中国省域科技创新与旅游业高质量发展水平及其互动关系

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.01.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科技创新是引领旅游业高质量发展的重要驱动力。首先,基于修正后熵值法分别评价中国30个省（区、市）2004—2018年的科技创新与旅游业高质量发展的水平;其次,采用耦合协调模型探析二者的耦合协调状态;最后,运用面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型佐证二者的互动关系。结果表明：①2004—2018年,中国省域科技创新水平与旅游业高质量发展水平均呈波动上升态势,二者的均值分别由2004年的0.197和0.337上升为2018年的0.206和0.363,且均呈现出显著的空间异质性;②研究期内,中国省域科技创新与旅游业高质量发展处于基本协调状态,且耦合协调度均值表现出“东部>中部>东北>西部”的空间分布格局;③科技创新与旅游业高质量发展不仅具有强自我发展惯性,且二者存在显著的良性互动关系。基于以上结论,本文提出相关建议,以期为旅游业高质量发展的推进,及科技创新与旅游业高质量发展的协同优化提供一定借鉴。

关键词: 科技创新, 旅游业高质量发展, 耦合协调, PVAR模型, 中国

Abstract:

Scientific and technological innovation is an important driving force for the high-quality development of tourism. First, the level of scientific and technological innovation and high-quality development of tourism in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of China’s mainland from 2004 to 2018 was evaluated based on the modified entropy method. Second, the coupling and coordination model was used to analyze the coupling and coordination state of the two. Finally, explored the interaction between them by using PVAR model. The results show that: (1) From 2004 to 2018, the level of scientific and technological innovation and the level of high-quality development of tourism showed a trend of fluctuation, with the mean values of the two increasing from 0.197 and 0.337 in 2004 to 0.206 and 0.363 in 2018, respectively, presented significant spatial heterogeneity. (2) During the study period, the provincial scientific and technological innovation and high-quality development of tourism in China were basically in a state of coordination; and the mean value of coupling and coordination also showed a spatial pattern of “Eastern region>Central region>Northeastern region>Western region”. (3) Scientific and technological innovation and high-quality development of tourism not only had strong self-development inertia, but also there was a significant positive interaction between them. Based on these conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions in order to provide some reference for the promotion of high-quality development of tourism and the coordination optimization of scientific and technological innovation and high-quality development of tourism.

Key words: scientific and technological innovation, high-quality development of tourism, coupling and coordination, PVAR model, China

王凯, 郭鑫, 甘畅, 唐小惠, 刘浩龙. 中国省域科技创新与旅游业高质量发展水平及其互动关系[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(1): 114-126.

WANG Kai, GUO Xin, GAN Chang, TANG Xiaohui, LIU Haolong. Provincial scientific & technological innovation and high-quality development of tourism in China and their interactive relationship[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(1): 114-126.

图/表 6

表1

表2

2004—2018年中国省域科技创新与旅游业高质量发展的综合指数与耦合协调度

地区	科技创新						旅游业高质量发展						耦合协调度均值
地区	2004年	2008年	2012年	2016年	2018年	均值	2004年	2008年	2012年	2016年	2018年	均值	耦合协调度均值
北京	0.748	0.777	0.702	0.713	0.684	0.728	0.445	0.404	0.278	0.389	0.408	0.375	0.722
天津	0.250	0.220	0.218	0.241	0.208	0.227	0.333	0.421	0.358	0.355	0.317	0.353	0.531
河北	0.140	0.113	0.116	0.134	0.135	0.123	0.340	0.257	0.318	0.350	0.343	0.305	0.439
山西	0.086	0.080	0.076	0.065	0.073	0.077	0.281	0.290	0.306	0.306	0.320	0.272	0.380
内蒙古	0.066	0.036	0.043	0.036	0.031	0.041	0.390	0.403	0.363	0.452	0.402	0.391	0.354
辽宁	0.309	0.226	0.192	0.171	0.162	0.211	0.336	0.415	0.346	0.285	0.336	0.335	0.513
吉林	0.115	0.100	0.092	0.087	0.088	0.100	0.284	0.378	0.292	0.356	0.344	0.312	0.418
黑龙江	0.151	0.127	0.116	0.091	0.075	0.115	0.344	0.447	0.297	0.357	0.369	0.341	0.443
上海	0.404	0.473	0.407	0.401	0.390	0.428	0.403	0.401	0.293	0.274	0.329	0.323	0.607
江苏	0.436	0.566	0.654	0.661	0.583	0.590	0.444	0.476	0.338	0.360	0.383	0.391	0.690
浙江	0.400	0.485	0.446	0.515	0.462	0.464	0.458	0.474	0.365	0.391	0.390	0.403	0.657
安徽	0.117	0.137	0.203	0.276	0.244	0.187	0.293	0.384	0.361	0.367	0.366	0.345	0.500
福建	0.171	0.148	0.154	0.189	0.193	0.165	0.452	0.453	0.350	0.435	0.395	0.418	0.512
江西	0.089	0.079	0.077	0.119	0.133	0.094	0.280	0.393	0.347	0.405	0.381	0.350	0.424
山东	0.329	0.374	0.340	0.371	0.337	0.352	0.388	0.425	0.348	0.374	0.399	0.373	0.601
河南	0.144	0.153	0.159	0.185	0.194	0.166	0.348	0.361	0.285	0.302	0.363	0.313	0.477
湖北	0.233	0.222	0.221	0.276	0.279	0.242	0.273	0.312	0.306	0.340	0.304	0.299	0.517
湖南	0.183	0.168	0.178	0.181	0.199	0.179	0.367	0.382	0.294	0.366	0.368	0.348	0.499
广东	0.556	0.577	0.519	0.687	0.718	0.594	0.547	0.559	0.496	0.551	0.574	0.540	0.752
广西	0.085	0.067	0.078	0.078	0.079	0.077	0.271	0.325	0.306	0.374	0.412	0.318	0.395
海南	0.041	0.016	0.031	0.021	0.023	0.025	0.230	0.315	0.211	0.277	0.306	0.283	0.286
重庆	0.173	0.140	0.129	0.151	0.158	0.149	0.258	0.351	0.303	0.304	0.349	0.294	0.456
四川	0.205	0.209	0.191	0.228	0.242	0.213	0.324	0.225	0.340	0.372	0.347	0.315	0.508
贵州	0.050	0.039	0.046	0.056	0.075	0.051	0.305	0.318	0.278	0.387	0.345	0.309	0.354
云南	0.070	0.053	0.055	0.062	0.067	0.059	0.290	0.382	0.314	0.398	0.363	0.327	0.372
陕西	0.192	0.173	0.182	0.213	0.203	0.192	0.348	0.368	0.324	0.364	0.404	0.332	0.501
甘肃	0.064	0.058	0.063	0.055	0.057	0.061	0.304	0.218	0.273	0.261	0.298	0.269	0.357
青海	0.016	0.010	0.004	0.002	0.006	0.009	0.223	0.173	0.224	0.320	0.275	0.242	0.202
宁夏	0.035	0.024	0.027	0.028	0.049	0.031	0.252	0.265	0.155	0.343	0.270	0.253	0.295
新疆	0.044	0.029	0.033	0.033	0.028	0.033	0.299	0.299	0.327	0.358	0.443	0.323	0.319
东部地区	0.347	0.375	0.359	0.393	0.373	0.370	0.404	0.418	0.335	0.376	0.384	0.376	0.580
中部地区	0.142	0.140	0.152	0.184	0.187	0.158	0.307	0.354	0.316	0.347	0.350	0.321	0.466
西部地区	0.091	0.076	0.077	0.086	0.090	0.083	0.297	0.302	0.292	0.358	0.355	0.307	0.374
东北地区	0.192	0.151	0.133	0.117	0.108	0.142	0.321	0.414	0.312	0.333	0.350	0.329	0.458
全国均值	0.197	0.196	0.192	0.211	0.206	0.199	0.337	0.362	0.313	0.359	0.363	0.335	—

