“一带一路”倡议实施对中国沿线城市绿色转型的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.12.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“一带一路”倡议为中国经济高质量发展提供了重要机遇,是新时代背景下实现绿色转型的重要推力。本文以“一带一路”倡议实施这一准自然实验为切入点,以城市绿色全要素生产率衡量绿色转型水平,运用双重差分法考察“一带一路”倡议实施对2004—2017年中国沿线城市绿色转型的影响及作用机制。研究发现：①“一带一路”倡议的实施显著推动了沿线城市的绿色转型,但存在城市类型和地理区位异质性,“一带一路”倡议对沿线城市绿色转型的推动作用主要存在于中心城市、非资源型城市、特大城市、中部地区城市和（0,200]地理圈层内城市。②在“一带一路”倡议实施过程中,科技创新效应尚未显著促进沿线城市绿色转型,但结构优化效应和资源整合效应发挥了积极作用。③结构优化效应和资源整合效应的发挥均存在门槛现象,当城市第三产业比重、大学生人口数量和外商直接投资额超过临界值时,结构优化效应和资源整合效应才能发挥推动城市绿色转型的正向作用。根据以上结论,在“一带一路”倡议建设过程中,建议政府继续完善相关配套政策,推动沿线城市进一步融入“一带一路”倡议;加强技术创新,激发科技创新效应对城市绿色转型的驱动作用;提高城市综合竞争力,实现对政策红利的高效利用。

关键词: “一带一路”倡议, 城市绿色转型, 绿色全要素生产率, 双重差分, 调节效应, 准自然实验, 中国

Abstract:

The Belt and Road initiative provides an important opportunity for China to achieve high-quality development and it is an important driving force to achieve green transformation under the background of the new economic normal. This study took the Belt and Road initiative as a quasi-natural experiment, and used the difference-in-differences (DID) analysisto examine the impact of the Belt and Road initiative on the green transformation of Chinese cities along the route in 2004-2017 and the mechanism of impact. The study found that the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative significantly promoted the level of urban green transformation and development characterized by green total factor productivity, and there were heterogeneities in the level of urban green transformation between different city types and geographic locations. The initiative significantly promoted the green transformation in central cities, non-resource-based cities, megacities, cities located in middle area, and cities less than 200 km away from the central cities. Further analysis revealed that structural driving force and factor driving force played positive roles in the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative, but the effect of innovation driving force was insufficient. There is a threshold characteristic in the exertion of structural driving force and factor driving force, that is, they can promote urban green transformation when the proportion of urban tertiary industry, the number of college students and the amount of foreign direct investment exceed the critical value. Based on aforementioned findings, the government should continue to establish relevant supporting policies and promote the cities along the route to further integrate into the initiative; Cities should strengthen technological innovation, so as to stimulate the positive effect of innovation driving force on urban green transformation; The government should constantly improve urban comprehensive competitiveness, thus realizing the efficient utilization of policy dividends of Belt and Road initiative.

Key words: Belt and Road initiative, urban green transformation, green total factor productivity, difference-in-differences, moderation effect, quasi- natural experiment, China

汪克亮, 庞素勤. “一带一路”倡议实施对中国沿线城市绿色转型的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(12): 2475-2489.

WANG Keliang, PANG Suqin. The influence of Belt and Road initiative on green transformation of cities along the route in China[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(12): 2475-2489.

图/表 13

图1

表1

表2

“一带一路”倡议对沿线城市绿色转型的基准回归结果

变量	被解释变量：GTD
变量	控制 $ε i$	控制 $μ t$	控制 $ε i$ 和 $μ t$
did	0.0064	0.0434**	0.0476**
did	(0.0182)	(0.0172)	(0.0187)
常数项	-1.8498***	-0.7388***	-4.2337***
常数项	(0.2680)	(0.2132)	(1.5000)
控制变量	是	是	是
城市固定效应	是	否	是
年度固定效应	否	是	是
样本数	3976	3976	3976
R²	0.1196	0.1860	0.2082

