农村劳动力老龄化及其家庭结构差异对农地转出决策的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.09.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农地规模经营是实现现代农业的主要路径之一,探究劳动力老龄化与家庭农地转出决策,对促进小农户与现代农业的有机衔接有着重要意义。基于改进的家庭生命周期模型和中国家庭金融调查数据,从家庭层面实证检验了家庭劳动力老龄化对农地流转的影响及其家庭结构的异质性。结果发现：①中国现在还存有近1/3的农村家庭有老年人参与劳动,随着老龄化人口占比越来越高,以老年人为农业生产主体的小农户未来也可能长期存在;②劳动力老龄化对农地转出决策具有抑制作用。相比其他家庭类型,有老年劳动力的家庭转出农地的可能性降低了约5%;③不同家庭内部结构下,劳动力老龄化对家庭农地转出决策的抑制作用存在差异,抑制作用大小表现为负担期Ⅰ>赡养期Ⅰ>空巢期Ⅰ。本文认为,对于高龄的老年劳动力,需进一步建立健全农村社会保障制度,促进这部分农户通过以转代耕的方式把农地转出至农业生产效率更高的经营主体;对于低龄的老年劳动力,需配合较为完善的农业社会化服务以实现提升农业生产效率与农地养老的双重目标。

关键词: 老龄化, 家庭生命周期, 农地流转, 劳动供给, 劳动消费比, CMP方法

Abstract:

Large-scale operation of farming is one of the main paths to modern agriculture, and exploring the impact of aging rural labor force on the decision of transferring out family farmland has important implications for promoting the connection between smallholder farmers and modern agriculture. Based on the improved household life cycle model and data from the China Household Finance Survey, the impact of household labor force aging on farmland transfer and the difference of impact due to heterogeneity of household structure were empirically tested at the household level. The results find that: (1) nearly one-third of rural households in China still have elderly people involved in agricultural work, and with the increasing proportion of the aging population, small farmers with elderly people as the mainstay of agricultural production may also exist in the long run in the future. (2) The aging of the labor force is a disincentive for transferring out farmland. Compared with other household types, households with an older laborer are about 5% less likely to transfer out farmland. (3) The inhibitory effect of labor force aging on household farmland transfer differs under different household structures, and the magnitude of the inhibitory effect is raising family period Ⅰ> supporting family period Ⅰ> empty nest period Ⅰ. This article argues that for the older elderly labor force, it is necessary to further establish a sound rural social security system to promote this group of farmers to transfer their farmland to more productive operators instead of farming by themselves; for the younger elderly labor force, it is necessary to cooperate with more complete agricultural socialization services to achieve the dual goals of improving agricultural productivity and supporting elderly livehoods with farmland.

Key words: aging, household life cycle, farmland transfer, labor supply, labor-consumption ratio, CMP approach

王杰, 蔡志坚, 秦希. 农村劳动力老龄化及其家庭结构差异对农地转出决策的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(9): 1876-1888.

WANG Jie, CAI Zhijian, QIN Xi. Impact of aging rural labor force and household structure on the decision to transfer farmland[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(9): 1876-1888.

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家庭生命周期阶段	家庭人口特征
起步期	年轻夫妇,无子女
抚养期	最小的子女未满16岁或无工作的学生,无≥60岁老人
负担期Ⅰ	最小的子女未满16岁或无工作的学生,有≥60岁老人且参与劳动
负担期Ⅱ	最小的子女未满16岁或无工作的学生,有≥60岁老人且不劳动
稳定期	子女都有工作,无≥60岁老人
赡养期Ⅰ	子女都有工作,有≥60岁老人且参与劳动
赡养期Ⅱ	子女都有工作,有≥60岁老人且不劳动
空巢期Ⅰ	家庭成员都是≥60岁老人且参与劳动
空巢期Ⅱ	家庭成员都是≥60岁老人且不劳动

生命周期阶段	样本家庭/户	样本占比/%	转出家庭/户	转出占比/%	劳动消费比
负担期Ⅰ	1119	12.2	106	9.5	0.635
赡养期Ⅰ	716	7.8	89	12.4	0.888
空巢期Ⅰ	767	8.3	106	13.8	0.851
小计	2602	28.3	301	11.6	0.769
其他阶段Ⅰ	2328	25.3	432	18.6
其他阶段Ⅱ	4258	46.3	493	11.6
其他阶段	6586	71.7	925	14.0
总计	9188	100.0	1226	13.3

