基于灰色模型的可再生能源电价补贴收支平衡

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.09.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

庞大的电价累计补贴缺口对可再生能源行业和财政支出造成巨大压力,研究中国可再生能源电价补贴收支平衡问题对其可持续发展具有重要现实意义。在电价补贴退出背景下,本文以风电、光伏发电、生物质能发电3类可再生能源为研究对象,利用灰色模型GM(1, 1)预测第二、三产业用电量和城乡居民用电量,核算可再生能源电价理论补贴和可再生能源电价附加收入,分析电价补贴收支平衡情况。结果表明：①2025年可完成电价累计补贴缺口的偿还,可再生能源电价补贴达到收支平衡,并有253.47亿元的补贴盈余,之后电价补贴盈余不断增大;②从2026年开始逐步下调电价附加征收标准,2026—2030年可每年下调电价附加征收标准0.002元/kW·h,2031—2038年每年下调电价附加征收标准0.001元/kW·h,直至2039年取消电价附加征收;③中国可再生能源电价附加收入漏出严重,征收率低,应尽快提升征收率直至足额征收,促进电价补贴提前实现收支平衡。最后,从调整电价附加征收标准、提高电价附加收入征收率、募集补贴资金等方面提出促进可再生能源行业高质量发展的对策建议。

关键词: 可再生能源, 电价补贴, 电价附加收入, 补贴收支平衡, 灰色模型

Abstract:

The huge accumulative gap of electricity price subsidy has caused great pressure on the renewable energy industry and fiscal expenditure. Therefore, there is great practical significance to analyze the revenue and expenditure balance of China’s renewable energy price subsidy for its sustainability. Under the background of price subsidy withdrawal, the grey model GM (1,1) was used to predict the electricity consumption of the secondary and tertiary industries and the urban and rural residents. This study calculated the theoretical subsidy of renewable energy electricity price and its additional tariff income, and analyzed the balance of electricity price subsidy. The results show that: (1) The accumulative gap of electricity price subsidy will be closed in 2025. In this year, the renewable energy price subsidy will reach a balance of income and expenditure, and there will be a subsidy surplus of 25.347 billion yuan, after which the surplus of the subsidy will increase continuously. (2) The additional tariff standard of electricity price can be lowered gradually from 2026. It will be reduced by 0.002 yuan per kilowatt-hour annually from 2026 to 2030, and 0.001 yuan per kilowatt-hour annually from 2031 to 2038, until it will be abolished in 2039. (3) The leakage of China’s renewable energy electricity price additional tariff income is serious, the levying rate is low, and we should increase the levying rate until the full amount of collection to promote an earlier attainment of electricity price subsidy income and expenditure balance. Finally, suggestions were put forward to promote the high quality development of renewable energy industry from the aspects of adjusting additional tariff standard for electricity price, increasing the levying rate of additional tariff income, raising subsidy funds, and so on.

Key words: renewable energy, electricity price subsidy, the additional tariff income of electricity price, revenue and expenditure balance of subsidies, grey model

王风云, 丛龙园. 基于灰色模型的可再生能源电价补贴收支平衡[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(9): 1743-1751.

WANG Fengyun, CONG Longyuan. Revenue and expenditure balance of renewable energy electricity price subsidies based on grey model[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(9): 1743-1751.

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年份	第二产业用电量			第三产业用电量			城乡居民用电量
年份	原始数据	预测值	相对误差/%	原始数据	预测值	相对误差/%	原始数据	预测值	相对误差/%
2016	42108	42108	0.00	7961	7961	0.00	8054	8054	0.00
2017	44413	44737	0.73	8814	9364	6.24	8695	8827	1.52
2018	47235	46875	-0.76	10801	10313	-4.52	9685	9501	-1.90
2019	49362	49115	-0.50	11863	11359	-4.25	10250	10226	-0.23
2020	51215	51462	0.48	12087	12510	3.50	10949	11006	0.52

模型精确度等级	均方差比值C	小误差概率P
1级（好）	C≤0.35	>0.95
2级（合格）	0.35<C≤0.50	>0.80
3级（勉强）	0.50<C≤0.65	>0.70
4级（不合格）	0.65<C	≤0.70

检验指标	第二产业用电量	第三产业用电量	城乡居民用电量
后验差比C	0.08	0.27	0.10
小误差概率P	1.00	1.00	1.00
平均级比偏差绝对值/%	0.01	0.05	0.02

年度	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
理论征收额	1246	1320	1398	1481	1570	1666	1768	1877	1993	2118
实际征收额	954	1011	1071	1135	1203	1276	1354	1437	1527	1622