不同消费情景下中国新能源汽车锂回收潜力

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.01.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新能源汽车是锂资源消费主力,回收新能源汽车报废锂电池中的锂对于增加锂供给具有重要意义。本文通过建立锂电池储电量与锂消费对应关系,利用新能源汽车生产大数据,测算不同类型新能源汽车、锂电池单位储电量锂消费,并在对锂电池退役相关参数作修正的基础上,测算了不同情景下中国新能源汽车的锂回收潜力,结果显示：①虽然中国新能源汽车的锂回收潜力规模不大,但增速快;②新能源汽车退役锂电池直接报废是锂回收潜力的主要来源,退役锂电池再利用后报废产生的锂回收潜力较小;③从车辆类型看,过去新能源客车产生的锂回收潜力最大,未来新能源乘用车产生的锂回收潜力将最大;从锂电池类型看,过去报废磷酸铁锂电池产生的锂回收潜力最大,未来报废三元材料锂电池产生的锂回收潜力将最大。为确保新能源汽车锂回收由潜力变成现实,建议加快制定强制性、差异性锂电池回收政策体系,加快推动锂电池回收由政府推动向市场推动转变。

关键词: 新能源汽车, 锂电池, 报废, 回收潜力, 情景分析, Weibull分布

Abstract:

New energy vehicles are the main consumer of lithium resources, and the recycling of lithium from scrap lithium batteries for new energy vehicles is of great significance for increasing lithium supply. In this study, by establishing the relationship between lithium battery power storage and lithium consumption and using big data of new energy vehicle production, we measured the lithium consumption per unit storage capacity of different types of new energy vehicles and lithium battery. Finally, based on the modification of parameters related to lithium battery decommissioning, we analyzed the lithium recovery potential of new energy vehicles under different scenarios in China. The results show that although the lithium recovery potential of China’s new energy vehicles is not high, it is growing at a fast speed. Lithium recovery potential from direct scrapping of lithium batteries is dominant, and lithium recovery potential resulting from reuse of retired lithium battery is not high. From the perspective of vehicle type, the lithium recovery potential generated by new energy buses is the largest in the past, and the lithium recovery potential generated by new energy passenger cars in the future will be the largest,from the perspective of lithium battery type, the lithium recovery potential generated by scrap iron phosphate lithium batteries is the largest in the past, and the lithium recovery potential generated by scrap ternary material lithium batteries in the future will be the largest. In order to ensure that the lithium recycling of new energy vehicles becomes a reality from the potential, we recommend to speed up the formulation of mandatory and differentiated lithium battery recycling policies, and speed up the transformation of lithium battery recycling from government driven to market driven.

Key words: new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, scrap, recycling potential, scenario analysis, Weibull distribution

郑林昌, 张亚楠, 李泽阳, 赵颖. 不同消费情景下中国新能源汽车锂回收潜力[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(1): 97-113.

ZHENG Linchang, ZHANG Yanan, LI Zeyang, ZHAO Ying. Lithium recovery potential of new energy vehicles in China under different consumption scenarios[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(1): 97-113.

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年份	磷酸铁锂电池 /（kg/ （kW·h））	三元材料电池 /（kg/ （kW·h））	锰酸锂、钴酸锂电池 /（kg/ （kW·h））
2012	0.1560	0.2460	0.2950
2013	0.1560	0.2460	0.2950
2014	0.1560	0.2337	0.2804
2015	0.1482	0.2132	0.2558
2016	0.1404	0.1927	0.2312
2017	0.1326	0.1722	0.2066
2018	0.1295	0.1574	0.1889
2019	0.1264	0.1550	0.1860
2020	0.1248	0.1525	0.1830
2021	0.1232	0.1501	0.1801
2022	0.1217	0.1476	0.1771
2023	0.1201	0.1451	0.1742
2024	0.1186	0.1427	0.1712
2025	0.1170	0.1402	0.1683

车辆类型	电池类型	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年	2023年	2024年	2025年
插电式混合动力乘用车	三元材料电池	93.86	98.82	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
	磷酸铁锂电池	6.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	锰酸锂电池	0.00	1.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
插电式混合动力客车	磷酸铁锂电池	29.42	24.38	20.57	20.48	20.38	20.29	20.19	20.10	20.00
	锰酸锂电池	70.57	75.62	61.38	59.48	57.59	55.69	53.79	51.90	50.00
	钴酸锂电池	0.00	0.00	18.05	20.04	22.03	24.02	26.02	28.01	30.00
插电式混合动力专用车	三元材料电池	0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
纯电动乘用车	磷酸铁锂电池	17.79	13.09	6.45	5.37	4.30	3.22	2.15	1.07	0.00
纯电动乘用车	三元材料电池	80.29	86.89	93.52	94.60	95.68	96.76	97.84	98.92	100.00
纯电动客车	磷酸铁锂电池	89.37	89.09	93.00	94.17	95.33	96.50	97.67	98.83	100.00
	锰酸锂电池	3.44	4.43	2.36	1.97	1.57	1.18	0.79	0.39	0.00
	钴酸锂电池	6.70	6.48	4.64	3.86	3.09	2.32	1.55	0.77	0.00
纯电动专用车	磷酸铁锂电池	25.15	39.94	70.90	72.41	73.93	75.45	76.97	78.48	80.00
	锰酸锂电池	5.72	6.19	2.05	1.70	1.36	1.02	0.68	0.34	0.00
	三元材料电池	69.12	53.87	27.06	25.88	24.71	23.53	22.35	21.18	20.00

车辆类型	装配电池类型	循环次数/次	理论年限/年	设定年期
车辆类型	装配电池类型	循环次数/次	理论年限/年	2012—2018年	2019—2020年	2021—2025年
乘用车	三元材料电池	800	10.96	8	9	10
	磷酸铁锂电池	2000	27.40	10	11	12
	锰酸锂电池	600	8.22	6	7	8
	钴酸锂电池	800	10.96	9	10	11
客车	三元材料电池	800	2.19	3	3	3
	磷酸铁锂电池	2000	5.48	5	6	6
	锰酸锂电池	600	1.64	2	2	2
	钴酸锂电池	800	2.19	2	2	2
专用车	三元材料电池	800	3.07	3	3	3
	磷酸铁锂电池	2000	7.67	5	6	7
	锰酸锂电池	600	2.30	2	2	2
	钴酸锂电池	800	3.07	3	3	3

	12年	11年	10年	9年	8年	7年	6年	5年	3年	2年
1年	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.027	0.680
2年	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.002	0.005	0.012	0.039	0.862	0.320
3年	0.001	0.002	0.004	0.008	0.018	0.041	0.106	0.307	0.111
4年	0.006	0.011	0.020	0.039	0.080	0.178	0.386	0.594
5年	0.021	0.036	0.064	0.121	0.230	0.401	0.446	0.060
6年	0.054	0.090	0.155	0.259	0.377	0.333	0.050
7年	0.114	0.179	0.268	0.338	0.256	0.042
8年	0.194	0.264	0.296	0.202	0.037
9年	0.251	0.257	0.163	0.033
10年	0.222	0.134	0.030
11年	0.112	0.027
12年	0.025