表2

表3

图2

图3

表4

表5

表6

表7

调节效应检验结果

变量	结构优化效应		科技创新效应		资源整合效应
变量	structure		innovation		human resource	FDI
did	-1.0948***		0.0287		-0.1989***	-0.3683***
did	(0.339)		(0.0182)		(0.0735)	(0.129)
mod	0.0964		0.0083		0.0041	-0.0242
mod	(0.0612)		(0.0058)			(0.023)	(0.0225)
mod $×$ id	0.3047***		0.0114		0.0232***	0.0351***
mod $×$ id	(0.0923)		(0.0087)			(0.0068)	(0.0109)
常数项	-4.1561***		-1.9792		-3.6310**	-3.4083***
常数项	(1.5126)		(2.1447)			(1.4874)	(1.1979)
控制变量	是		是		是	是
城市固定效应	是		是		是	是
年度固定效应	是	是	是	是
样本数	3974	3690	3974	3974
R²	0.2108	0.0889	0.2083	0.2122

表7

图4

表8

表9

动态效应检验结果

变量	GTD	LEC	LTC
2011 $×$ treat	-0.02	0.0436***	-0.0636***
2011 $×$ treat	(0.0304)	(0.0162)	(0.0255)
2012 $×$ treat	-0.0054	0.0051	-0.0105
2012 $×$ treat	(0.0184)	(0.0112)	(0.0127)
2013 $×$ treat	-0.0291	-0.0021	-0.027
2013 $×$ treat	(0.0237)	(0.012)	(0.0214)
2014 $×$ treat	0.0105	0.0067	0.0038
2014 $×$ treat	(0.0187)	(0.0121)	(0.0128)
2015 $×$ treat	0.0397**	0.0339***	0.0058
2015 $×$ treat	(0.019)	(0.0123)	(0.0139)
2016 $×$ treat	0.0859***	0.0284**	0.0575**
2016 $×$ treat	(0.0317)	(0.012)	(0.0287)
2017 $×$ treat	0.0335	0.0416*	-0.0081
2017 $×$ treat	(0.0543)	(0.0242)	(0.0448)
常数项	-4.2589***	-1.5105***	-2.7483*
常数项	(1.5149)	(0.2242)	(1.4760)
控制变量	是	是	是
城市固定效应	是	是	是
年度固定效应	是	是	是
样本数	3976	3976	3976
R²	0.2087	0.157	0.1993