表2

表3

表4

图1

表5

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目标层	准则层（权重）	指标（方向）	权重
旅游业高质量发展	旅游经济稳定性（0.158）	旅游总收入增长率（+）	0.037
		旅游总收入增长波动率（+）	0.041
		旅游接待总人次增长率（+）	0.039
		旅游接待总人次增长波动率（+）	0.041
	旅游经营效率（0.171）	旅游企业劳动生产率（+）	0.050
		旅游劳动弹性系数（-）	0.016
		旅游人均消费（+）	0.065
		旅游外汇增长率（+）	0.040
	旅游产业结构合理化（0.022）	旅游产业结构合理化指数（-）	0.022
	旅游产业结构高级化（0.103）	高弹性收入占旅游收入的比重（+）	0.039
	旅游产业结构高级化（0.103）	入境旅游收入占旅游收入的比重（+）	0.064
	旅游资源质量（0.385）	旅游资源丰度（+）	0.032
		旅游资源品味度（+）	0.033
		入境旅游人次（+）	0.147
		入境游客平均停留天数（+）	0.088
		景区收入与地区旅游收入之比（+）	0.084
	生态环境质量（0.161）	建成区绿化覆盖率（+）	0.024
		地区森林覆盖率（+）	0.024
		生活垃圾无害化处理率（+）	0.048
		污染治理投资总额（+）	0.065
科技创新	科技创新投入（0.417）	R&D内部经费支出（+）	0.095
		R&D人员全时当量（+）	0.081
		R&D经费投入强度（+）	0.071
		财政科技占比（+）	0.077
		高等院校在校生人数（+）	0.041
		R&D科技活动课题数量（+）	0.052
	科技创新产出（0.583）	技术市场成交额（+）	0.127
		国内三种专利申请受理数（+）	0.121
		国内三种专利申请授权数（+）	0.196
		国外主要检索工具收录的科技论文数（+）	0.098
		新产品销售收入占比（+）	0.041

变量名	LLC	IPS	变量	LLC	IPS
TI	-3.079***(0.001)	0.657(0.744)	D(TI)	-5.450***(0.000)	-6.814***(0.000)
HQT	-2.870***(0.001)	-4.817***(0.000)	D(HQT)	-9.346***(0.000)	-11.447***(0.000)

变量	h_TI			h_HQT
变量	系数	标准误	P值	系数	标准误	P值
L1.h_TI	0.938	0.125	0.000***	1.316	0.483	0.006***
L1.h_HQT	0.333	0.161	0.038**	1.290	0.522	0.013**

期数	TI的方程		HQT的方程
期数	TI	HQT	TI	HQT
1	1.000	0.000	0.024	0.976
2	0.972	0.028	0.075	0.925
3	0.938	0.062	0.130	0.870
4	0.908	0.092	0.179	0.821
5	0.884	0.116	0.220	0.780
6	0.866	0.134	0.253	0.747
7	0.852	0.148	0.279	0.721
8	0.841	0.159	0.301	0.699
9	0.833	0.167	0.318	0.682
10	0.826	0.174	0.332	0.668