资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10): 2068-2080.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.11

• 资源管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带水-能源-粮食耦合效率的时空演化及影响因素

秦腾(), 佟金萍   

  1. 常州大学商学院,常州 213164
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-08 修回日期:2020-10-18 出版日期:2021-10-25 发布日期:2021-12-25
  • 作者简介:秦腾,男,江苏宿迁人,博士,讲师,研究方向为资源经济学。E-mail: qtblue@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BGL191);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YF0404600)

Spatiotemporal change of water-energy-food coupling efficiency and influencing factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

QIN Teng(), TONG Jinping   

  1. School of Business, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213164, China
  • Received:2020-07-08 Revised:2020-10-18 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-12-25

摘要:

推动资源管理方式向“多资源”协同转变,保障水资源、能源和粮食关系的协同优化,是应对资源供需矛盾和安全风险的有效手段。基于构建的水-能源-粮食耦合协调指标体系,本文以长江经济带为研究对象,在考虑非期望产出的前提下测度了2003—2017年各省份水-能源-粮食耦合效率,进而借助核密度估计和空间计量模型探究了长江经济带水-能源-粮食耦合效率的时空演变规律及关键驱动因素。结果表明:①研究期内长江经济带水-能源-粮食耦合效率均值在0.65~0.95之间波动,未达到生产前沿,仍然具有一定的提升空间;②总体时序变化呈现为“下降—上升—下降”波动特征,且各省份呈现一定差异,2010年之后江西、湖南、贵州和云南呈现下降趋势,上海、浙江、安徽和四川趋于平稳,江苏、湖北和重庆呈现较大波动;③各地区之间的差异有所增强,两极分化现象初显,高值地区集中分布在长三角和川渝地区,而低值地区则不断向长江经济带上中游转移;④技术进步、人力资本水平、对外开放程度和产业结构是推动长江经济带水-能源-粮食耦合效率提升的重要正向因素,而经济发展和信息化水平的正向作用尚未显现;此外,空间计量模型的回归结果显示,邻近地区水-能源-粮食耦合效率的优化对本地区也有积极的正向影响。因此,除了要根据各省份的实际情况制定差异性的政策,还要加快创建“多资源”协同管理机制,充分发挥区域间的正向溢出效应,实现区域水-能源-粮食耦合效率的全面提升。

关键词: 长江经济带, 水-能源-粮食, 耦合效率, 超效率SBM模型, 空间计量模型

Abstract:

Promoting “multi-resources” synergy and optimization of the relationship of resources, energy, and food systems are effective ways to address resource supply and demand conflicts and security risks. Based on the water-energy-food coupling coordination indicator system established in this study and using the super-slacks-based measure (SBM) model, we measured the water-energy-food coupling efficiency of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB), and analyzed its spatial and temporal changes and driving factors with kernel density estimation and a spatial econometric model. The results show that the overall water-energy-food coupling efficiency fluctuated between 0.65-0.95, which presented a periodical trend of declining-rising-declining from 2003 to 2017. There were certain differences in different provinces. Taking 2010 as the time node, water-energy-food coupling efficiency declined in Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou and Yunnan, tended to be stable in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui and Sichuan, fluctuated in Jiangsu, Hubei and Chongqing. The imbalance and polarization intensified with high-value regions concentrating in the Yangtze River Delta and Sichuan-Chongqing regions, while low-value regions shifting to the upper and middle reaches of the YEB. Technological progress, human capital, openness, and industrial structure were all important factors that can exert positive effect on improving water-energy-food coupling efficiency in the YEB. However, the positive effect of economic development and informatization had not yet appeared. Moreover, according to the regression results of the spatial econometric model, local water-energy-food coupling efficiency can also be improved due to spillover effects from neighboring areas. Therefore, in order to improve the overall water-energy-food coupling efficiency, it is necessary to develop a “multi-resources” synergy mechanism, exert positive spatial spillover effect, and formulate targeted policies based on the actual situation of each province.

Key words: Yangtze River Economic Belt, water-energy-food, coupling efficiency, Super-SBM model, spatial econometric model