表9

参考文献 37

[1]	刘钻扩, 辛丽. “一带一路”建设对沿线中国重点省域绿色全要素生产率的影响[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2018, 28(12):87-97.
	[ Liu Z K, Xin L. The impact of the “Belt and Road” construction on green total factor productivity in China’s key provinces along the route[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2018, 28(12):87-97.]
[2]	余东升, 余娟娟. “一带一路”建设对中国城市环境全要素生产率的影响[J]. 软科学, 2020, 34(5):27-34.
	[ Yu D S, Yu J J. The impact of the “Belt and Road” construction on the environmental total factor productivity of Chinese cities[J]. Soft Science, 2020, 34(5):27-34.]
[3]	孙焱林, 覃飞. “一带一路”倡议降低了企业对外直接投资风险吗?[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2018, (8):66-79.
	[ Sun Y L, Qin F. Does “Belt and Road” initiative reduce firm-level foreign direct investment risk?[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2018, (8):66-79.]
[4]	Du J L, Zhang Y F. Does One Belt One Road initiative promote Chinese overseas direct investment?[J]. China Economic Review, 2018, 47(2):189-205. doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.05.010
[5]	刘磊, 刘晓宁, 张猛. 中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资与产能过剩治理: 基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究[J]. 经济问题探索, 2018, (5):167-177.
	[ Liu L, Liu X N, Zhang M. China’s outward foreign direct investment to “Belt and Road” countries and the harnessing of excessive production capacity: An empirical study from provincial panel data of China[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2018, (5):167-177.]
[6]	刘赢时, 田银华, 罗迎. 产业结构升级、能源效率与绿色全要素生产率[J]. 财经理论与实践, 2018, 39(1):118-126.
	[ Liu Y S, Tian Y H, Luo Y. Upgrading of industrial structure, energy efficiency, green total factor productivity[J]. The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics, 2018, 39(1):118-126.]
[7]	卫玲, 梁炜. 以创新驱动推进“一带一路”产业升级[J]. 江苏社会科学, 2017, (5):32-40.
	[ Wei L, Liang W. Promoting industrial upgrading of “One Belt and One Road” by innovation[J]. Jiangsu Social Sciences, 2017, (5):32-40.]
[8]	王恕立, 吴楚豪. “一带一路”倡议下中国的国际分工地位: 基于价值链视角的投入产出分析[J]. 财经研究, 2018, 44(8):18-30.
	[ Wang S L, Wu C H. China’s international division status of labor under the initiative of the “One Belt and One Road”: An input-output analysis based on the view of value chain[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2018, 44(8):18-30.]
[9]	Haggai K. One Belt One Road strategy in China and economic development in the concerning countries[J]. Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2016, 2(1):10-14.
[10]	毛海欧, 刘海云. 中国对外直接投资对贸易互补关系的影响: “一带一路”倡议扮演了什么角色[J]. 财贸经济, 2019, 40(10):81-94.
	[ Mao H O, Liu H Y. The impact of China’s OFDI on bilateral trade complementarity: The role of the Belt and Road initiative[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2019, 40(10):81-94.]
[11]	Ernst D. Upgrading through innovation in a small network economy: Insights from Taiwan’s IT industry[J]. Economics of Innovation & New Technology, 2010, 19(4):295-324.
[12]	Lee C H, Zhao J L, Hassna G. Government-incentivized crowdfunding for One-belt, One-road enterprises: Design and research issues[J]. Financial Innovation, 2016, 2(1):26-26. doi: 10.1186/s40854-016-0040-y
[13]	王桂军, 卢潇潇. “一带一路”倡议可以促进中国企业创新吗?[J]. 财经研究, 2019, 45(1):19-34.
	[ Wang G J, Lu X X. Can the Belt and Road initiative promote China’s corporate innovation?[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2019, 45(1):19-34.]
[14]	佟家栋, 谢丹阳, 包群, 等. “逆全球化”与实体经济转型升级笔谈[J]. 中国工业经济, 2017, (6):5-59.
	[ Tong J D, Xie D Y, Bao Q, et al. The talks on paper of the deglobalization and transformation and upgrading of real economy[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2017, (6):5-59.]
[15]	马骥, 马相东. “一带一路”建设与中国产业结构升级: 基于出口贸易的视角[J]. 亚太经济, 2017, (5):31-37.
	[ Ma J, Ma X D. “One Belt and One Road” construction and upgrading of China’s industrial structure: Based on the perspective of export trade[J]. Asia-pacific Economic Review, 2017, (5):31-37.]
[16]	孟望生, 张扬. 自然资源禀赋、技术进步方式与绿色经济增长: 基于中国省级面板数据的经验研究[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(12):2314-2327.
	[ Meng W S, Zhang Y. Natural resource endowment, path selection of technological progress, and green economic growth: An empirical research based on China’s provincial panel data[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(12):2314-2327.]
[17]	白俊红, 刘宇英. 对外直接投资能否改善中国的资源错配[J]. 中国工业经济, 2018, (1):60-78.
	[ Bai J H, Liu Y Y. Can outward foreign direct investment improve the resource misallocation of China?[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2018, (1):60-78.]
[18]	张幼文, 薛安伟. 要素流动对世界经济增长的影响机理[J]. 世界经济研究, 2013, (2):3-8.
	[ Zhang Y W, Xue A W. Factor mobility and its impact on world economic growth[J]. World Economy Studies, 2013, (2):3-8.]
[19]	郭爱君, 朱瑜珂, 钟方雷. “一带一路”倡议对我国沿线地区开放型经济发展水平的影响效应评估: 基于“准自然实验”分析[J]. 经济问题探索, 2019, (9):59-71.
	[ Guo A J, Zhu K Y, Zhong F L. The impact of the Belt and Road initiative on the level of open economic development in the areas along the Belt and Road in China: Based on quasi-natural experiment analysis[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2019, (9):59-71.]
[20]	张辉, 闫强明, 唐毓璇. “一带一路”相关国家产业结构高度及合作路径研究[J]. 学习与探索, 2019, (1):75-83.
	[ Zhang H, Yan Q M, Tang Y X. The industrial structure height and cooperation path under the Belt and Road initiative[J]. Study & Exploration, 2019, (1):75-83.]
[21]	廖红伟, 杨良平. “一带一路”沿线国家OFDI、产业结构升级与经济增长: 互动机理与中国表现[J]. 社会科学研究, 2018, (5):29-37.
	[ Liao H W, Yang L P. OFDI, industrial structure upgrading and economic growth of “Belt and Road” countries: Interaction mechanism and China’s performance[J]. Social Science Research, 2018, (5):29-37.]
[22]	于立宏, 王艳, 陈家宜. 考虑环境和代际负外部性的中国采矿业绿色全要素生产率[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(12):2155-2171.
	[ Yu L H, Wang Y, Chen J Y. Green total factor productivity of Chinese mining industries considering negative intergenerational and environmental externalities[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(12):2155-2171.]
[23]	胡博伟, 周亮, 王中辉, 等. 干旱区资源型城市绿色经济效率时空分异特征[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(2):383-393.
	[ Hu B W, Zhou L, Wang Z H, et al. Spatiotemporal differentiation of green economic efficiency of resource-based cities in arid area[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(2):383-393.]
[24]	王兵, 吴延瑞, 颜鹏飞. 中国区域环境效率与环境全要素生产率增长[J]. 经济研究, 2010, 45(5):95-109.
	[ Wang B, Wu Y R, Yan P F. Environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity growth in China’s regional economies[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2010, 45(5):95-109.]
[25]	Miao Z, Chen X D, Baležentis T, et al. Atmospheric environmental productivity across the provinces of China: Joint decomposition of range adjusted measure and Luenberger productivity indicator[J]. Energy Policy, 2019, 132:665-677. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.019
[26]	宋美喆, 刘寒波, 叶琛. 财政分权对全要素生产率的影响: 基于“省直管县”改革的准自然实验[J]. 经济地理, 2020, 40(3):33-42.
	[ Song M Z, Liu H B, Ye C. The influence of fiscal decentralization on the total factor productivity: Empirical evidence from a quasi-natural experiment of Province-Managing-County reform[J]. Economic Geography, 2020, 40(3):33-42.]
[27]	刘嘉毅, 陈玉萍, 夏鑫. 中国空气污染对入境旅游发展的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(7):1473-1482.
	[ Liu J Y, Chen Y P, Xia X. Research on the effect of air pollution on the development of inbound tourism in China[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(7):1473-1482.]
[28]	于建玲, 佟孟华, 朱泽君. 企业金融化对财务风险的影响: 基于经济政策不确定性的调节效应研究[J]. 国际金融研究, 2021, (10):88-96.
	[ Yu J L, Tong M H, Zhu Z J. The impact of corporate financialization on financial risks: A study based on the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty[J]. Studies of International Finance, 2021, (10):88-96.]
[29]	寇宗来, 刘学悦. 中国城市和产业创新力报告(2017)[R]. 上海: 复旦大学产业发展研究中心, 2017.
	[ Kou Z L, Liu X Y. Find Report on City and Industrial Innovation in China (2017)[R]. Shanghai: Fudan Institute of Industrial Development, 2017.]
[30]	刘常青, 李磊, 卫平. 中国地级及以上城市资本存量测度[J]. 城市问题, 2017, (10):67-72.
	[ Liu C Q, Li L, Wei P. Measuring on China’s urban capital stock at prefecture-level and higher level[J]. Urban Problems, 2017, (10):67-72.]
[31]	Tanaka S. Environmental regulations on air pollution in China and their impact on infant mortality[J]. Journal of Health Economics, 2015, 42(7):90-103. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2015.02.004
[32]	逯进, 王恩泽. 新能源示范城市建设对区域环境污染治理的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(11):2107-2118.
	[ Lu J, Wang E Z. Impact of new energy demonstration city construction on regional environmental pollution control[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(11):2107-2118.]
[33]	傅佳莎, 浦正宁, 蔡轩. 资源型城市转型政策实施效果评价: 基于PSM-DID方法[J]. 环境经济研究, 2019, 4(1):108-122.
	[ Fu J S, Pu Z N, Cai X. Evaluation on the implementation effect of resource-based cities’ transformation policy: Based on a PSM-DID method[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics, 2019, 4(1):108-122.]
[34]	丁焕峰, 孙小哲, 王露. 创新型城市试点改善了城市环境吗?[J]. 产业经济研究, 2021, (2):101-113.
	[ Ding H F, Sun X Z, Wang L. Has the innovative cities pilot project improved the urban environment?[J]. Industrial Economics Research, 2021, (2):101-113.]
[35]	姜安印, 杨志良. 新型城镇化建设与城市经济高质量增长: 基于双重差分法的实证分析[J]. 经济问题探索, 2020, (3):84-99.
	[ Jiang A Y, Yang Z L. New urbanization construction and high-quality urban economic growth: An empirical analysis based on the Double Difference method[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2020, (3):84-99.]
[36]	龙玉, 赵海龙, 张新德, 等. 时空压缩下的风险投资: 高铁通车与风险投资区域变化[J]. 经济研究, 2017, 52(4):195-208.
	[ Long Y, Zhao H L, Zhang X D, et al. High-speed railway and venture capital investment[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2017, 52(4):195-208.]
[37]	Alfaro L, Chanda A, Kalemli-Ozcan S, et al. FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2004, 64(1):89-112. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1996(03)00081-3

