资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (9): 1764-1777.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.09.05
收稿日期:
2020-10-09
修回日期:
2021-01-17
出版日期:
2021-09-25
发布日期:
2021-11-25
通讯作者:
朱雨可,女,四川乐山人,副教授,研究方向为气候变化、消费与可持续发展。E-mail: zhuyuke@swufe.edu.cn作者简介:
赵佳,女,重庆大足人,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向为消费与环境。E-mail: zhaojia_monica@163.com
基金资助:
Received:
2020-10-09
Revised:
2021-01-17
Online:
2021-09-25
Published:
2021-11-25
摘要:
居民消费结构和投资结构良性互动是畅通国民经济循环、实现经济高质量发展和生态环境高水平保护的重要路径。本文基于投资视角,从理论角度阐释居民消费结构变动对环境效率的影响机制,并利用2003—2017年中国省际面板数据,使用系统GMM模型实证分析了居民消费结构升级如何通过投资结构变化影响环境效率。研究表明:①在影响机制上,受环境规制、投资回报、清洁技术等因素影响,居民消费结构变动伴生的消费偏好改变将引起投资结构变动,并进一步作用于环境效率;②居民消费结构从生存型向发展型升级不仅对环境效率会产生直接正向影响,还会通过投资结构变动间接影响环境效率,但间接影响效应的大小和方向取决于投资结构偏向;③居民消费结构升级有利于推动投资结构向第三产业优化,进而正向促进环境效率提高。但投资结构若偏向高污染行业,虽能提高产出水平,但环境效率反而会因环境污染出现下降。因此,加快消费结构绿色转型、引导投资向发展型消费倾斜、加大顺应消费结构升级的低排放、气候适应型投资是实现经济与环境可持续发展的可行选择。
赵佳, 朱雨可. 基于投资视角的居民消费结构变动对环境效率的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(9): 1764-1777.
ZHAO Jia, ZHU Yuke. Impact of consumption structure change on environmental efficiency from the perspective of investment[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(9): 1764-1777.
表1
变量选取及其描述性统计
变量名称 | 变量说明 | 均值 | 标准差 | 极小值 | 极大值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
被解释变量 | EE | 环境效率 | 1.043 | 0.376 | 0.503 | 2.363 |
核心解释变量 | sconsu | 生存型消费占比 | 0.709 | 0.027 | 0.624 | 0.799 |
xconsu | 享受型消费占比 | 0.168 | 0.019 | 0.120 | 0.208 | |
fconsu | 发展型消费占比 | 0.123 | 0.019 | 0.078 | 0.177 | |
ind-agr | 二产投资与一产投资之比 | 20.481 | 32.392 | 2.321 | 366.162 | |
ser-ind | 三产投资与二产投资之比 | 1.731 | 1.455 | 0.602 | 10.123 | |
IB | 投资结构偏向指数 | 3.951 | 1.615 | 1.345 | 9.584 | |
控制变量 | ER | 环境污染治理投资占GDP比重/% | 1.338 | 0.669 | 0.300 | 4.240 |
agdp | 人均GDP/万元 | 3.531 | 2.429 | 0.370 | 12.899 | |
techno | R&D投资占GDP比重/% | 0.310 | 0.255 | 0.034 | 1.431 | |
pop | 常住人口密度/(千人/km2) | 0.441 | 0.639 | 0.007 | 3.851 |
表2
消费结构对环境效率的直接影响
变量 | FE-IV | Sys-GMM | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型1 | 模型2 | 模型3 | 模型4 | 模型5 | 模型6 | ||
L.ln(EE) | 0.945*** (0.036) | 0.963*** (0.061) | 0.939*** (0.033) | ||||
ln(sconsu) | -0.820* (0.412) | -0.350** (0.174) | |||||
ln(xconsu) | 0.082 (0.218) | -0.039 (0.054) | |||||
ln(fconsu) | 0.194* (0.634) | 0.106** (0.0515) | |||||
ln(ER) | -0.074*** (0.020) | -0.072*** (0.020) | -0.073*** (0.019) | -0.028** (0.014) | -0.012 (0.016) | -0.026* (0.016) | |
ln(agdp) | 0.065*** (0.021) | 0.062*** (0.023) | 0.061*** (0.020) | 0.020** (0.010) | 0.023** (0.012) | 0.029*** (0.010) | |
ln(techno) | -0.007 (0.014) | -0.012 (0.016) | 0.002 (0.014) | 0.003 (0.006) | -0.005 (0.004) | 0.001 (0.006) | |
ln(pop) | -0.127 (0.217) | -0.265 (0.215) | -0.193 (0.202) | -0.007 (0.005) | -0.005 (0.005) | -0.011 (0.029) | |
第一阶段回归F值 | 55.950*** | 54.960*** | 101.560*** | ||||
Hansen检验 | 0.119 | 0.538 | 0.102 | 0.996 | 0.994 | 1.000 | |
AR(1) | 0.058 | 0.063 | 0.058 | ||||
AR(2) | 0.200 | 0.192 | 0.197 | ||||
样本量 | 390 | 390 | 390 | 420 | 420 | 420 |
表3
消费结构对环境效率的间接影响(不含环境强度的投资结构)
变量 | 模型1 | 模型2 | 模型3 | 模型4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
