资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10): 2105-2118.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.14

• 碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口年龄结构变动对碳排放的影响——基于生育率和预期寿命的跨国面板数据

刘丰1(), 王维国2   

  1. 1.上海社会科学院经济研究所,上海 200020
    2.东北财经大学经济学院,大连 116025
  • 收稿日期:2020-12-10 修回日期:2021-03-08 出版日期:2021-10-25 发布日期:2021-12-25
  • 作者简介:刘丰,男,浙江苍南人,助理研究员,研究方向为人口、资源与环境经济学,经济计量分析。E-mail: liuf22@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金后期资助优秀博士论文出版项目(21FYB026);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773012);上海市哲学社会科学规划青年课题(2020EJB004)

The impact of age structure on carbon emissions: Based on a cross-country panel data of fertility rate and life expectancy

LIU Feng1(), WANG Weiguo2   

  1. 1. Institute of Economics, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai 200020, China
    2. School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China
  • Received:2020-12-10 Revised:2021-03-08 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-12-25

摘要:

在即将进入深度老龄化社会的大背景下,中国完成碳排放目标需要重点关注人口年龄结构变化的影响。归纳世界人口年龄结构对碳排放作用的普遍规律,有助于更好地了解人口年龄结构对碳排放的作用机制。鉴于此,本文选取全球有代表性的55个经济体,从生育率和预期寿命两个维度出发,运用面板数据分析方法,实证研究并对比分析年龄结构对各经济体碳排放的差异化影响和作用路径。研究表明:①生育率和预期寿命对碳排放增长存在着非线性作用,生育率下降促进了碳排放的增长,而预期寿命延长对碳排放具有先减后增的作用;②随着老龄化的加剧,预期寿命在人口年龄结构对碳排放作用中的贡献越来越高;③生育率和预期寿命作用于碳排放的主导路径在发展中国家和发达国家之间存在着差异,前者以规模变化路径为主,而后者由效率技术变化路径主导。本文结论丰富了人口年龄结构对碳排放影响机制的研究,也为探索中国老龄化背景下碳减排路径提供政策上的启示。

关键词: 年龄结构, 人口老龄化, 生育率, 预期寿命, 碳排放, 非线性关系, 面板数据分析

Abstract:

In the context of an emerging deeply aged society, China needs to focus on the impact of demographic change on achieving carbon emissions goals. In fact, to summarize the universal rules of the effect of world’s population age structure on carbon emission can help to better understand the mechanism of population age structure to carbon emission. Thus, based on the panel data of 55 representative global economies, this study empirically and comparatively examines the differential impact of age structure on carbon emissions growth of economies as well as its mechanism from the perspective of fertility rate and life expectancy by using panel data analysis method. The results show that both fertility rate and life expectancy have nonlinear effect on carbon emissions growth. The carbon emissions growth increases with the decline in fertility rate, but decreases with the extension of life expectancy at first and then increased. With the aggravation of population aging, life expectancy plays an increasingly important role in the impact of age structure on carbon emissions. In terms of the main mode of action of fertility rate and life expectancy, the leading mechanism differs between the developing and developed countries. The developing and developed countries are mainly driven by the change of scale and change of efficiency, respectively. This study enriches the research of the relationship between population age structure and carbon emissions growth. Furthermore, the results have policy implications for the path of carbon emissions reduction during the time of population aging.

Key words: age structure, population aging, fertility rate, life expectancy, carbon emissions, nonlinearity, panel data analysis