环境政策、制度质量和可再生能源技术创新——基于32个国家的实证分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.12.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

可再生能源技术创新是促进能源转型和经济高质量发展的重要一环。已有研究多从国内经济因素探讨环境政策对可再生能源技术创新的影响,较少从制度层面以及开放的国际视域开展研究。本文利用1998—2016年32个国家的面板数据,运用多元回归分析方法,首先引入政策强度计量政策严格性,探索国内外环境政策对本国可再生能源技术创新的动态影响,其次选用制度质量作为制度环境优劣的度量指标,探讨制度因素对环境政策效果的调节作用。研究发现：①国内外环境政策对本国可再生能源技术创新均存在正向影响,但这种影响存在一定的时间滞后期;②国外环境政策对本国可再生能源技术创新的影响早于国内环境政策,国外环境政策的“政策溢出”效应存在;③制度质量正向调节国内环境政策对本国可再生能源技术创新的影响,制度质量的提高能够增强环境政策的创新激励效应。研究结论可为中国进一步优化环境政策体系、推动可再生能源发展提供科学依据。

关键词: 可再生能源, 技术创新, 环境政策, 政策溢出, 制度质量, 固定效应模型, 调节效应

Abstract:

Renewable energy technology innovation is an important part of promoting energy transformation and high-quality economic development. Most of the existing studies focus on domestic economic factors to explore the impact of environmental policies on renewable energy technology innovation, while limited attention has been paid to institutions and conducting research from an international perspective. Based on the panel data of 32 countries from 1998 to 2016, this study used multiple regression analysis method. Firstly, it introduced policy stringency to measure the strictness of policies, exploring the dynamic impacts of domestic and foreign environmental policies on renewable energy technology innovation. Secondly, it used institutional quality as the measurement index of institutional environment, discussing the moderating effect of institutional factors on the effect of environmental policies. The results show that: (1) Domestic and foreign environmental policies both have positive impacts on domestic renewable energy technology innovation, but these effects have a certain time lag; (2) The impact of foreign environmental policies on domestic renewable energy technology innovation is earlier than that of domestic environmental policies, which indicates the existence of “policy spillover” from foreign environmental policies; (3) Institutional quality has a positive moderating effect on the effect of domestic environmental policies. The improvement of institutional quality can enhance the innovation incentive effect of environmental policies. These conclusions provide a scientific basis for the state to further optimize the environmental policy system and promote the development of renewable energy.

Key words: renewable energy, technology innovation, environmental policy, policy spillover, institutional quality, fixed effects model, moderating effect

李凡, 朱缤绮, 孙颖. 环境政策、制度质量和可再生能源技术创新——基于32个国家的实证分析[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(12): 2514-2525.

LI Fan, ZHU Binqi, SUN Ying. Environmental policy, institutional quality and renewable energy technology innovation: An empirical analysis of 32 countries[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(12): 2514-2525.

图/表 5

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

模型回归结果

变量	滞后效应模型（模型1）			交互效应模型（模型2）
变量	滞后2期	滞后3期	滞后4期	交互效应模型（模型2）
EPS	0.523	0.458	0.241***	0.068**
	(0.090)	(0.089)	(2.193)	(1.460)
FEPS	0.914**	0.967**	0.816**	0.225*
	(0.426)	(0.394)	(0.461)	(1.190)
GOV	-0.150***	-0.294***	-0.605**	0.846**
	(-2.426)	(-2.425)	(-1.545)	(2.140)
EPS $×$ GOV				0.156***
				(4.761)
KS	0.268***	0.109***	0.097	0.159
	(0.255)	(0.371)	(0.064)	(0.046)
HTE	0.164*	0.041**	0.031*	0.145
	(1.292)	(2.340)	(1.374)	(0.092)
FFC	-3.389**	-3.849**	-4.035**	-2.864
	(-1.841)	(-2.149)	(-2.073)	(-0.083)
EPR	-0.675***	-0.678***	0.651	0.354*
	(-3.161)	(-3.184)	(0.091)	(1.168)
R&D	-0.321	0.548	0.624	0.441*
	(-0.076)	(0.078)	(0.065)	(0.613)
IEAs	0.084	-0.286	0.335	-0.240
	(0.210)	(-0.269)	(0.234)	(-0.315)
R²	0.243	0.555	0.541	0.613
F统计量	2.135	1.859	1.960	1.243

表5

参考文献 41

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概念测量	变量符号	指标度量/单位	数据来源
因变量
可再生能源技术创新	INNO	可再生能源专利申请数占居民专利申请总数的百分比/%	IRENA数据库
自变量
国内环境政策	EPS	国内环境政策强度指标	OECD数据库
国外环境政策	FEPS	国外环境政策强度指标的加权平均数（以国家间首都地理距离为加权系数）	OECD、CEPII数据库
调节变量
制度质量	GOV	政府有效性指数	世界银行数据库
控制变量
知识存量	KS	考虑衰减率的可再生能源专利累积申请数	IRENA数据库
高技术出口	HTE	高技术产品出口额占制成品出口额的百分比/%	世界银行数据库
化石燃料消耗	FFC	化石燃料消耗量占全部能源消耗量的百分比/%	世界银行数据库
可再生能源发电	EPR	可再生能源发电量（不包括大型水电）占全部能源发电量的百分比/%	国际能源署数据库
研发支出	R&D	公共部门研发支出占GDP的百分比/%	世界银行数据库
国际环境协议	IEAs	某年7月前是否签署《京都议定书》	国际气候公约网站

变量	样本数	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
INNO	608	0.003	0.024	0.000	0.008
EPS	608	1.994	0.921	0.380	4.130
FEPS	608	1.431	1.740	0.214	3.556
GOV	608	1.156	0.724	-0.733	2.352
KS	608	2.015	1.171	0.096	3.277
HTE	608	0.155	0.089	0.014	0.478
FFC	608	0.663	0.107	0.365	0.827
EPR	608	0.230	0.245	0.010	0.961
R&D	608	0.017	0.008	0.004	0.048
IEAs	608	0.700	0.462	0.000	1.000

变量	ADF-p值	检验形式（C, T, L）	结论
INNO	0.043	（C, 0, 1）	平稳
EPS	0.000	(0, 0, 1)	平稳
FEPS	0.000	（0, 0, 1）	平稳
GOV	0.022	（C, 0, 1）	平稳
KS	0.000	（C, T, 1）	平稳
HTE	0.000	（C, T, 1）	平稳
FFC	0.000	（C, T, 1）	平稳
EPR	0.006	（C, T, 1）	平稳
R&D	0.013	（C, T, 1）	平稳
IEAs	0.031	（0, 0, 1）	平稳