资源科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 59-69.doi: 10.18402/resci.2022.01.05

• 资源管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

黄河流域碳排放脱钩效应及减排路径

张华明(), 元鹏飞(), 朱治双   

  1. 山西财经大学经济学院,太原 030006
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-18 修回日期:2021-08-14 出版日期:2022-01-25 发布日期:2022-03-25
  • 通讯作者: 元鹏飞,男,山西太原人,硕士生,研究方向为低碳经济与可持续发展。E-mail: pfyuan77@126.com
  • 作者简介:张华明,男,山西霍州人,教授,研究方向为宏观经济分析与能源经济管理。E-mail: zhm5665@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目(72103113);山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(2021YJ026);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJCZH143)

Decoupling effects of carbon emissions and reduction path in the Yellow River Basin

ZHANG Huaming(), YUAN Pengfei(), ZHU Zhishuang   

  1. School of Economics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
  • Received:2021-03-18 Revised:2021-08-14 Online:2022-01-25 Published:2022-03-25

摘要:

在中国提出黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略以及2030年碳排放达峰的背景下,本文采用2006—2019年黄河流域地级市面板数据,基于Tapio脱钩弹性指数及追赶脱钩模型考察黄河流域碳排放特征及脱钩状态。结果表明:①黄河流域碳排放总量与人均量增速放缓,两项指标的年均增速分别由2006—2010年期间的6.5%和5.4%下降至2011—2019年期间的1.6%和0.8%,碳强度大幅下降,年平均降速为5.1%;②黄河流域91.2%的城市实现了碳排放和经济增长的相对脱钩,但其总体脱钩程度仍低于珠三角、长三角、京津冀地区;③各城市追赶脱钩状态不同,大部分城市处于强负脱钩状态,即与标杆城市相比,经济发展水平差距在逐步扩大,但是碳强度差距逐步缩小。未呈现强负脱钩的城市主要集中在河南、宁夏与甘肃省。因此,为促进黄河流域低碳集约发展,实现经济增长与碳排放的绝对脱钩,应考虑在城市自身发展基础上,借鉴标杆城市和发达地区低碳发展经验,制定合理的人口、产业和节能减排政策。

关键词: 碳排放, Tapio指数, 追赶脱钩, 低碳发展, 黄河流域

Abstract:

In the context of ecological environment protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and the carbon emissions peak by 2030 in China, with the help of the Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficients and pursuing decoupling models, this study analysed the carbon emission characteristics and decoupling status of prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2019. The results are as follows: (1) During the sample period, both total and per capita carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin continued to rise and the average annual growth rate dropped from 6.5% and 5.4% to 1.6% and 0.8% respectively around 2010. The carbon intensity decreased markedly, which presented an average annual decline of 5.1%. (2) Generally, 91.2% of the cities in the Yellow River Basin have achieved weak decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth. The overall decoupling status is better than the national average but at a lower degree than the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. (3) The state of pursuing decoupling differs among the cities. Most cities are currently in a strong negative decoupling state, and the gap in economic development may be increasing as compared to the benchmark cities, but the carbon intensity gap is narrowing. Cities that do not present strong negative decoupling are mainly located in Henan Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and Gansu Province. Therefore, in order to promote the low-carbon development of the Yellow River Basin and further realize the strong decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions, cities in this area should consider drawing on the experience of the benchmark cities and developed regions, and reasonably formulate policies for population, industry, energy conservation, and emission reduction.

Key words: carbon emissions, Tapio index, pursuing decoupling, low-carbon development, Yellow River Basin