资源科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 59-69.doi: 10.18402/resci.2022.01.05
收稿日期:
2021-03-18
修回日期:
2021-08-14
出版日期:
2022-01-25
发布日期:
2022-03-25
通讯作者:
元鹏飞,男,山西太原人,硕士生,研究方向为低碳经济与可持续发展。E-mail: pfyuan77@126.com作者简介:
张华明,男,山西霍州人,教授,研究方向为宏观经济分析与能源经济管理。E-mail: zhm5665@126.com
基金资助:
ZHANG Huaming(), YUAN Pengfei(
), ZHU Zhishuang
Received:
2021-03-18
Revised:
2021-08-14
Online:
2022-01-25
Published:
2022-03-25
摘要:
在中国提出黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略以及2030年碳排放达峰的背景下,本文采用2006—2019年黄河流域地级市面板数据,基于Tapio脱钩弹性指数及追赶脱钩模型考察黄河流域碳排放特征及脱钩状态。结果表明:①黄河流域碳排放总量与人均量增速放缓,两项指标的年均增速分别由2006—2010年期间的6.5%和5.4%下降至2011—2019年期间的1.6%和0.8%,碳强度大幅下降,年平均降速为5.1%;②黄河流域91.2%的城市实现了碳排放和经济增长的相对脱钩,但其总体脱钩程度仍低于珠三角、长三角、京津冀地区;③各城市追赶脱钩状态不同,大部分城市处于强负脱钩状态,即与标杆城市相比,经济发展水平差距在逐步扩大,但是碳强度差距逐步缩小。未呈现强负脱钩的城市主要集中在河南、宁夏与甘肃省。因此,为促进黄河流域低碳集约发展,实现经济增长与碳排放的绝对脱钩,应考虑在城市自身发展基础上,借鉴标杆城市和发达地区低碳发展经验,制定合理的人口、产业和节能减排政策。
张华明, 元鹏飞, 朱治双. 黄河流域碳排放脱钩效应及减排路径[J]. 资源科学, 2022, 44(1): 59-69.
ZHANG Huaming, YUAN Pengfei, ZHU Zhishuang. Decoupling effects of carbon emissions and reduction path in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Resources Science, 2022, 44(1): 59-69.
表1
黄河流域城市群碳排放基本概况
城市群 | 城市构成 | 碳排放占比/% | 人均碳排放/(t/人) | 碳强度/(t/万元) |
---|---|---|---|---|
山东半岛城市群 | 济南、东营、淄博、莱芜、菏泽、德州、滨州等城市 | 25.4 | 6.9 | 1.1 |
中原城市群 | 郑州、洛阳、开封、新乡、焦作、鹤壁、晋城等城市 | 19.9 | 7.4 | 1.5 |
关中平原城市群 | 西安、宝鸡、铜川、渭南、咸阳、运城、临汾、天水、平凉、庆阳等城市 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 2.0 |
晋中城市群 | 太原、阳泉、晋中、忻州、吕梁等城市 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 3.7 |
呼包鄂榆城市群 | 呼和浩特、包头、鄂尔多斯、榆林 | 16.0 | 24.8 | 2.8 |
宁夏沿黄城市群 | 银川、石嘴山、吴忠、中卫等城市 | 9.2 | 29.9 | 8.9 |
兰西城市群 | 兰州、西宁、定西、白银等城市 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 2.1 |
表5
2006—2019年各城市群碳强度与人均GDP追赶脱钩指数值及其分类
城市群 | 2006—2019年 | 2006—2010年 | 2011—2015年 | 2016—2019年 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
指数 | 分类 | 指数 | 分类 | 指数 | 分类 | 指数 | 分类 | ||||
中原城市群 | 0.0088 | 弱负脱钩 | -1.2014 | 强负脱钩 | 1.3501 | 衰退脱钩 | -0.2613 | 强负脱钩 | |||
关中平原城市群 | -0.1492 | 强负脱钩 | -1.1162 | 强负脱钩 | -0.6213 | 强负脱钩 | -0.2334 | 强负脱钩 | |||
兰西城市群 | -0.1070 | 强负脱钩 | -2.8350 | 强负脱钩 | 0.6940 | 弱负脱钩 | -0.3204 | 强负脱钩 | |||
晋中城市群 | -0.0807 | 强负脱钩 | -0.4718 | 强负脱钩 | -1.5684 | 强负脱钩 | -0.1492 | 强负脱钩 | |||
呼包鄂榆城市群 | -0.0747 | 强负脱钩 | -0.7027 | 强负脱钩 | 0.3362 | 弱负脱钩 | -0.1455 | 弱负脱钩 | |||
宁夏沿黄城市群 | 0.0425 | 弱负脱钩 | -0.4069 | 强负连结 | 0.8196 | 衰退连结 | 0.0923 | 弱负脱钩 |
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