资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (9): 1889-1902.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.09.14
郭浩1,2,3(), 江耀3, 王静爱3,4, 梁勤欧1,2(
)
收稿日期:
2020-11-13
修回日期:
2021-07-28
出版日期:
2021-09-25
发布日期:
2021-11-25
通讯作者:
梁勤欧,男,内蒙古呼和浩特人,教授,主要从事地理信息系统应用研究。E-mail: qoliang@sina.com作者简介:
郭浩,男,安徽宿州人,讲师,主要从事自然灾害风险评估与风险防范研究。E-mail: ghzjnu@zjnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
GUO Hao1,2,3(), JIANG Yao3, WANG Jing’ai3,4, LIANG Qin’ou1,2(
)
Received:
2020-11-13
Revised:
2021-07-28
Online:
2021-09-25
Published:
2021-11-25
摘要:
气候变化背景下旱灾频率、范围和强度的增加给农业生产活动带来极大的影响,为了解旱灾风险防范过程中,农户行为与政府目标的一致性程度,促进农户与政府风险防范协同一致,本文从提高经济收入和增强干旱适应两个维度评价内蒙古兴和县农户的种植策略及其与政府规划目标的一致性,并计算一致性指数。结果表明:①有81.67%的农户种植策略受经验影响较大,选择种植适应性较高的作物,农业种植条件相对较好的农户其种植策略更侧重干旱适应性,以保证稳定的农业生产;②根据农户种植策略与政府目标的差异,可将农户划分为4类,其中高收入-高适应型农户仅占9.98%,且主要分布在兴和县政府驻地附近,约有20.69%的农户属于低收入-低适应型,主要分布在研究区的南北边界地带,其与政府目标的一致性水平较低,一致性指数平均值为-0.106,低收入-高适应型农户和高收入-低适应型农户分别占所有农户的60.26%和9.07%;③总种植面积和作物多样性两个因素对农户种植策略与政府目标一致性影响最大,其中作物多样性对经济收入偏低农户的目标一致性有正向影响,而对经济收入偏高的农户则具有负向的影响。本文可为旱灾风险防范相关政策制定,提升综合风险防范水平等提供科学参考。
郭浩, 江耀, 王静爱, 梁勤欧. 旱灾风险防范下农户种植策略与政府主导目标一致性——以内蒙古兴和县为例[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(9): 1889-1902.
GUO Hao, JIANG Yao, WANG Jing’ai, LIANG Qin’ou. Consistency of farmers’ planting strategies and government objectives for drought risk governance:A case study of Xinghe County of Inner Mongolia[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(9): 1889-1902.
表1
样本农户基本特征及描述统计
统计类别 | 指标 | 数量/户 | 比例/% | 统计类别 | 指标 | 数量/户 | 比例/% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
性别 | 男 | 452 | 82.03 | 抚养比/% | ≥50 | 116 | 21.05 |
女 | 99 | 17.97 | 农业劳动人口比例/% | <50 | 102 | 18.51 | |
年龄/岁 | <50 | 62 | 11.25 | 50 | 151 | 27.41 | |
[50, 60) | 136 | 24.68 | (50, 100) | 68 | 12.34 | ||
[60, 70) | 235 | 42.65 | 100 | 230 | 41.74 | ||
≥70 | 118 | 21.42 | 总种植面积/亩 | <10 | 107 | 19.42 | |
受教育程度 | 不识字 | 106 | 19.24 | [10, 20) | 178 | 32.31 | |
小学 | 209 | 37.93 | [20, 30) | 117 | 21.23 | ||
初中 | 188 | 34.12 | [30, 50) | 89 | 16.15 | ||
高中或中专 | 39 | 7.08 | ≥50 | 60 | 10.89 | ||
大专及以上 | 9 | 1.63 | 作物多样性 | 0.0 | 42 | 7.62 | |
家庭人口/人 | ≤2 | 317 | 57.53 | (0.0~1.0) | 72 | 13.07 | |
[ | 182 | 33.03 | [1.0, 1.5) | 138 | 25.05 | ||
≥5 | 52 | 9.44 | [1.5, 2.0) | 203 | 36.84 | ||
抚养比/% | 0 | 368 | 66.79 | ≥2.0 | 96 | 17.42 | |
(0, 50) | 67 | 12.16 |
表4
目标一致性指数的独立样本Kruskal-Wallis检验和线性回归
一致性指数 | 年龄 | 受教育水平 | 家庭人口 | 抚养比 | 农业劳动人口 | 总种植面积 | 作物多样性 | R2 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D1 | K-W检验p | 0.642 | 0.702 | 0.954 | 0.869 | 0.883 | 0.238 | 0.003** | - |
回归系数 | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.095** | 0.513 | |
D2 | K-W检验p | 0.147 | 0.476 | 0.218 | 0.090 | 0.775 | 0.004** | 0.428 | - |
回归系数 | - | - | - | - | - | -0.003** | -0.131** | 0.324 | |
D3 | K-W检验p | 0.342 | 0.903 | 0.223 | 0.110 | 0.763 | 0.944 | 0.003** | - |
回归系数 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.122** | 0.314 | |
D4 | K-W检验p | 0.695 | 0.733 | 0.791 | 0.871 | 0.389 | 0.027* | 0.000** | - |
回归系数 | - | - | - | - | - | -0.001** | 0.059** | 0.138 |
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