资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (11): 2331-2341.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.11.15

• 碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

经济平稳增长下黄河流域相关省区碳达峰时间及峰值水平

王良栋1(), 吴乐英1(), 陈玉龙1, 马晓哲2,3, 杜梦娜1   

  1. 1.河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明省部共建协同创新中心,开封 475001
    2.河南大学地理与环境学院,开封 475004
    3.河南大学黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室,开封 475004
  • 收稿日期:2021-02-23 修回日期:2021-04-06 出版日期:2021-11-25 发布日期:2022-01-27
  • 通讯作者: 吴乐英,女,河南长葛人,讲师,硕士生导师,研究方向为区域可持续发展与政策模拟。E-mail: wuleying614@126.com
  • 作者简介:王良栋,男,河南南阳人,硕士研究生,研究方向为区域可持续发展与政策模拟。E-mail: lwd2019@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41901239);国家自然科学基金项目(41701632);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJC790017);河南省软科学研究计划项目(192400410085)

Carbon peak time and peak level of relevant provinces in the Yellow River Basin under stable economic growth

WANG Liangdong1(), WU Leying1(), CHEN Yulong1, MA Xiaozhe2,3, DU Mengna1   

  1. 1. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province and Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
    2. College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
  • Received:2021-02-23 Revised:2021-04-06 Online:2021-11-25 Published:2022-01-27

摘要:

黄河流域作为中国重要的生态安全屏障,研究黄河流域相关省区碳达峰具有重要的现实意义。本文运用经济平稳增长模型测算2020—2050年黄河流域相关省区的经济最优增长率,模拟分析不同情景下各省区碳达峰的时间和水平,并探讨减排情景对区域碳排放公平性的影响。结果表明:①减排情景有利于实现黄河流域相关省区碳排放与经济发展的脱钩,进而促进实现碳达峰;②基准情景和自主减排情景下黄河流域相关省区未能实现2030碳达峰目标;提前达峰情景碳减排量最大;③减排情景能够提高黄河流域相关省区碳排放的公平性,且提前达峰情景的效果最佳,但碳排放的区域间不公平性问题仍然存在。为了尽早实现黄河流域相关省区碳达峰,应进一步强化政策导向,充分考虑区域差异,加强省区间合作,制定更加适宜的减排政策。

关键词: 最优经济增长率, 碳排放强度, 碳峰值, 碳排放基尼系数, 黄河流域

Abstract:

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological security barrier in China, and it is of great practical significance to examine the carbon peak of the region. This study adopted the optimal economic growth model to calculate the optimal economic growth rate of relevant provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2020 to 2050, simulated and analyzed the carbon peak of each province under different emission scenarios, and explored the impact of emission reduction scenarios on the equality of carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) Emission reduction scenarios are conducive to the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic development in relevant provinces of the Yellow River Basin, thereby promoting the achievement of carbon peak; (2) Under the baseline scenario and the intended nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the relevant provinces of the Yellow River Basin cannot achieve the target of carbon emissions by 2030; Early peaking emissions scenario has the largest emission reduction; (3) Emission reduction scenarios can improve the equality of carbon emissions in relevant provinces of the Yellow River Basin., and the effect of the early peaking emissions scenario is more significant. However, the problem of regional inequality of carbon emissions still exists. In order to achieve the carbon peak in the Yellow River Basin as soon as possible, the government should further reinforce its policy orientation, fully consider regional differences, strengthen inter-provincial cooperation, and formulate more appropriate emission reduction policies.

Key words: optimal economic growth rate, carbon emission intensity, carbon emission peak, Gini coefficient of carbon emissions, Yellow River Basin