L.ln(EE) | 0.653***(0.134) | 0.988***(0.044) | 0.930***(0.061) | 0.919***(0.049) |
ln(sconsu) | -2.379*(1.270) | |||
ln(xconsu) | 0.636***(0.228) | |||
ln(fconsu) | 0.074(0.239) | |||
ln(ind-agr) | 0.035*(0.020) | 0.268*(0.143) | -0.379***(0.143) | -0.016(0.165) |
ln(ser-indr) | 0.058*(0.032) | 0.109(0.088) | -0.132(0.125) | -0.061*(0.034) |
ln(sconsu)×ln(ind-agr) | 0.751*(0.403) | |||
ln(sconsu)×ln(ser-indr) | 0.261(0.234) | |||
ln(xconsu)×ln(ind-agr) | -0.218***(0.080) | |||
ln(xconsu)×ln(ser-indr) | -0.088(0.065) | |||
ln(fconsu)×ln(ind-agr) | -0.011(0.083) | |||
ln(fconsu)×ln(ser-indr) | 0.040**(0.020) | |||
Hansen检验 | 0.386 | 0.911 | 0.860 | 1.000 |
AR(1) | 0.071 | 0.065 | 0.070 | 0.059 |
AR(2) | 0.181 | 0.217 | 0.181 | 0.192 |
控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
样本量 | 420 | 420 | 420 | 420 |
表4
消费结构对环境效率的间接影响(包含环境强度的投资结构)
变量 | 模型1 | 模型2 | 模型3 | 模型4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
L.ln(EE) | 0.892***(0.063) | 0.981***(0.041) | 0.977***(0.035) | 0.971***(0.036) |
ln(sconsu) | -1.146*(0.611) | |||
ln(xconsu) | 0.797**(0.380) | |||
ln(fconsu) | 0.292**(0.105) | |||
ln(IB) | -0.007(0.019) | 0.274**(0.125) | -1.097**(0.524) | -0.417***(0.162) |
ln(sconsu)×ln(IB) | 0.791**(0.398) | |||
ln(xconsu)×ln(IB) | -0.602**(0.289) | |||
ln(fconsu)×ln(IB) | -0.187**(0.075) | |||
Hansen检验 | 0.386 | 0.938 | 0.998 | 1.000 |
AR(1) | 0.063 | 0.060 | 0.053 | 0.060 |
AR(2) | 0.197 | 0.239 | 0.272 | 0.213 |
控制变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
样本量 | 420 | 420 | 420 | 420 |
表5
稳健性检验结果
变量 | 增加控制变量 | 消费升级指数 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型1 | 模型2 | 模型3 | 模型4 | 模型5 | 模型6 | ||
L.ln(EE) | 0.908***(0.064) | 0.921***(0.069) | 0.874***(0.054) | 0.954***(0.056) | 0.906***(0.074) | 0.905***(0.070) | |
ln(sconsu) | -0.437*(0.255) | ||||||
ln(xconsu) | 0.031(0.197) | ||||||
ln(fconsu) | 0.136*(0.071) | ||||||
ln(index) | 0.157**(0.074) | 0.139(0.603) | 0.775***(0.287) | ||||
ln(ind-agr) | -0.022(0.041) | ||||||
ln(ser-indr) | -0.009(0.018) | ||||||
ln(IB) | -0.129***(0.047) | ||||||
ln(index)×ln(ind-agr) | 0.046(0.174) | ||||||
ln(index)×ln(ser-indr) | 0.208**(0.102) | ||||||
ln(index)×ln(IB) | -0.790***(0.241) | ||||||
ln(ER) | -0.020(0.017) | -0.014(0.017) | -0.020(0.013) | -0.011(0.013) | -0.007(0.015) | -0.017(0.010) | |
ln(agdp) | 0.073**(0.033) | 0.062*(0.035) | 0.061***(0.026) | 0.034***(0.013) | 0.029**(0.014) | 0.013(0.018) | |
ln(techno) | -0.002(0.006) | -0.005(0.005) | 0.001(0.007) | -0.002(0.004) | -0.009*(0.005) | -0.003(0.008) | |
ln(pop) | -0.004(0.007) | -0.001(0.006) | -0.009(0.010) | -0.008(0.007) | -0.013(0.010) | 0.013(0.018) | |
ln(edu) | -0.178*(0.097) | -0.141*(0.75) | -0.143(0.107) | ||||
ln(fdi) | 0.007(0.005) | 0.008(0.006) | 0.009(0.101) | ||||
ln(retail) | -0.018*(0.010) | -0.016(0.011) | -0.021**(0.009) | ||||
Hansen检验 | 0.942 | 0.871 | 0.998 | 0.998 | 0.923 | 0.954 | |
AR(1) | 0.059 | 0.062 | 0.053 | 0.060 | 0.062 | 0.046 | |
AR(2) | 0.217 | 0.206 | 0.272 | 0.206 | 0.177 | 0.117 | |
样本量 | 420 | 420 | 420 | 420 | 420 | 420 |
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