资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (12): 2526-2537.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.12.14

• 资源环境管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合机理及协调发展时空演变

徐辉1(), 王亿文1, 张宗艳2, 高一公1, 张大伟2()   

  1. 1.兰州大学经济学院,兰州 730000
    2.兰州大学生态学院,草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室,兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2020-12-21 修回日期:2021-03-23 出版日期:2021-12-25 发布日期:2022-02-16
  • 通讯作者: 张大伟,男,甘肃景泰人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为生态学及人与自然耦合。E-mail: zhdawei@lzu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:徐辉,女,甘肃兰州人,博士,教授,主要研究方向为生态经济与资源环境管理。E-mail: xhhui@lzu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41971127);国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD185)

Coupling mechanism of water-energy-food and spatiotemporal evolution of coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin

XU Hui1(), WANG Yiwen1, ZHANG Zongyan2, GAO Yigong1, ZHANG Dawei2()   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystem, College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2020-12-21 Revised:2021-03-23 Online:2021-12-25 Published:2022-02-16

摘要:

黄河流域面临的水、能源和粮食问题非常突出,研究黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展有助于推动黄河流域的生态保护和高质量发展。本文首先分析黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展机理,构建相应的耦合协调发展评价指标体系;在此基础上,运用耦合协调度模型测算了2008—2018年黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展状况,并分析其时间和空间演变特征;最后,利用灰色预测GM(1, 1)模型对其耦合协调发展状况进行模拟。结果表明:①2008—2018年黄河流域水-能源-粮食基本处于稳定的高水平耦合状态,2010年由初级协调转变为中级协调,2018年由中级协调转变为良好协调。②省区间的耦合协调发展水平差异较大,宁夏仅为勉强协调,河南、陕西和甘肃为初级协调,山西、内蒙古、山东和青海为中级协调。③2019—2023年除陕西外,其余各省区水-能源-粮食耦合协调度预计将呈缓慢上升的趋势。本文根据各省区的水-能源-粮食耦合协调特征提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 水-能源-粮食, 关联关系, 耦合, 协调发展, 时空演变, 灰色预测, 黄河流域

Abstract:

The issues of water, energy, and food in the Yellow River Basin are particularly prominent. Research on the coordinated development of water-energy-food (WEF) coupling is helpful for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the basin. This study first analyzed the mechanism of WEF coupling and coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin, then constructed the corresponding evaluation indicator system of coupling and coordinated development. Based on that, the coupling and coordination degree model was used to calculate the coupling and coordinated development status of WEF in the basin during 2008-2018 and analyze the characteristics of its temporal and spatial changes. Finally, the grey prediction GM (1, 1) model was used to simulate the coupling and coordinated development of the Yellow River Basin. The results show that: (1) Generally, the WEF systems of the Yellow River Basin were in a stable high-level coupling state in the study period, changing from primary coordination to intermediate coordination in 2010, and from intermediate coordination to good coordination in 2018. (2) The development level of coupling and coordination is quite different spatially. Ningxia is barely coordinated. Henan, Shaanxi, and Gansu Provinces are in the primary coordination category. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Qinghai are in the intermediate coordination category. (3) From 2019 to 2023, except for Shaanxi Province, other provinces and autonomous regions are expected to show a slow upward trend. This article also put forward corresponding policy recommendations according to the coupling and coordination characteristics of WEF in various provinces and autonomous regions of the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: water-energy-food, nexus, coupling, coordinated development, spatiotemporal evolution, grey prediction, Yellow River Basin