长三角区域一体化与城市土地利用效率的协同测度及交互响应

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.10.13

资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10): 2093-2104.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.13

长三角区域一体化与城市土地利用效率的协同测度及交互响应

杨清可¹^,²(), 段学军³(), 王磊³, 王珅⁴, 范业婷¹^,², 朱高立¹^,²

1.南京财经大学公共管理学院,南京210023
2.自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,南京210017
3.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京210008
4.江苏省地质调查研究院,南京 210018

收稿日期:2020-11-10 修回日期:2021-01-15 出版日期:2021-10-25 发布日期:2021-12-25
通讯作者: 段学军,男,内蒙古赤峰人,研究员,研究方向为区域开发与可持续发展。E-mail: xjduan@niglas.ac.cn
作者简介:杨清可,男,山东滕州人,讲师,研究方向为区域规划与土地利用。E-mail: yangqingke66@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD1100101);自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室开放基金项目(2021CZEPK05);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(21YJC630183)

Collaborative measurement and interactive response between regional integration and urban land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta

YANG Qingke¹^,²(), DUAN Xuejun³(), WANG Lei³, WANG Shen⁴, FAN Yeting¹^,², ZHU Gaoli¹^,²

1. School of Public Administration, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China
2. Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210017, China
3. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
4. Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210018, China

Received:2020-11-10 Revised:2021-01-15 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-12-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市土地利用效率影响区域一体化中的要素流动方向和产业发展态势,土地利用效率的提高是驱动一体化发展的重要因素。如何有效协调长三角一体化和土地利用的良性关系,成为学界的研究热点。因此,本文基于区域一体化与城市土地利用效率的协同机理分析,构建区域一体化与土地利用效率效率评价体系,解析其时空演变特征;通过灰色关联分析验证了两者之间的关系,采用面板VAR模型探究交互响应机制。结果表明：①研究期内长三角一体化水平不断提升,“核心-外围”极化特征显著;城市土地利用效率上升明显,与一体化的演化趋势吻合。受区位条件、经济水平与资源等多种要素影响,区域一体化与土地利用效率的空间格局匹配失衡。②区域一体化与土地利用效率具有中高等级的关联度,两系统之间存在一定的关联。③长三角一体化与土地利用效率两系统间正负波动交替的非线性交互特征明显,其中区域一体化对土地利用效率具有负向累进的冲击效应,而城市土地利用效率对一体化冲击的正向增强效应逐渐减弱并收敛为0。根据上述研究结果,制定了差异化的长三角区域一体化发展和城市土地利用管控策略,以期为促进区域协调发展与城市土地高效利用提供科学参考。

关键词: 区域一体化, 城市土地利用效率, 交互响应, 面板VAR模型, 长三角

Abstract:

Based on the theoretical analysis of the synergy between regional integration and urban land use efficiency, this study constructed an evaluation index system of integration and efficiency respectively. It first analyzed the characteristics of change of the spatial and temporal patterns of integration and efficiency; then, it verified the collaborative relationship between integration and efficiency by using the grey correlation model; finally, it described the interactive response mechanism between them by using the panel-data vector auto regression (VAR) model. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2018, the level of regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta had continuously improved, and the level had been increasing year by year. Spatially, the core-periphery polarization characteristics are obvious, and the overall urban land use efficiency showed an obvious upward trend. At the macro level, there exist some coupling characteristics between urban land use efficiency and the trend of regional integration, but there is a spatial mismatch affected by the heterogeneity of locational conditions, economic development level, and resource elements. (2) The comprehensive grey correlation analysis between regional integration and urban land use efficiency shows that there exists a medium to high level of grey correlation, and the performance is relatively stable, which confirms that there is an interactive relationship. (3) There exists a two-way interactive Granger causality between regional integration and urban land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta. Both regional integration and urban land use efficiency have positive self-strengthening effect and inertial growth trend. The nonlinear characteristics of the interaction are obvious, and there is an interaction mechanism of positive or negative fluctuations alternately. The results of impulse response analysis show that regional integration had a sustained negative enhancement effect on the level of land use efficiency, while urban land use efficiency had a small positive response to the first three stages of regional integration, and then the positive enhancement effect gradually weakened and converged to 0 in the later stage.

Key words: regional integration, urban land use efficiency, interactive response, panel VAR, Yangtze River Delta

杨清可, 段学军, 王磊, 王珅, 范业婷, 朱高立. 长三角区域一体化与城市土地利用效率的协同测度及交互响应[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(10): 2093-2104.

YANG Qingke, DUAN Xuejun, WANG Lei, WANG Shen, FAN Yeting, ZHU Gaoli. Collaborative measurement and interactive response between regional integration and urban land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(10): 2093-2104.