变量名称	变量含义及赋值	均值	标准差
有无农地转出	1=有;0=无	0.133	0.340
农地转出规模	转出农地数量,单位：亩	0.781	10.900
劳动力老龄化	1=有老年劳动力;0=没有老年劳动力	0.283	0.451
户主年龄	单位：岁	55.230	11.840
户主年龄平方	户主年龄平方	3191	1328
户主受教育程度	共分9个等级,1=没上过学,2=小学,3=初中,4=高中,5=中专/职高,6=大专/高职,7=大学本科,8=硕士研究生,9=博士研究生	2.498	0.937
户主性别	男=1;女=0	0.897	0.304
家庭劳动力禀赋	实际参与劳动的家庭成员数量,单位：人	2.625	1.433
家庭规模	家庭成员数量,单位：人	4.203	1.903
家庭农地禀赋	承包地面积,单位：亩	7.998	15.220
家庭平均受教育程度	共分9个等级,1=没上过学,2=小学,3=初中,4=高中,5=中专/职高,6=大专/高职,7=大学本科,8=硕士研究生,9=博士研究生	2.551	1.122
亲戚数量	在本村或城市的有血缘关系亲戚数量,单位：人	2.710	1.112
人情支出	人情礼金支出,单位：元/年,取对数	5.383	3.606
家庭总收入	单位：元/年,取对数	7.880	4.053
养老或失业保险情况	家庭成员是否有养老或失业保险,1=是;2=否	0.813	0.390
中部	1=是;0=否	0.359	0.480
西部	1=是;0=否	0.305	0.460
其他	对照组,1=是;0=否	0.337	0.473

	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）	（6）
劳动力老龄化	-0.0507*** (0.0085)	-0.0325*** (0.0089)	-0.0623*** (0.0102)	-0.0381*** (0.0124)	-0.0178* (0.0108)	-0.0048 (0.0111)
户主年龄	-0.0081*** (0.0020)	-0.0051** (0.0021)	-0.0105*** (0.0031)	-0.0092*** (0.0031)	-0.0025 (0.0027)	-0.0030 (0.0027)
户主年龄平方	0.0001*** (0.00002)	0.0001*** (0.00002)	0.0001*** (0.0003)	0.0001*** (0.00003)	0.00004 (0.00003)	0.00004* (0.00003)
户主受教育程度	0.0132*** (0.0039)	0.0132*** (0.0045)	0.0115** (0.0056)	0.0152** (0.0063)	0.0157*** (0.0042)	0.0015 (0.0055)
户主性别	-0.0270** (0.0113)	-0.0207* (0.0113)	-0.0270* (0.0150)	-0.0180 (0.0151)	-0.0266** (0.0132)	-0.0172 (0.0133)
家庭劳动力禀赋		-0.0231*** (0.0041)		-0.0217*** (0.0064)		-0.0227*** (0.0046)
家庭规模		0.0012 (0.0026)		0.0001 (0.0041)		0.0048 (0.0032)
家庭农地禀赋		-0.0014*** (0.0004)		-0.0009 (0.0005)		-0.0013*** (0.0004)
家庭平均受教育程度		-0.0026 (0.0042)		-0.0133** (0.0058)		0.0211*** (0.0056)
亲戚数量		0.0010 (0.0032)		-0.0059 (0.0045)		0.0043 (0.0036)
人情支出		0.0063*** (0.0011)		0.0064*** (0.0014)		0.0061*** (0.0012)
家庭总收入		-0.0009 (0.0009)		-0.0020 (0.0013)		0.0008 (0.0011)
养老或失业保险情况		0.0018 (0.0089)		-0.0064 (0.0130)		0.0036 (0.0098)
中部		-0.0082 (0.0085)		0.0211* (0.0120)		-0.0241** (0.0095)
西部		-0.0168* (0.0088)		-0.0026 (0.0126)		-0.0121 (0.0096)
VIF	1.62	1.40	1.11	1.49	1.06	1.42
卡方值	166.84***	274.43***	147.40***	219.54***	23.52***	112.58***
Pseudo R²	0.0245	0.0436	0.0377	0.0618	0.0050	0.0246
观测值	9188	9188	4930	4930	6860	6860

变量名称	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）	（6）
劳动力老龄化	-0.3185*** (0.0239)	-0.2708*** (0.0286)	-0.2813*** (0.0213)	-0.2348*** (0.0288)	-0.2013*** (0.0463)	-0.1734*** (0.0478)
工具变量	0.1043*** (0.0047)	0.1052*** (0.0047)	0.1615*** (0.0052)	0.1623*** (0.0052)	0.1019*** (0.0067)	0.1018*** (0.0067)
Aatanhrho_12	0.9063*** (0.0976)	0.7826*** (0.1036)	0.7668*** (0.0820)	0.6437*** (0.0946)	0.5831*** (0.1432)	0.5482*** (0.1499)
户主控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是
家庭控制变量		是		是		是
地区控制变量		是		是		是
卡方值	745.04***	851.76***	920.85***	977.36***	261.05***	354.21***
观测值	9188	9188	4930	4930	6860	6860