资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10): 2119-2129.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.15

• 碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国试点碳市场有效性的决定因素

吴伟光1,2,3(), 祝雅璐1, 顾光同1,2,3()   

  1. 1.浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州 311300
    2.浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,杭州 311300
    3.浙江农林大学生态文明与碳中和研究院,杭州 311300
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-13 修回日期:2020-11-08 出版日期:2021-10-25 发布日期:2021-12-25
  • 通讯作者: 顾光同,男,云南宣威人,副教授,研究方向为数量经济、绿色金融、环境经济学。E-mail: guguangtong@163.com
  • 作者简介:吴伟光,男,浙江缙云人,教授,研究方向为资源与环境经济学。E-mail: wuwgccap@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL158);国家自然科学基金项目(71873126);浙江省自然科学重点项目(LZ19G030001)

Determinants of the effectiveness of China’s pilot carbon market

WU Weiguang1,2,3(), ZHU Yalu1, GU Guangtong1,2,3()   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
    2. Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
    3. Institute of Ecological Civilization & Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
  • Received:2020-08-13 Revised:2020-11-08 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-12-25

摘要:

温室气体大量排放引起的全球变暖受到广泛关注,中国政府试图通过发展碳市场以缓解气候变化问题和实现经济的绿色可持续发展。碳市场的有效性不仅对于能否实现减排目标、有效降低减排成本有重要影响,而且对我国统一碳市场的建立具有重要参考价值。目前全国统一碳市场正处于政策设计、基础建设和模拟运行阶段,由于碳交易是人为创设的市场,配额分配、惩罚、可抵消等政策制度对其有效性的影响值得深入分析。本文基于我国7省市试点碳市场碳交易历史数据,首先构造指标体系,对试点碳市场有效性进行测度;然后建立双向固定效应模型,定量估计了政策制度因素差异对市场有效性的影响,旨在为优化我国统一碳市场政策制度、从而提高碳市场有效性提供依据。研究表明:①2014—2018年,我国7省市试点碳市场有效性峰值在一年之中二、三季度出现。各试点碳市场有效性相差较大,其中,湖北碳市场有效性最高,而天津、重庆碳市场有效性较低。②相较于需求状况而言,目前碳市场的供给状况对碳市场有效性的影响更大。从需求角度来看,控排企业数量、惩罚力度对有效性的影响较大;从供给角度来看,配额总量的影响作用较大。③宏观经济产业结构对碳市场有效性影响明显,尤其是三产比重。④地区可再生能源占比对碳市场有效性具有正面影响。基于上述研究结论,本文认为目前应重点完善配额发放模式、惩罚机制和逐步增加控排企业数量,以提高碳市场有效性。

关键词: 试点地区, 碳市场有效性, 基于熵的TOPSIS方法, 双向固定效应模型, 政策制度

Abstract:

Global warming caused by massive emissions of greenhouse gases has attracted widespread attention. The Chinese government tries to alleviate the problem of climate change and achieve green and sustainable economic development by developing the carbon market. The effectiveness of the carbon market not only has an important impact on achieving emission reduction targets and effectively lowering emission reduction costs, but also has important reference value for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China. At present, the national unified carbon market is in the stage of policy design, infrastructure construction, and simulation operation. Since carbon trading is an artificial market, the impact of quota allocation, punishment, offsetting and other policies and systems on its effectiveness is worthy of in-depth analysis. Based on the historical data of carbon trading market in seven cities and provinces, this study first constructed an indicator system to measure the effectiveness of the pilot carbon market, and then established a two-way fixed effects model and quantitatively estimated the impact of policy and institutional factors on market effectiveness. It aimed to provide a basis for optimizing China’s unified carbon market policy and institution, so as to improve the effectiveness of the carbon market. The research results show that: (1) From 2014 to 2018, the effectiveness of the pilot carbon market in seven cities and provinces in China peaked in the second and third quarters of the year. The effectiveness of the carbon market in the pilot areas varied greatly, among which the carbon market in Hubei Province was the most effective, while Tianjin and Chongqing’s carbon markets were less effective. (2) Currently the supply situation of the carbon market has a greater impact on the effectiveness of the carbon market than the demand situation. From a demand perspective, the number of companies that control emissions and the intensity of punishment have a greater impact on effectiveness. From a supply perspective, the total amount of allowances has a greater impact. (3) The macroeconomic industrial structure has a significant impact on the effectiveness of the carbon market, especially the proportion of tertiary industries. (4) The proportion of regional renewable energy has a positive impact on the effectiveness of carbon market. Based on these conclusions, the current focus should be to improve the quota distribution mode, improve the penalty mechanism, and gradually increase the number of companies that control emissions to improve the effectiveness of the carbon market.

Key words: pilot areas, carbon market effectiveness, TOPSIS method based on entropy, two way fixed effect model, policy system