金属资源产业对外直接投资对中国与东道国全球价值链地位的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.10.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

经济转型升级、提高国际竞争力离不开金属资源,其重要性不言而喻。在大国博弈下,中国在金属资源产业对外直接投资中如何突破价值链“低端锁定”,成为区域乃至全球经济的引领者,带动东道国金属产业加速发展,显得至关重要。本文借助2009—2018年中国金属资源产业对外直接投资数据,考察了直接投资对本国和东道国双边金属资源产业在全球价值链中地位的影响,以及选择不同投资模式、投资区域对中国金属资源产业价值链地位提升的影响。研究结果显示：①从总体上看,对外绿地投资显著促进中国金属资源产业价值链分工地位提升。②相对于发达国家,中国对位于价值链高端的发展中国家直接投资产生的溢出效应更大。③中国金属资源产业对外直接投资促进了东道国金属资源产业在全球价值链中的地位提升,且对发展中国家的促进更加显著,实现了合作共赢的局面。本文对金属资源产业价值链升级的研究有利于探寻中国全球治理和话语权提升的应对策略,对于政府更好地精准施策具有一定的参考意义。

关键词: 全球价值链, 金属矿产资源, 绿地投资, 并购投资, 价值链攀升, 资源产业

Abstract:

The economic transformation and upgrading and the improvement of international competitiveness are inseparable from metal resources, and their importance is self-evident. Under the great power game, it is very important for China to break through the “low-end lock” of value chain, become the leader of regional economy, and accelerate the development of metal industry of the host country in the metal resource industry outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Based on country-specific data from 2009 to 2018, this study examined the impact of direct investment on the status of China and the host countries of metal resource industry OFDI in the global value chain (GVC), as well as the role of different investment modes and investment regions in improving the status of China’s metal resource industry in the GVCs. The results show that: (1) On the whole, greenfield investment in the metal resource industry significantly promoted the improvement of the division of labor in the value chain of metal minerals in China. (2) Compared with developed countries, China’s direct investment in underdeveloped countries at the high end of the value chain had a greater spillover effect. (3) China’s foreign direct investment in the metal resource industry can achieve win-win cooperation, which promotes the upgrading of the host countries’ metal resource industry in the global value chain, and has a more significant impact on underdeveloped countries. This research on the upgrading of the value chain in the metal resource industry is conducive to exploring strategies for promoting China’s role and power in global governance, and has certain reference significance for the government to better implement targeted policies.

Key words: global value chain, metal mineral resources, greenfield investment, cross-border mergers, value chain climb, resource industry

李璇, 倪旭, 张海亮. 金属资源产业对外直接投资对中国与东道国全球价值链地位的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(10): 1976-1989.

LI Xuan, NI Xu, ZHANG Hailiang. Impacts of metal resource industry outward foreign direct investments on positions of China and the host countries in the global value chain[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(10): 1976-1989.

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产业链环节	SITC编码
上游	274、278、281、282、283、284、285、286、287、288、289
中游	522、523、524、525
下游	671、672、673、674、675、676、677、678、679、681、682、683、684、685、686、687、689、691、692、693、694、695、696、697、699

排名	国家	出口技术复杂度	排名	国家	出口技术复杂度
1	澳大利亚	29594.74	18	韩国	22444.43
2	挪威	29098.85	19	阿根廷	22065.69
3	以色列	27327.69	20	土耳其	21972.09
4	加拿大	25330.55	21	越南	21814.94
5	法国	25231.20	22	埃及	21652.49
6	英国	25221.95	23	墨西哥	20984.24
7	巴西	25192.77	24	俄罗斯	20334.22
8	美国	24682.38	25	南非	19467.37
9	德国	24672.76	26	巴基斯坦	18032.22
10	新加坡	24232.79	27	哈萨克斯坦	16530.51
11	沙特	24096.27	28	印度尼西亚	15607.31
12	意大利	23959.74	29	秘鲁	11992.32
13	中国	23897.45	30	智利	10470.58
14	泰国	23445.08	31	老挝	9734.23
15	马来西亚	23188.64	32	缅甸	9576.62
16	印度	23047.46	33	赞比亚	7806.40
17	日本	22922.92	34	津巴布韦	5435.91

