黄河流域碳排放脱钩效应及减排路径

doi:10.18402/resci.2022.01.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在中国提出黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略以及2030年碳排放达峰的背景下,本文采用2006—2019年黄河流域地级市面板数据,基于Tapio脱钩弹性指数及追赶脱钩模型考察黄河流域碳排放特征及脱钩状态。结果表明：①黄河流域碳排放总量与人均量增速放缓,两项指标的年均增速分别由2006—2010年期间的6.5%和5.4%下降至2011—2019年期间的1.6%和0.8%,碳强度大幅下降,年平均降速为5.1%;②黄河流域91.2%的城市实现了碳排放和经济增长的相对脱钩,但其总体脱钩程度仍低于珠三角、长三角、京津冀地区;③各城市追赶脱钩状态不同,大部分城市处于强负脱钩状态,即与标杆城市相比,经济发展水平差距在逐步扩大,但是碳强度差距逐步缩小。未呈现强负脱钩的城市主要集中在河南、宁夏与甘肃省。因此,为促进黄河流域低碳集约发展,实现经济增长与碳排放的绝对脱钩,应考虑在城市自身发展基础上,借鉴标杆城市和发达地区低碳发展经验,制定合理的人口、产业和节能减排政策。

关键词: 碳排放, Tapio指数, 追赶脱钩, 低碳发展, 黄河流域

Abstract:

In the context of ecological environment protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and the carbon emissions peak by 2030 in China, with the help of the Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficients and pursuing decoupling models, this study analysed the carbon emission characteristics and decoupling status of prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2019. The results are as follows: (1) During the sample period, both total and per capita carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin continued to rise and the average annual growth rate dropped from 6.5% and 5.4% to 1.6% and 0.8% respectively around 2010. The carbon intensity decreased markedly, which presented an average annual decline of 5.1%. (2) Generally, 91.2% of the cities in the Yellow River Basin have achieved weak decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth. The overall decoupling status is better than the national average but at a lower degree than the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. (3) The state of pursuing decoupling differs among the cities. Most cities are currently in a strong negative decoupling state, and the gap in economic development may be increasing as compared to the benchmark cities, but the carbon intensity gap is narrowing. Cities that do not present strong negative decoupling are mainly located in Henan Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and Gansu Province. Therefore, in order to promote the low-carbon development of the Yellow River Basin and further realize the strong decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions, cities in this area should consider drawing on the experience of the benchmark cities and developed regions, and reasonably formulate policies for population, industry, energy conservation, and emission reduction.

Key words: carbon emissions, Tapio index, pursuing decoupling, low-carbon development, Yellow River Basin

张华明, 元鹏飞, 朱治双. 黄河流域碳排放脱钩效应及减排路径[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(1): 59-69.

ZHANG Huaming, YUAN Pengfei, ZHU Zhishuang. Decoupling effects of carbon emissions and reduction path in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(1): 59-69.

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城市群	城市构成	碳排放占比/%	人均碳排放/（t/人）	碳强度/（t/万元）
山东半岛城市群	济南、东营、淄博、莱芜、菏泽、德州、滨州等城市	25.4	6.9	1.1
中原城市群	郑州、洛阳、开封、新乡、焦作、鹤壁、晋城等城市	19.9	7.4	1.5
关中平原城市群	西安、宝鸡、铜川、渭南、咸阳、运城、临汾、天水、平凉、庆阳等城市	15.2	6.5	2.0
晋中城市群	太原、阳泉、晋中、忻州、吕梁等城市	9.7	11.6	3.7
呼包鄂榆城市群	呼和浩特、包头、鄂尔多斯、榆林	16.0	24.8	2.8
宁夏沿黄城市群	银川、石嘴山、吴忠、中卫等城市	9.2	29.9	8.9
兰西城市群	兰州、西宁、定西、白银等城市	4.6	8.4	2.1

序号	脱钩值范围	表现形式	发展类型
1	T<0	绝对脱钩	低碳发展型
2	0≤T<0.8	相对脱钩	集约扩张型
3	0.8≤T<1.2	增长连结	低效扩张型
4	T≥1.2	扩张负脱钩	粗放扩张型

类型	2006—2010年	2011—2015年	2016—2019年	2006—2019年
衰退脱钩	安阳、鹤壁、新乡、濮阳、陇南、吴忠、固原	乌海	乌海、开封、焦作、渭南、榆林、白银、吴忠、固原、中卫	乌海、吴忠
弱负脱钩	巴彦淖尔、乌兰察布、焦作、三门峡、延安、天水、平凉、庆阳、定西	莱芜、天水、济宁、中卫	泰安、莱芜、呼和浩特、铜川、宝鸡、咸阳、延安、平凉、天水、庆阳、定西、陇南、银川	泰安、陇南、固原、中卫
强负脱钩	其他城市	其他城市	其他城市	其他城市

城市群	2006—2019年		2006—2010年		2011—2015年		2016—2019年
城市群	指数	分类	指数	分类	指数	分类	指数	分类
中原城市群	0.0088	弱负脱钩	-1.2014	强负脱钩	1.3501	衰退脱钩	-0.2613	强负脱钩
关中平原城市群	-0.1492	强负脱钩	-1.1162	强负脱钩	-0.6213	强负脱钩	-0.2334	强负脱钩
兰西城市群	-0.1070	强负脱钩	-2.8350	强负脱钩	0.6940	弱负脱钩	-0.3204	强负脱钩
晋中城市群	-0.0807	强负脱钩	-0.4718	强负脱钩	-1.5684	强负脱钩	-0.1492	强负脱钩
呼包鄂榆城市群	-0.0747	强负脱钩	-0.7027	强负脱钩	0.3362	弱负脱钩	-0.1455	弱负脱钩
宁夏沿黄城市群	0.0425	弱负脱钩	-0.4069	强负连结	0.8196	衰退连结	0.0923	弱负脱钩

区域	2006—2010年	2011—2015年	2016—2019年	2006—2019年
全国平均	0.6844	0.1917	0.2926	0.3407
黄河流域	0.5445	0.2152	0.2956	0.2722
京津冀	0.5973	0.0421	0.1524	0.2475
长三角	0.5786	0.0533	0.1431	0.2197
珠三角	0.4060	0.0430	0.1139	0.1322