变量	名称	样本数	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	单位
被解释变量	绿色转型水平（GTD）	3976	-0.01	0.42	-4.98	18.97	-
	技术效率变化（LEC）	3976	0.01	0.13	-0.79	0.77	-
	技术进步（LTC）	3976	-0.01	0.39	-4.36	18.73	-
控制变量	城市经济发展水平（economy）	3976	1440.00	1900.00	9.46	21600.00	亿元
	发展潜力（growth）	3976	11.88	4.67	-15.30	109.00	%
	城市产业结构（structure）	3976	37.35	9.04	8.58	85.34	%
	技术发展水平（technology）	3976	4.01	11.90	0.01	403.52	亿元
	政府干预（government）	3976	0.49	0.23	0.03	1.54	-
	基础设施建设（infrastructure）	3976	10.81	7.93	0.31	108.37	m²
	城市化水平（urbanization）	3976	8.55	9.73	0.02	97.18	%
	城市规模（size）	3976	31.27	63.65	0.81	812.86	万人
调节变量	城市创新指数（innovation）	3692	7.63	41.19	0.01	1061.37	-
	城市人力资本（human resource）	3976	7.75	14.41	0.02	106.70	万人
	外商直接投资额（FDI）	3976	46.36	115.29	0.01	2050.00	亿元

