生产和供应业
S12建筑业	101-104	建筑业
S13服务业	105-120,129-130,135,137-149	批发和零售业;交通运输、仓储和邮政业;住宿和餐饮业;房地产和租赁业;居民服务业;教育;卫生和社会工作;文化、体育和娱乐
S14新动能服务业	121-128,131-134,136	信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业;金融业;商务服务业;研发和技术服务业;生态保护和环境治理

类型	情景	情景设定
电价管制	CTL1	电价下降10%
	CTL2	仅新动能产业的电价下降10%
	CTL3	新动能产业电价下降10%,高耗能产业电价上涨10%
	CTL4	新动能产业电价下降10%,高耗能产业电价上涨10%,电力行业超额利润用于补贴新动能产业投资
电价市场化	MKT1	对电价补贴10%
	MKT2	仅对新动能产业的电价补贴10%
	MKT3	对新动能产业电价补贴10%,对高耗能产业电价征税10%
	MKT4	对新动能产业电价补贴10%,对高耗能产业电价征税10%,税收收入用于补贴新动能产业投资
	MKT_DD1	对新动能产业电价补贴10%,对高耗能产业电价征税10%,税收收入一半用于补贴新动能产业投资,一半用于降低居民所得税
	MKT_DD2	对新动能产业电价补贴10%,对高耗能产业电价征税10%,税收收入一半用于补贴新动能产业投资,一半用于降低企业所得税
	MKT_DD3	对新动能产业电价补贴10%,对高耗能产业电价征税10%,税收收入一半用于补贴新动能产业投资,一半用于降低生产间接税

行业	CTL1		CTL2		CTL3		CTL4
行业	产出	价格	产出	价格	产出	价格	产出	价格
S1农林牧渔业	0.31	-0.18	-0.00	0.00	-0.13	0.07	-0.14	0.07
S2煤炭开采和加工业	2.30	-0.41	0.34	0.01	-1.19	0.06	-1.13	0.06
S3石油开采和加工业	-0.49	-0.17	-0.29	0.02	-0.83	0.02	-0.84	0.03
S4天然气开采和加工业	-0.19	-0.24	-0.21	0.02	-0.68	0.01	-0.70	0.02
S5其他采矿业	1.73	-0.85	0.00	0.01	-0.64	0.09	-0.57	0.10
S6劳动密集型制造业	0.50	-0.26	-0.01	0.01	-0.20	0.10	-0.20	0.11
S7高耗能产业	0.96	-0.77	0.03	0.01	-0.65	0.73	-0.57	0.74
S8新动能制造业	1.16	-0.36	0.56	-0.17	0.04	0.02	0.45	0.02
S9技术密集型制造业	1.47	-0.46	0.07	-0.01	-0.51	0.24	-0.47	0.25
S10电力生产和供应业	9.93	设定	1.00	设定	-0.23	设定	-0.19	设定
S11水的生产和供应业	1.00	-1.40	0.03	0.01	-0.08	0.08	-0.09	0.08
S12建筑业	-0.39	-0.46	-0.14	-0.01	0.14	0.28	0.16	0.28
S13服务业	-0.43	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	0.12	0.00	-0.01	0.01
S14新动能服务业	-0.08	-0.06	0.02	-0.08	0.10	-0.07	0.22	-0.06

	CTL1	CTL2	CTL3	CTL4
新动能产业增加值占比/%	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.21
高耗能产业增加值占比/%	0.25	0.03	-0.01	0.06
第一产业增加值占比/%	0.01	-0.03	-0.07	-0.10
第二产业增加值占比/%	0.63	0.09	-0.14	-0.06
第三产业增加值占比/%	-0.47	-0.06	0.12	0.06
电力行业利润/亿元	-4367.11	-524.18	1078.66	1075.28