图/表 8

表1

指标评价体系

目标层	准则层	指标层	指标含义与单位	权重
区域一体化	要素流动层面	人口流动强度	客运总量与总人口比值	0.105
		货物流动强度	货运总量与总人口比值/（t/万人）	0.095
		资金流动强度	金融机构贷款额与总人口比值/（亿元/万人）	0.153
		信息流动强度	电信业务量与总人口比值/（亿元/万人）	0.136
	产业布局层面	产业扩张强度	二、三产业年均增加值/亿元	0.204
		产业集聚程度	$Gini = ∑ ik (s ik - x i) 2$ ,式中： $s ik$ 为第 $i$ 城市第 $k$ 产业就业人数占该产业就业人数的比重, $k$ 取2,3; $x i$ 为第 $i$ 城市就业人数占城市群就业人数的比重。	0.115
		产业结构偏离度	$R = ∑ V k V L k L - 1$ ,式中： $V k$ 和 $L k$ 分别表示第k产业的产值和就业人数,k取1,2,3; $V$ 和 $L$ 分别表示所有产业的产值和就业人数。	0.085
		产业高级化指数	$Iu = TV SV$ ,式中： $SV$ 和 $TV$ 分别表示城市第二、三产业产值。	0.107
城市土地利用效率	土地投入力度	地均二、三产业从业人员	二、三产业从业人员与城市建设用地面积比值/（人/km²）	0.152
		地均固定资产投资	固定资产投资与城市建设用地面积比值/（亿元/km²）	0.063
		建设用地面积占比	城市建设用地面积与城市行政区面积比值	0.079
	土地开发强度	人口承载强度	城镇人口与城市建设用地面积比值/（万人/km²）	0.119
		城市工业用地比重	工业用地面积与城市建设用地面积比值	0.145
		城市用地结构强度	$Ls = ∑ z (A z × C z)$ ,式中： $A z$ 与 $C z$ 分别为第 $z$ 类土地利用分级指数和面积百分比^[30]。	0.122
	土地利用效益	地均二、三产业产值	二、三产业产值与城市建设用地面积比值/（亿元/km²）	0.152
		地均公共财政收入	公共财政收入与城市建设用地面积比值/（万元/km²）	0.063
		建成区绿化覆盖率	建成区绿化面积与城市建设用地面积比值	0.105

表1

图1

图2

表2

表3

表4

表5

图3

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年份	绝对值	相对值	综合值	年份	绝对值	相对值	综合值
2000	0.535	0.813	0.674	2010	0.601	0.687	0.644
2001	0.532	0.820	0.676	2011	0.681	0.751	0.716
2002	0.534	0.808	0.671	2012	0.469	0.722	0.596
2003	0.547	0.796	0.672	2013	0.563	0.800	0.681
2004	0.631	0.742	0.686	2014	0.611	0.843	0.727
2005	0.697	0.706	0.701	2015	0.631	0.832	0.731
2006	0.641	0.678	0.660	2016	0.678	0.810	0.744
2007	0.664	0.695	0.679	2017	0.665	0.795	0.730
2008	0.633	0.687	0.660	2018	0.658	0.846	0.752
2009	0.659	0.702	0.681

检验方法	LIC检验	IPS检验	ADF-Fisher检验
lnRI	-4.749***	-11.138***	-15.099***
lnULUE	-2.246**	16.448***	12.283***

变量	原假设	统计检验	结论
lnRI	lnRI不是lnULUE的格兰杰原因	16.487***	拒绝原假设
lnULUE	lnULUE不是lnRI的格兰杰原因	12.188***	拒绝原假设

类型	变量	系数	变量	系数
lnRI方程	L1_h_lnRI	0.776(12.88)***	L1_h_lnULUE	-0.036(-5.35)***
	L2_h_lnRI	0.102(6.38)***	L2_h_lnULUE	-0.154(-2.51)**
	L3_h_lnRI	0.050(5.73)***	L3_h_lnULUE	0.119(4.75)***
	L4_h_lnRI	-0.049(-2.06)**	L4_h_lnULUE	0.039(2.03)**
lnULUE方程	L1_h_lnRI	-0.145(-2.68)***	L1_h_lnULUE	0.659(6.75)***
	L2_h_lnRI	-0.191(-3.49)***	L2_h_lnULUE	0.051(0.90)
	L3_h_lnRI	-0.033(-2.04)**	L3_h_lnULUE	0.015(0.26)
	L4_h_lnRI	-0.016(3.85)***	L4_h_lnULUE	-0.044(-1.12)

长三角区域一体化与城市土地利用效率的协同测度及交互响应

Collaborative measurement and interactive response between regional integration and urban land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta

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