黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合机理及协调发展时空演变

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.12.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

黄河流域面临的水、能源和粮食问题非常突出,研究黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展有助于推动黄河流域的生态保护和高质量发展。本文首先分析黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展机理,构建相应的耦合协调发展评价指标体系;在此基础上,运用耦合协调度模型测算了2008—2018年黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展状况,并分析其时间和空间演变特征;最后,利用灰色预测GM（1, 1）模型对其耦合协调发展状况进行模拟。结果表明：①2008—2018年黄河流域水-能源-粮食基本处于稳定的高水平耦合状态,2010年由初级协调转变为中级协调,2018年由中级协调转变为良好协调。②省区间的耦合协调发展水平差异较大,宁夏仅为勉强协调,河南、陕西和甘肃为初级协调,山西、内蒙古、山东和青海为中级协调。③2019—2023年除陕西外,其余各省区水-能源-粮食耦合协调度预计将呈缓慢上升的趋势。本文根据各省区的水-能源-粮食耦合协调特征提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 水-能源-粮食, 关联关系, 耦合, 协调发展, 时空演变, 灰色预测, 黄河流域

Abstract:

The issues of water, energy, and food in the Yellow River Basin are particularly prominent. Research on the coordinated development of water-energy-food (WEF) coupling is helpful for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the basin. This study first analyzed the mechanism of WEF coupling and coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin, then constructed the corresponding evaluation indicator system of coupling and coordinated development. Based on that, the coupling and coordination degree model was used to calculate the coupling and coordinated development status of WEF in the basin during 2008-2018 and analyze the characteristics of its temporal and spatial changes. Finally, the grey prediction GM (1, 1) model was used to simulate the coupling and coordinated development of the Yellow River Basin. The results show that: (1) Generally, the WEF systems of the Yellow River Basin were in a stable high-level coupling state in the study period, changing from primary coordination to intermediate coordination in 2010, and from intermediate coordination to good coordination in 2018. (2) The development level of coupling and coordination is quite different spatially. Ningxia is barely coordinated. Henan, Shaanxi, and Gansu Provinces are in the primary coordination category. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Qinghai are in the intermediate coordination category. (3) From 2019 to 2023, except for Shaanxi Province, other provinces and autonomous regions are expected to show a slow upward trend. This article also put forward corresponding policy recommendations according to the coupling and coordination characteristics of WEF in various provinces and autonomous regions of the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: water-energy-food, nexus, coupling, coordinated development, spatiotemporal evolution, grey prediction, Yellow River Basin

徐辉, 王亿文, 张宗艳, 高一公, 张大伟. 黄河流域水-能源-粮食耦合机理及协调发展时空演变[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(12): 2526-2537.

XU Hui, WANG Yiwen, ZHANG Zongyan, GAO Yigong, ZHANG Dawei. Coupling mechanism of water-energy-food and spatiotemporal evolution of coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(12): 2526-2537.

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子系统	维度	评价指标	单位	属性
水资源	投入	人均水资源量	m³/人	正
	投入	人均降水总量	m³/人	正
	产出	人均用水量	m³/人	负
		单位GDP用水量	m³/万元	负
		生活用水占比	%	正
		工业生产用水占比	%	负
		人均废水排放总量	t/人	负
能源	投入	人均能源产量	t标准煤/人	正
		能源工业投资	亿元	正
		原煤占能源产量比重	%	正
		人均天然气供气总量	m³/人	正
	产出	人均能源消费量	t标准煤/人	负
		单位GDP能耗	t标准煤/万元	负
		煤炭消费占比	%	负
粮食	投入	有效灌溉面积占比	%	正
		粮食播种面积占比	%	正
		机械动力	kW/hm²	正
		单位面积化肥折纯使用量	t/hm²	负
	产出	人均粮食产量	kg/人	正
		粮食单产	t/hm²	正
		居民粮食消费价格指数	-	负
		人口自然增长率	‰	负
		农村居民人均可支配收入	元	正

耦合度（C）	阶段
(0, 0.3]	低水平耦合
(0.3, 0.5]	颉颃阶段
(0.5, 0.8]	磨合阶段
(0.8, 1.0)	高水平耦合
1	良性共振耦合

耦合协调度（D）	(0.00, 0.10)	[0.10, 0.20)	[0.20, 0.30)	[0.30, 0.40)	[0.40, 0.50)
协调发展类型	极度失调	严重失调	中度失调	轻度失调	濒临失调
耦合协调度（D）	[0.50, 0.60)	[0.60, 0.70)	[0.70, 0.80)	[0.80, 0.90)	[0.90, 1.00]
协调发展类型	勉强协调	初级协调	中级协调	良好协调	优质协调

年份	T_W	T_E	T_F	T	C	D	耦合阶段	耦合协调类型
2008	0.496	0.426	0.404	0.442	0.974	0.656	高水平耦合	初级协调
2009	0.582	0.481	0.435	0.500	0.975	0.696	高水平耦合	初级协调
2010	0.553	0.533	0.424	0.503	0.981	0.702	高水平耦合	中级协调
2011	0.548	0.522	0.485	0.518	0.990	0.714	高水平耦合	中级协调
2012	0.419	0.557	0.541	0.506	0.979	0.702	高水平耦合	中级协调
2013	0.431	0.572	0.490	0.498	0.986	0.700	高水平耦合	中级协调
2014	0.473	0.577	0.538	0.530	0.989	0.723	高水平耦合	中级协调
2015	0.407	0.587	0.600	0.531	0.975	0.719	高水平耦合	中级协调
2016	0.515	0.578	0.546	0.546	0.994	0.736	高水平耦合	中级协调
2017	0.614	0.568	0.657	0.613	0.993	0.779	高水平耦合	中级协调
2018	0.656	0.581	0.788	0.675	0.980	0.812	高水平耦合	良好协调

模拟年份	山西	内蒙古	山东	河南	陕西	甘肃	青海	宁夏
2019	0.779	0.722	0.849	0.850	0.682	0.816	0.773	0.865
2020	0.786	0.724	0.874	0.880	0.675	0.835	0.775	0.893
2021	0.793	0.725	0.900	0.911	0.668	0.854	0.777	0.922
2022	0.801	0.727	0.926	0.944	0.661	0.874	0.778	0.951
2023	0.808	0.728	0.954	0.977	0.654	0.894	0.800	0.982