基于开放式水资源嵌入型CGE模型的税改政策经济影响与节水效应

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.11.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水资源费改税是中国政府为促进水资源有效节约和可持续利用而实施的重要价格改革措施,政策实施的节水效应和经济影响是决定税改工作能否全国推广的重要依据之一。本文以首个水资源税改试点——河北省为例,在对标准社会核算矩阵（SAM表）进行拓展的同时,构建了开放式水资源嵌入型一般均衡模型（CGE）,并设置了3种情景来模拟实施的水资源税改政策对河北省的经济运行状况的影响。结果表明：①征收水资源税在短期内会对宏观经济产生一定的负面影响,但从长期的角度来看,实施水资源税政策可以有效促进水资源的节约保护,提高企业对水资源的使用效率,有利于生态文明建设和经济社会环境的可持续发展;②不同行业对水资源的依赖程度存在差异,因此差异化的水资源税改政策能更有效地达成节水目标,实现更理想的政策效果;③对水资源税进行转移支付可以发挥税收的调节作用,有效减轻征税所造成的福利损失,在实现理想的节水效果的同时减少对经济和社会的负面影响。最后提出各省在实施水资源税改政策时要从政策制定、政策执行和税收使用3个方面统筹协调的政策建议。

关键词: 水资源税, 节水效应, 经济影响, 社会核算矩阵, 开放式水资源嵌入型CGE模型, 政策模拟, 河北省

Abstract:

Water resources tax reform is an important price reform measure implemented by the Chinese government to promote the effective conservation and sustainable utilization of water resources. The water- saving effect and economic impact of policy implementation are one of the important bases for determining whether the tax reform can be promoted nationwide. Taking Hebei Province the first pilot province of water resources tax reform as an example, this study constructed an open water resources embedded computable general equilibrium model (CGE) while expanding the standard social accounting matrix (SAM table), and three scenarios were set up to simulate the economic impact of the implementation of the water resources tax reform policy on Hebei Province. The results show that: (1) Levying water resources tax will have a certain negative impact on the macro economy in the short term, but from a long-term perspective, the implementation of water resources tax policy can effectively promote the conservation and protection of water resources, improve the efficiency of enterprises in the use of water resources, and is conducive to the construction of ecological civilization and the sustainable development of economic and social environments; (2) Different industries have different dependencies on water resources, so the differentiated water resources tax reform policy can more effectively achieve the goal of water saving and achieve better policy results; (3) The transfer payment of water resources tax can play the role of tax regulation, effectively reduce the welfare loss caused by taxation, and reduce the negative impact on economy and society while achieving the ideal water saving effect. Finally, the article puts forward the policy recommendation that the provinces of China should coordinate policy making, policy implementation, and tax use in the process of water resources tax reform.

Key words: water resources tax, water saving effect, economic impact, social accounting matrix, open water resource embedded CGE model, policy simulation, Hebei Province

吴正, 田贵良, 胡雨灿. 基于开放式水资源嵌入型CGE模型的税改政策经济影响与节水效应[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(11): 2264-2276.

WU Zheng, TIAN Guiliang, HU Yucan. Economic impact and water saving effect of tax reform policy based on open water resources embedded CGE model[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(11): 2264-2276.

图/表 8

图1

图2

表1

表2

省域水资源CGE模型主要函数的弹性参数值设定

部门	$δ a$	$δ a va$	$δ a kw$	$δ q$	$δ t$
农业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	5
一般耗水工业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	4
高耗水工业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	4
建筑业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	4
水的生产与供应业	0.3	0.8	0.6	3	4
一般耗水服务业	0.3	0.8	0.6	2	4
高耗水服务业	0.3	0.8	0.6	2	4

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

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情景	情景设计
基准情景（S0）	不征收水资源税
情景一（S1）	所有部门征收20%的水资源税率
情景二（S2）	高耗水行业征收25%的水资源税率,其他行业征收20%的税率
情景三（S3）	同情景二实行差别税率,并将税收转移支付给居民和企业

变量	情景一（S1）	情景二（S2）	情景三（S3）
GDP	-0.021	-0.023	-0.022
政府收入	0.245	0.247	-0.229
居民收入	-0.023	-0.026	-0.019
企业收入	-0.912	-0.913	-0.899
进口	-0.027	-0.029	-0.028
出口	-0.048	-0.053	-0.051

行业	情景一（S1）	情景二（S2）	情景三（S3）
农业	-0.87	-0.85	-0.86
一般耗水工业	-0.82	-0.79	-0.80
高耗水工业	-1.07	-1.14	-1.07
水的生产和供应业	-0.90	-0.89	-0.89
建筑业	-1.08	-1.08	-1.08
一般耗水服务业	-0.88	-0.86	-0.87
高耗水服务业	-1.10	-1.29	-1.21

行业	情景一（S1）	情景二（S2）	情景三（S3）
农业	-0.026	-0.029	-0.028
一般耗水工业	-0.022	-0.025	-0.024
高耗水工业	-0.031	-0.034	-0.033
水的生产和供应业	-0.013	-0.015	-0.014
建筑业	-0.006	-0.007	-0.006
一般耗水服务业	-0.016	-0.018	-0.017
高耗水服务业	-0.020	-0.023	-0.022