突发风险下关键矿产供应链网络节点韧性评估——以镍矿产品为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.01.07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

关键矿产资源作为国家产业发展的重要物质基础,其全球贸易网络频繁受到突发风险的冲击,对进口依赖型国家的资源供给安全造成威胁。本文从关键矿产资源全球贸易网络和产业链投入产出角度出发,基于多层复杂网络理论构建关键矿产资源全球贸易模型,并提出风险传导机制对贸易网络突发风险进行仿真分析,最后运用多风险场景仿真结果对网络节点的风险韧性进行评价。以镍矿资源产业链中6种产品为例,运用2018年全球贸易数据进行实证分析。研究表明：①中国镍矿资源进口结构极不均衡,对供给安全造成了极大的隐患。相对下游产品,中国对镍矿石、镍锍等产业链上游产品需求更为刚性,价格敏感度小。②风险所造成的价格波动对中国进口损失影响并不显著,而对风险韧性影响最大的因素是资源竞争能力,这与进口结构、占风险源出口份额、以及国家产业对于额外成本的转嫁能力有直接的关系。③同一国家在面对不同风险源时表现出不同的风险韧性。当风险源分别为印度尼西亚和菲律宾时,其风险规模每上升1%,中国因此而承受的镍矿资源进口损失规模将分别上升1.74%和1.77%,中国在面对来自菲律宾的突发风险时韧性较低。评价节点国家在关键矿产资源供应链网络中的的风险韧性,对把控资源供给宏观形势,提高资源政策针对性具有重要意义。

关键词: 多层复杂网络理论, 关键矿产, 供应链, 风险, 韧性, 镍矿产品

Abstract:

As an important material basis for national industrial development, critical mineral resources global trade network is frequently impacted by emergent risks, which pose a threat to the resource supply security of import-dependent countries. From the perspective of the global trade network and the input- output relationships of the industrial chain and based on the multi-layer complex network theory, this study modeled the global trade network of critical mineral resources as well as the risk transmission mechanism for emergent risk simulation, and proposed a resilience measurement for nodes in the network using the results obtained from multiple risk scenarios simulation. Taking six products in the nickel mineral resource industrial chain as example, using the global trade data of 2018 for empirical analysis. The research shows that: (1) The import structure of Nickel resources in China is extremely unbalanced, causing great potential risk to the supply security of nickel resources in China. China's demand for nickel ore, nickel matte and other upstream industrial chain products is rigid, and the price sensitivity is low. (2) The price fluctuation caused by risk has no significant affect on China's import loss, while the most influential factor on risk resilience is resource competitiveness, which is directly related to import structure, export share of risk sources, and the ability of national industry to transfer additional costs. Due to the difference in competitiveness, the Philippines will cause greater supply risk of nickel resources to China than Indonesia. (3) The same country has different risk resilience in the face of different sources of risk. When the sources of risk are Indonesia and the Philippines, the loss of nickel resource imports to China will increase by 1.74% and 1.77% when the risk scale increases by 1%. China is less resilient in the face of emergent risks from the Philippines. The evaluation of single country’s risk resilience in critical mineral resource supply chain network is of significance to the control of macroscopical resource supply situation and the pertinence of resource policies.

Key words: multi-layer complex network, critical mineral resources, supply chain, risk, resilience, nickel products

沈曦, 郭海湘, 成金华. 突发风险下关键矿产供应链网络节点韧性评估——以镍矿产品为例[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(1): 85-96.

SHEN Xi, GUO Haixiang, CHENG Jinhua. The resilience of nodes in critical mineral resources supply chain networks under emergent risk: Take nickel products as an example[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(1): 85-96.

图/表 11

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图3

表1

表2

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表3

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图7

表4

不同风险源下中国风险韧性值计算结果

风险源	显著水平	n	k（解释变量个数）	D.W.值	d_l	d_u	R方	调整R方	风险韧性值（ $- β 2$ ）
印度尼西亚	1%	9	2	0.989	0.408	1.389	0.996	0.995	-1.74
菲律宾	1%	9	2	1.570	0.408	1.389	0.988	0.984	-1.77

表4

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HS海关编码	商品名称	含镍量/%	HS海关编码	商品名称	含镍量/%
2604	镍矿砂及其精矿	5	283324	镍的硫酸盐	21
7501	镍锍及镍冶炼其他中间产品	32	720260	镍铁	30
282540	镍的氧化物和氢氧化物	80	282735	氯化镍	24