旱灾风险防范下农户种植策略与政府主导目标一致性——以内蒙古兴和县为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.09.14

资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (9): 1889-1902.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.09.14

旱灾风险防范下农户种植策略与政府主导目标一致性——以内蒙古兴和县为例

郭浩¹^,²^,³(), 江耀³, 王静爱³^,⁴, 梁勤欧¹^,²()

1.浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,金华 321004
2.浙江师范大学遥感与环境灾害研究中心,金华 321004
3.北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
4.青海省人民政府—北京师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,西宁 810008

收稿日期:2020-11-13 修回日期:2021-07-28 出版日期:2021-09-25 发布日期:2021-11-25
通讯作者: 梁勤欧,男,内蒙古呼和浩特人,教授,主要从事地理信息系统应用研究。E-mail: qoliang@sina.com
作者简介:郭浩,男,安徽宿州人,讲师,主要从事自然灾害风险评估与风险防范研究。E-mail: ghzjnu@zjnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41671501)

Consistency of farmers’ planting strategies and government objectives for drought risk governance:A case study of Xinghe County of Inner Mongolia

GUO Hao¹^,²^,³(), JIANG Yao³, WANG Jing’ai³^,⁴, LIANG Qin’ou¹^,²()

1. College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China
2. Remote Sensing Application & Environmental Disaster Risk Research Center, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China
3. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
4. Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People’s Government of Qinghai Province & Beijing Normal University, Xining 810008, China

Received:2020-11-13 Revised:2021-07-28 Online:2021-09-25 Published:2021-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化背景下旱灾频率、范围和强度的增加给农业生产活动带来极大的影响,为了解旱灾风险防范过程中,农户行为与政府目标的一致性程度,促进农户与政府风险防范协同一致,本文从提高经济收入和增强干旱适应两个维度评价内蒙古兴和县农户的种植策略及其与政府规划目标的一致性,并计算一致性指数。结果表明：①有81.67%的农户种植策略受经验影响较大,选择种植适应性较高的作物,农业种植条件相对较好的农户其种植策略更侧重干旱适应性,以保证稳定的农业生产;②根据农户种植策略与政府目标的差异,可将农户划分为4类,其中高收入-高适应型农户仅占9.98%,且主要分布在兴和县政府驻地附近,约有20.69%的农户属于低收入-低适应型,主要分布在研究区的南北边界地带,其与政府目标的一致性水平较低,一致性指数平均值为-0.106,低收入-高适应型农户和高收入-低适应型农户分别占所有农户的60.26%和9.07%;③总种植面积和作物多样性两个因素对农户种植策略与政府目标一致性影响最大,其中作物多样性对经济收入偏低农户的目标一致性有正向影响,而对经济收入偏高的农户则具有负向的影响。本文可为旱灾风险防范相关政策制定,提升综合风险防范水平等提供科学参考。

关键词: 农业旱灾, 风险防范, 种植策略, 降水耦合度, 目标一致性, 雨养农业区, 内蒙古兴和县

Abstract:

Under the background of climate change, the increase of frequency, spatial scope, and intensity of drought has a great impact on agricultural production. In order to understand the consistency between farmers’ behaviors and government objectives and promote the coordination between farmers and the government in the process of drought risk governance, this study analyzed the farmers’ planting strategies in semiarid and rain-fed agricultural areas and evaluated their consistency with the government objectives from the two dimensions of increasing economic income and enhancing drought adaptation based on the perspective of drought risk governance. The results show that: (1) 81.67% of farmers chose the crops with higher adaptability because of their experiences. Farmers with relatively good agricultural planting conditions pay more attention to drought adaptability to ensure stable agricultural production. (2) According to the differences between farmers’ planting strategies and government objectives, farmers can be divided into 4 categories. Only 9.98% of the farmers belong to the high-income and high-adaptability group and they are mainly distributed around government station, while 20.69% of the farmers belong to the low-income and low-adaptation group, mainly distributed near the north or south border of the study area and the consistency between their planting strategies and government objectives is low. Low-income and high-adaptation farmers, high-income and low- adaptation farmers account for 60.26% and 9.07%, respectively. (3) Total planting area and crop diversity have the greatest impact on the consistency. Crop diversity has a positive impact on the consistency of farmers with lower economic income, while it has a negative impact on farmers with higher economic income. This study can provide a scientific reference for the formulation of related policies and for improving the level of integrated risk governance.

