资源科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 97-113.doi: 10.18402/resci.2022.01.08

• 矿产资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同消费情景下中国新能源汽车锂回收潜力

郑林昌(), 张亚楠, 李泽阳, 赵颖   

  1. 河北大学经济学院,保定 071002
  • 收稿日期:2021-04-25 修回日期:2021-06-29 出版日期:2022-01-25 发布日期:2022-03-25
  • 作者简介:郑林昌,男,山东阳谷人,博士,教授,研究方向为资源利用、生态保护与可持续发展。E-mail: zhenglinchang@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目(20ATJ004);中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20221975)

Lithium recovery potential of new energy vehicles in China under different consumption scenarios

ZHENG Linchang(), ZHANG Yanan, LI Zeyang, ZHAO Ying   

  1. College of Economics, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China
  • Received:2021-04-25 Revised:2021-06-29 Online:2022-01-25 Published:2022-03-25

摘要:

新能源汽车是锂资源消费主力,回收新能源汽车报废锂电池中的锂对于增加锂供给具有重要意义。本文通过建立锂电池储电量与锂消费对应关系,利用新能源汽车生产大数据,测算不同类型新能源汽车、锂电池单位储电量锂消费,并在对锂电池退役相关参数作修正的基础上,测算了不同情景下中国新能源汽车的锂回收潜力,结果显示:①虽然中国新能源汽车的锂回收潜力规模不大,但增速快;②新能源汽车退役锂电池直接报废是锂回收潜力的主要来源,退役锂电池再利用后报废产生的锂回收潜力较小;③从车辆类型看,过去新能源客车产生的锂回收潜力最大,未来新能源乘用车产生的锂回收潜力将最大;从锂电池类型看,过去报废磷酸铁锂电池产生的锂回收潜力最大,未来报废三元材料锂电池产生的锂回收潜力将最大。为确保新能源汽车锂回收由潜力变成现实,建议加快制定强制性、差异性锂电池回收政策体系,加快推动锂电池回收由政府推动向市场推动转变。

关键词: 新能源汽车, 锂电池, 报废, 回收潜力, 情景分析, Weibull分布

Abstract:

New energy vehicles are the main consumer of lithium resources, and the recycling of lithium from scrap lithium batteries for new energy vehicles is of great significance for increasing lithium supply. In this study, by establishing the relationship between lithium battery power storage and lithium consumption and using big data of new energy vehicle production, we measured the lithium consumption per unit storage capacity of different types of new energy vehicles and lithium battery. Finally, based on the modification of parameters related to lithium battery decommissioning, we analyzed the lithium recovery potential of new energy vehicles under different scenarios in China. The results show that although the lithium recovery potential of China’s new energy vehicles is not high, it is growing at a fast speed. Lithium recovery potential from direct scrapping of lithium batteries is dominant, and lithium recovery potential resulting from reuse of retired lithium battery is not high. From the perspective of vehicle type, the lithium recovery potential generated by new energy buses is the largest in the past, and the lithium recovery potential generated by new energy passenger cars in the future will be the largest,from the perspective of lithium battery type, the lithium recovery potential generated by scrap iron phosphate lithium batteries is the largest in the past, and the lithium recovery potential generated by scrap ternary material lithium batteries in the future will be the largest. In order to ensure that the lithium recycling of new energy vehicles becomes a reality from the potential, we recommend to speed up the formulation of mandatory and differentiated lithium battery recycling policies, and speed up the transformation of lithium battery recycling from government driven to market driven.

Key words: new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, scrap, recycling potential, scenario analysis, Weibull distribution