资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10): 2026-2041.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.10.08
收稿日期:
2020-12-05
修回日期:
2021-04-27
出版日期:
2021-10-25
发布日期:
2021-12-25
作者简介:
潘丹,女,江西宜春人,教授,主要从事农业经济和资源环境经济研究。E-mail: pandan@jxufe.edu.cn
基金资助:
Received:
2020-12-05
Revised:
2021-04-27
Online:
2021-10-25
Published:
2021-12-25
摘要:
命令控制型和市场激励型环境规制,孰能更有效地提升造林面积从而更好地保护森林生态环境一直存在争议。本文利用国家重点生态功能区政策这一命令控制型环境规制,和生态转移支付政策这一市场激励型环境规制作为准自然实验,基于2006—2016年1372个县级数据,采用双重差分法识别了这两类环境规制对造林面积影响的因果效应及政策相对有效性。研究结论如下:①与命令控制型环境规制相比,市场激励型环境规制对造林面积的影响更为显著且具有长期效果。表现为国家重点生态功能区政策使造林面积提升了6.7%,但该效应随着时间推移呈现出下降的趋势;生态转移支付政策使造林面积提升了8.2%,且该效应随着时间推移逐步增强。②异质性分析发现,初始造林面积较高和经济发展水平较高的县表现出更高的造林面积提升效应。③进一步的成本收益估算表明,国家重点生态功能区和生态转移支付政策通过提高造林面积带来的环境健康效应分别为5926.11亿元和7256.14亿元,是其减少财政收入所产生的经济成本的2.19和1.92倍。本文结论有助于我国制定长期有效的森林环境规制政策。
潘丹. 命令控制型和市场激励型环境规制对造林面积的影响——来自中国县级层面的准自然实验证据[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(10): 2026-2041.
PAN Dan. The impact of command-and-control and market-based environmental regulations on afforestation area: Quasi-natural experimental evidence from county data in China[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(10): 2026-2041.
表1
国家重点生态功能区政策和生态转移支付政策对造林面积影响的基准结果
造林面积 | ||
---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | |
国家重点生态功能区政策 | 0.067**(0.031) | |
生态转移支付政策 | 0.082**(0.041) | |
年降水量 | -0.000(0.001) | -0.002(0.004) |
年均气温 | 0.000(0.000) | 0.000(0.000) |
人均GDP | 0.010*(0.005) | 0.006**(0.003) |
人口密度 | -7.039***(2.117) | -6.258***(2.091) |
耕地面积 | -3.745**(1.943) | -2.286**(1.227) |
时间效应 | 控制 | 控制 |
地区效应 | 控制 | 控制 |
R2 | 0.233 | 0.154 |
观测值 | 12607 | 13476 |
表2
国家重点生态功能区政策和生态转移支付政策对造林面积影响的动态效应
造林面积 | ||
---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | |
国家重点生态功能区政策 | 0.067**(0.031) | |
生态转移支付政策 | 0.082**(0.041) | |
实施政策后1年 | 0.062***(0.023) | 0.084**(0.033) |
实施政策后2年 | 0.037**(0.016) | 0.085**(0.035) |
实施政策后3年 | 0.049(0.033) | 0.089*(0.051) |
实施政策后4年 | 0.041(0.035) | 0.096***(0.034) |
实施政策后5年 | 0.047(0.035) | 0.101**(0.058) |
控制变量 | 控制 | 控制 |
时间效应 | 控制 | 控制 |
地区效应 | 控制 | 控制 |
R2 | 0.142 | 0.154 |
观测值 | 12607 | 13476 |
表7
稳健性检验四:排除其他政策影响后的结果
排除低碳城市政策的影响 | 排除生态文明建设示范政策的影响 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | ||
国家重点生态功能区政策 | 0.047***(0.013) | 0.057**(0.028) | |||
生态转移支付政策 | 0.078***(0.032) | 0.069***(0.020) | |||
低碳城市政策虚拟变量 | 0.031 (0.029) | 0.008(0.014) | |||
生态文明建设示范政策虚拟变量 | 0.024(0.132) | 0.019(0.035) | |||
控制变量 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | |
固定效应 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | |
R2 | 0.081 | 0.090 | 0.142 | 0.174 | |
观测值 | 12607 | 13476 | 12607 | 13476 |
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