不确定环境下海洋牧场生态安全评价——以荣成市国家级海洋牧场示范区为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.10.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究海洋牧场的生态安全问题对贯彻生态优先理念、解决资源环境问题、落实国家与地方政策具有重要的现实意义。然而,我国海洋牧场尚处于建设阶段,因数据不完备而带来的决策不确定问题在当前阶段异常显著。为了解决上述问题,本文首先基于DPSIR理论框架从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应5个层面构建了海洋牧场生态安全的评价指标体系,然后通过引入平均效用熵权法计算了具有公正客观性的指标权重,在此基础上应用解析证据推理规则构建了海洋牧场生态安全指数及分项指数的评价方法,最后结合实际调研数据对荣成市7家国家级海洋牧场示范区进行了评价。评价结果表明：①荣成市海洋牧场在准则层的权重排序为响应>影响>状态>压力>驱动力,表明该市7家国家级海洋牧场在生态安全表现差异程度上,响应的差异较大,影响和状态的差异居中,压力和驱动力的差异较小。②荣成市海洋牧场生态安全指数整体处于中等偏下水平且分布较为均衡,其中,处于较为安全和临界安全等级的各1家,处于较不安全等级的有5家。③荣成市7家国家级海洋牧场示范区在驱动力、压力、影响、响应4个准则上的生态安全分项指数均处于临界安全等级,而在状态准则上的生态安全分项指数处于较不安全等级。案例研究证明,本文提出的理论和方法对解决不确定环境下的海洋牧场生态安全评价问题具有可行性。

关键词: 生态安全, 海洋牧场, 解析证据推理, 平均效用熵权法, 环境不确定性, DPSIR模型, 国家级海洋牧场示范区, 荣成市

Abstract:

The research on the ecological security of marine ranching (MRES) is of great significance for implementing the concept of ecological priority, solving the problems of resources and environment, and implementing national and local policies. However, marine ranching in China is still in the early developmentstage, and the decision-making uncertainty caused by incomplete data is extremely significant. In order to solve these problems, this study developed a MRES evaluation indicator system based on the driving force, pressure, state, impact, and response (DPSIR) framework, then introduced the Ave-entropy method to calculate the indicator weights and applied the analytical evidence reasoning rule to build the MRES index and sub-index evaluation method, and finally conducted an case study of seven national marine ranching demonstration zones in Rongcheng City by combining with the actual research data. The results show that the weights of DPSIR dimensions in Rongcheng marine ranching zones is: Response>Impact>State>Pressure>Driving Force, indicating that the MRES of the marine ranching zones showed a great difference in response, the difference in impact and state was medium, and the difference in pressure and driving force was small. The index mean value of MRES in Rongcheng City is at the lower middle level and the distribution is balanced. Among the seven marine ranching demonstration zones in Rongcheng City, one is at the relatively safe and another at the critical safety level respectively, and five are at the less safe level. Driving force, pressure, impact, and response of the seven national marine ranching demonstration zones are at the critical safety level, while the state dimension is at the less safe level. The case study proves that the proposed theory and method are feasible to solve the MRES problem under enviromental uncertainty.

Key words: ecological security, marine ranching, analytical evidential reasoning rule, ave-entropy method, environmental uncertainty, DPSIR framework, national marine ranching demonstration zones, Rongcheng City

杜元伟, 王一凡, 孙浩然. 不确定环境下海洋牧场生态安全评价——以荣成市国家级海洋牧场示范区为例[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(10): 2055-2067.

DU Yuanwei, WANG Yifan, SUN Haoran. Ecological security evaluation of marine ranching under uncertainty: A case study of national marine ranching demonstration zones in Rongcheng[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(10): 2055-2067.

图/表 6

表1

海洋牧场生态安全指标体系

准则层	要素层	指标层	指标含义及赋值说明	类型
驱动力D	政策驱动D₁	政策扶持e₁	政府支持政策的落实度/%	正向型
	经济驱动D₂	利润率e₂	年度所获利润占主营业务收入比率/%	正向型
		财政专项资金投入e₃	专项资金项目补贴/万元	正向型
		政府补贴e₄	政府补贴金额/万元	正向型
	责任驱动D₃	企业生态环保意识e₅	环保经费占主营业务收入的比重/%	正向型
压力P	开发压力P₁	底播和增殖放流量e₆	本年度增殖放流数量/万尾	正向型
		养殖方式绿色程度e₇	生产养殖模式：单一品种养殖=1,立体生态循环养殖=2,多营养层次综合养殖=3	正向型
		人工鱼礁建设与维护e₈	人工鱼礁单位面积投入资金/（万元/hm²）=投入资金/人工鱼礁面积	正向型
	环境压力P₂	水污染e₉	是否存在富营养化：是=1,否=0	负向型
	环境压力P₂	自然灾害e₁₀	年度自然灾害发生频率/次	负向型
状态S	海洋环境S₁	水质e₁₁	年度水质达标：四级标准=4,三级标准=3,二级标准=2,一级标准=1	负向型
	海洋环境S₁	沉积物e₁₂	沉积物达标：三类标准=3,二类标准=2,一类标准=1	负向型
	生物资源S₂	目标生物资源e₁₃	增殖养护对象生物量达标：一级标准=1,二级标准=2,三级标准=3,四级标准=4,五级标准=5,六级标准=6	正向型
	生物资源S₂	生物多样性e₁₄	生物多样性指数达标：低水平=1,中低水平=2,中高水平=3,高水平=4	正向型
影响I	生态影响I₁	海藻/海草栽培e₁₅	本年度海藻场和海草床栽培面积/hm²	正向型
	生态影响I₁	渔业资源改善e₁₆	较上年主要增殖或恢复对象生物量标准：降级=0,持平=1,升级=2	正向型
	社会影响I₂	渔民就业安置e₁₇	吸纳或安置周边渔民就业总人数	正向型
	经济影响I₃	产业链拉动e₁₈	新型经营模式推广范围：未形成=0,全市=1,全省=2,全国=3	正向型
		水产品效益e₁₉	水产品亩产收益R/万元,低=0（R≤1.84）,较低=1（1.84<R≤3.38）,中等=2（3.38<R≤4.92）,较高=3（4.92<R≤6.64）,高=4（R>6.64）	正向型
		灾害损失e₂₀	灾害是否造成严重后果：是=1,否=0	负向型
响应R	科技化水平R₁	信息化水平e₂₁	是否建有可视化、智能化、信息化监测系统：是=1,否=0	正向型
		人才数量e₂₂	本科以上员工人数	正向型
		科技管理水平e₂₃	合作协定数量/个	正向型
		科研支撑程度e₂₄	独立承担科研课题：是=1,否=0	正向型
	管理维护R₂	日常设施管护e₂₅	专用海上维护平台面积/hm²	正向型
		渔业资源管理e₂₆	采用生物控制技术并选择性捕捞：是=1,否=0	正向型
		制度建设水平e₂₇	海洋牧场运行管理档案完善程度：很差=0,较差=1,一般=2,较好=3,很好=4	正向型
		巡查维护e₂₈	海洋牧场巡查现情况：从不巡查=0,有问题时巡查=1,常态化巡查=2	正向型
	监测与科普R₃	年度监测e₂₉	监测技术报告提交情况：是=1,否=0	正向型
		科普教育e₃₀	年度接待学习人数	正向型
		示范推广e₃₁	年度举办科普教育活动次数	正向型

表1

图1

表2

图2

图3

图4

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