解释变量	被解释变量：treat
解释变量	2004年	2008年	2012年	2013年
GTD	1.2922	0.8577	0.2678	-0.2188
GTD	(0.8167)	(0.9483)	(0.7628)	(0.7690)
控制变量	是	是	是	是
样本数	284	284	284	284
R²	0.0833	0.1426	0.1079	0.1176

变量	安慰剂检验		替换被解释变量	PSM-DID
变量	提前2年	提前3年	替换被解释变量	核匹配	半径匹配
did	0.0235	0.0145	0.0226***	0.0445**	0.0444**
did	(0.0147)	(0.0165)	(0.0083)	(0.0185)	(0.0185)
常数项	-4.1897***	-4.1767***	-1.4731***	-4.3652***	-4.2250***
常数项	(1.4936)	(1.4939)	(0.217)	(1.5312)	(1.4968)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
城市固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
年度固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
样本数	3976	3976	3976	3954	3967
R²	0.2078	0.2077	0.4517	0.2084	0.2075

变量	城市层级			资源禀赋			城市规模
变量	中心城市	非中心城市		资源型城市	非资源型城市		特大城市	非特大城市
did	0.0587**	0.0166		-0.0287	0.0927***		0.1085***	0.0146
did	(0.0271)	(0.0223)		(0.0266)	(0.0235)		(0.0243)	(0.0253)
常数项	-1.5771	-5.9381**		-6.124	-3.1113***		-3.6878***	-4.6567**
常数项	(0.9884)	(2.8545)		(3.6989)			(0.7482)	(0.5906)	(2.0537)
控制变量	是	是		是	是		是	是
城市固定效应	是	是		是	是		是	是
年度固定效应	是	是		是	是		是	是
样本数	1357	2617		1609	2365		1358	2616
R²	0.2762	0.2277	0.1516	0.3966	0.6128	0.1516

变量	宏观区位				微观区位
变量	东部地区	中部地区	西部地区		（0,200]	（200,+∞）
did	0.0376	0.0723**	0.0336		0.0686***	0.005
did	(0.0336)	(0.0279)	(0.0513)		(0.0225)	(0.0422)
常数项	-2.2616**	-2.4844***	-9.5760*		-2.8906***	-8.3176
常数项	(1.0711)	(0.4718)	(5.5105)		(0.6075)		(5.4469)
控制变量	是	是	是		是	是
城市固定效应	是	是	是		是	是
年度固定效应	是	是	是		是	是
样本数	1413	1399	1162		2574	1400
R²	0.3332	0.6074	0.143	0.4146	0.1648