Key words: agricultural drought, risk governance, planting strategy, precipitation coupling degree, target consistency, rain-fed agricultural area, Xinghe County of Inner Mongolia

郭浩, 江耀, 王静爱, 梁勤欧. 旱灾风险防范下农户种植策略与政府主导目标一致性——以内蒙古兴和县为例[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(9): 1889-1902.

GUO Hao, JIANG Yao, WANG Jing’ai, LIANG Qin’ou. Consistency of farmers’ planting strategies and government objectives for drought risk governance:A case study of Xinghe County of Inner Mongolia[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(9): 1889-1902.

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统计类别	指标	数量/户	比例/%	统计类别	指标	数量/户	比例/%
性别	男	452	82.03	抚养比/%	≥50	116	21.05
性别	女	99	17.97	农业劳动人口比例/%	<50	102	18.51
年龄/岁	<50	62	11.25	农业劳动人口比例/%	50	151	27.41
	[50, 60)	136	24.68	(50, 100)		68	12.34
	[60, 70)	235	42.65	100		230	41.74
	≥70	118	21.42	总种植面积/亩	<10	107	19.42
受教育程度	不识字	106	19.24	总种植面积/亩	[10, 20)	178	32.31
	小学	209	37.93	[20, 30)		117	21.23
	初中	188	34.12	[30, 50)		89	16.15
	高中或中专	39	7.08	≥50		60	10.89
	大专及以上	9	1.63	作物多样性	0.0	42	7.62
家庭人口/人	≤2	317	57.53		(0.0~1.0)	72	13.07
	[3, 4]	182	33.03		[1.0, 1.5)	138	25.05
	≥5	52	9.44	[1.5, 2.0)		203	36.84
抚养比/%	0	368	66.79	≥2.0	96	17.42
抚养比/%	(0, 50)	67	12.16

作物	平均产量/（0.5 kg/亩）	平均收购价格/（元/0.5 kg）	作物	平均产量/（0.5 kg/亩）	平均收购价格/（元/0.5 kg）
玉米	592.35	0.74	土豆	1776.84	0.58
小麦	172.60	0.98	胡麻	136.62	2.25
莜麦	200.67	1.23	葵花	303.46	2.04
谷黍	373.04	1.33	甜菜	4250.00	0.23
豆类	179.78	1.99	青贮玉米	4416.67	0.15

作物	生育期降水耦合度C	生育期作物需水量ET_t/mm
玉米	0.63	457.87
小麦	0.53	474.76
莜麦	0.74	303.00
谷黍	0.57	503.76
豆类	0.62	465.97
土豆	0.6	490.74
胡麻	0.64	440.12
葵花	0.57	498.78
甜菜	0.51	628.17
青贮玉米	0.66	446.78

一致性指数		年龄	受教育水平	家庭人口	抚养比	农业劳动人口	总种植面积	作物多样性	R²
D1	K-W检验p	0.642	0.702	0.954	0.869	0.883	0.238	0.003**	-
D1	回归系数	-	-	-	-	-	-	-0.095**	0.513
D2	K-W检验p	0.147	0.476	0.218	0.090	0.775	0.004**	0.428	-
D2	回归系数	-	-	-	-	-	-0.003**	-0.131**	0.324
D3	K-W检验p	0.342	0.903	0.223	0.110	0.763	0.944	0.003**	-
D3	回归系数	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.122**	0.314
D4	K-W检验p	0.695	0.733	0.791	0.871	0.389	0.027*	0.000**	-
D4	回归系数	-	-	-	-	-	-0.001**	0.059**	0.138

旱灾风险防范下农户种植策略与政府主导目标一致性——以内蒙古兴和县为例

Consistency of farmers’ planting strategies and government objectives for drought risk governance:A case study of Xinghe County of Inner Mongolia

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