资源科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 70-84.doi: 10.18402/resci.2022.01.06

• 矿产资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球稀土进口竞争格局分析及潜在贸易联系预测

祝孔超1,3(), 赵媛1,2,3(), 姚亚兵4, 崔盼盼1,3, 鄢继尧1,3   

  1. 1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023
    2. 南京师范大学金陵女子学院,南京 210097
    3. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023
    4. 兰州理工大学计算机与通信学院,兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-28 修回日期:2021-06-05 出版日期:2022-01-25 发布日期:2022-03-25
  • 通讯作者: 赵媛,女,江苏南京人,博士,教授,主要研究方向为能源地理与区域可持续发展。E-mail: zhaoyuan@njnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:祝孔超,男,河南信阳人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为能源地理与区域可持续发展。E-mail: kongchao8880@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41971248)

Global rare earth import competition pattern and prediction for potential trade links

ZHU Kongchao1,3(), ZHAO Yuan1,2,3(), YAO Yabing4, CUI Panpan1,3, YAN Jiyao1,3   

  1. 1. School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
    2. Ginling College, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, China
    3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
    4. School of Computer and Communication, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2020-10-28 Revised:2021-06-05 Online:2022-01-25 Published:2022-03-25

摘要:

稀土是一个国家经济社会发展极其重要的战略资源,从长时间尺度分析其进口竞争格局并预测未来潜在的贸易联系可为稀土进出口国制定和调整稀土贸易政策提供参考。以稀土(HS:280530)为研究对象,运用复杂网络方法,构建1990—2018年全球稀土进口竞争网络,分析全球稀土进口竞争格局、演变特征,大洲、国家间竞争特点以及对中国稀土的竞争状况。然后,使用基于局部信息相似性的链路预测算法,揭示稀土贸易联系动机,预测潜在贸易联系。结果显示:①全球稀土进口竞争网络规模有所扩大,竞争的全球化程度有所提高且呈现“紧密性”;②大洲间竞争关系及强度主要分布在欧洲内部、亚洲内部以及欧洲与亚洲之间,国家间竞争强度高度集中于少数竞争关系;稀土进口大国之间的竞争是全球稀土进口竞争格局的最重要组成部分,主导着竞争格局的形成演化;日本与其他稀土进口国竞争最为激烈;③受中国稀土生产出口政策等因素影响,稀土进口国竞争全球和中国稀土由“日趋激烈”向“总体和缓”转变;竞争强度高度集中于中国,稀土进口国竞争中国稀土最为激烈;④优先链接是稀土进出口国的结构性贸易联系动机。未来,美国与比利时、日本与德国等国家之间建立稀土贸易联系的可能性大,瑞典等国可能与中国建立稀土贸易联系。

关键词: 稀土, 复杂网络, 竞争格局, 链路预测, 潜在贸易联系, 联系动机, 中国

Abstract:

Rare earth is an extremely important strategic resource for the economic and social development of a country, and analyzing its import competition pattern from a long temporal scale and predicting its potential trade links can provide some references for rare earth importers and exporters in formulating and adjusting rare earth trade policies. Taking rare earth (HS: 280530) as the research object, this study constructed the global rare earth import competition network from 1990 to 2018 by applying the complex network method, then the global rare earth import competition pattern and characteristics of change, inter-continental and inter-country competition conditions, and the competition situation for China were analyzed. On this basis, the link prediction algorithms based on local information similarity were used to investigate the link motivation of rare earth trade and predict the potential trade links. The results show that: (1) The scale of global rare earth import competition network has expanded and the degree of competition globalization has increased. The competition network presents the characteristic of “compactness”; (2) The competition relationships between continents and high competition intensity mainly existed within Europe, within Asia, and between Europe and Asia. The distribution of high competition intensity between countries is highly concentrated in a few competition relationships. The competition between large rare earth importers constitutes the most important part of the global rare earth import competition pattern and dominates the formation and change of this pattern. The competition between Japan and other countries is of the highest intensity; (3) Affected by China’s rare earth production and export policies and other factors, the competition intensity for rare earth in the whole world and in China has changed from increasingly fierce to overall moderate. High global competition intensity is concentrated on China and the rare earth importers have the most intense competition for China’s rare earth resources. (4) Preferential attachment is the link motivation for rare earth trade countries to establish rare earth trade links. In the future, the United States and Belgium, Japan and Germany, and the Netherlands and Britain are likely to establish rare earth trade links. Countries such as Sweden may establish rare earth trade links with China.

Key words: rare earth, complex network, competition pattern, link prediction, potential trade link, link motivation, China