变量	变量符号	均值	中位数	标准差	最小值	最大值
东道国出口技术复杂度	aexport	19336.53	20996.19	5789.25	4898.31	30497.88
中国出口技术复杂度	caexport	22223.57	22413.17	1510.74	18465.53	23897.45
中国对外直接投资/亿美元	ofdi	21.02	2.46	105.0	1.14	1100.0
中国绿地投资/亿美元	green	20.08	2.19	0.104	1.14	1083.0
中国并购投资/亿美元	ma	6.87	0.09	20.43	0.00	207.45
东道国外商直接投资/亿美元	fdi	336.5	131.0	612.2	186.7	5091.0
东道国贸易开放度	open	0.13	0.06	0.22	0.01	1.60
东道国工业劳动力规模/百万人	lab	21.02	21.74	5.14	6.88	29.24
东道国矿产资源禀赋/亿美元	res	39.69	4.67	63.96	0.00	362.7
东道国金属行业研发投入	rd	0.32	0.81	0.31	0.00	1.64
中国外商直接投资/亿美元	cfdi	2274	2420	501.0	1311.0	2909.0
中国贸易开放度	copen	0.47	0.47	0.06	0.39	0.55
中国工业劳动力规模/百万人	clab	29.06	28.99	0.84	27.80	30.30
中国矿产资源禀赋/亿美元	cres	565.4	400.0	399.10	304.0	1591.0
中国金属行业研发投入	crd	1.83	0.21	1.82	1.49	2.15

	一般面板模型			GMM模型
	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）	（6）
lnofdi	0.011***			0.001*
lnofdi	(4.41)			(1.50)
lngreen		0.011***			0.001*
lngreen		(4.63)			(1.40)
lnma			0.000			0.001
lnma			(0.45)			(0.48)
lncfdi	0.325***	0.325***	0.331***	0.352***	0.352***	0.319***
lncfdi	(28.04)	(28.17)	(29.22)	(39.73)	(39.82)	(25.19)
clab	-0.041***	-1.845***	-1.959***	-0.0465***	-0.0467***	-0.0591***
clab	(-7.82)	(-22.07)	(-21.66)	(-10.90)	(-10.97)	(-12.94)
copen	-1.843***	-0.0414***	-0.0551***	-1.992***	-1.995***	-1.935***
copen	(-21.75)	(-8.04)	(-9.88)	(-37.76)	(-37.97)	(-22.79)
lncrd	0.713***	0.717***	0.888***	0.789***	0.791***	0.931***
lncrd	(19.93)	(20.65)	(23.28)	(21.81)	(21.96)	(14.74)
lncres	0.094***	0.095***	0.104***	0.098***	0.098***	0.107***
lncres	(15.84)	(16.12)	(13.87)	(18.50)	(18.55)	(12.21)
常数项	5.609***	5.627***	6.931***	5.657***	5.660***	7.538***
常数项	(16.12)	(16.22)	(16.24)	(14.67)	(14.69)	(12.94)
R²	0.9058	0.9064	0.9018
Hausman P	0.0001	0.0001	0.1073
Wald				3404.99	3409.87	1686.75

	式（1）			式（2）
	QREG（25）	QREG（50）	QREG（75）	QREG（25）	QREG（50）	QREG（75）
lnofdi	0.006*	0.010***	0.015***
lnofdi	(1.88)	(3.50)	(3.11)
lngreen				0.006**	0.010***	0.015***
lngreen				(1.96)	(3.71)	(3.34)
lncfdi	0.345***	0.328***	0.306***	0.345***	0.327***	0.304***
lncfdi	(21.46)	(23.96)	(13.46)	(21.93)	(24.75)	(13.93)
clab	-0.033***	-0.040***	-0.048***	-0.034***	-0.040***	-0.049***
clab	(-5.79)	(-8.26)	(-5.95)	(-6.04)	(-8.71)	(-6.30)
copen	-2.204***	-1.886***	-1.477***	-2.215***	-1.896***	-1.480***
copen	(-25.81)	(-20.27)	(-11.84)	(-26.71)	(-20.80)	(-12.37)
lncrd	0.803***	0.723***	0.621***	0.809***	0.730***	0.626***
lncrd	(15.96)	(16.17)	(8.69)	(16.64)	(17.06)	(9.23)
lncres	0.111***	0.0960***	0.0767***	0.112***	0.0973***	0.0778***
lncres	(16.07)	(15.02)	(7.79)	(16.47)	(15.59)	(8.14)