资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (9): 1743-1751.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.09.03
收稿日期:
2020-11-04
修回日期:
2021-05-10
出版日期:
2021-09-25
发布日期:
2021-11-25
作者简介:
王风云,女,福建福清人,教授,研究方向为能源经济管理、清洁能源协同发展。E-mail: wangfengyun@bipt.edu.cn
基金资助:
Received:
2020-11-04
Revised:
2021-05-10
Online:
2021-09-25
Published:
2021-11-25
摘要:
庞大的电价累计补贴缺口对可再生能源行业和财政支出造成巨大压力,研究中国可再生能源电价补贴收支平衡问题对其可持续发展具有重要现实意义。在电价补贴退出背景下,本文以风电、光伏发电、生物质能发电3类可再生能源为研究对象,利用灰色模型GM(1, 1)预测第二、三产业用电量和城乡居民用电量,核算可再生能源电价理论补贴和可再生能源电价附加收入,分析电价补贴收支平衡情况。结果表明:①2025年可完成电价累计补贴缺口的偿还,可再生能源电价补贴达到收支平衡,并有253.47亿元的补贴盈余,之后电价补贴盈余不断增大;②从2026年开始逐步下调电价附加征收标准,2026—2030年可每年下调电价附加征收标准0.002元/kW·h,2031—2038年每年下调电价附加征收标准0.001元/kW·h,直至2039年取消电价附加征收;③中国可再生能源电价附加收入漏出严重,征收率低,应尽快提升征收率直至足额征收,促进电价补贴提前实现收支平衡。最后,从调整电价附加征收标准、提高电价附加收入征收率、募集补贴资金等方面提出促进可再生能源行业高质量发展的对策建议。
王风云, 丛龙园. 基于灰色模型的可再生能源电价补贴收支平衡[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(9): 1743-1751.
WANG Fengyun, CONG Longyuan. Revenue and expenditure balance of renewable energy electricity price subsidies based on grey model[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(9): 1743-1751.
表1
社会用电量残差检验结果 (亿kW·h)
年份 | 第二产业用电量 | 第三产业用电量 | 城乡居民用电量 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
原始数据 | 预测值 | 相对误差/% | 原始数据 | 预测值 | 相对误差/% | 原始数据 | 预测值 | 相对误差/% | |||
2016 | 42108 | 42108 | 0.00 | 7961 | 7961 | 0.00 | 8054 | 8054 | 0.00 | ||
2017 | 44413 | 44737 | 0.73 | 8814 | 9364 | 6.24 | 8695 | 8827 | 1.52 | ||
2018 | 47235 | 46875 | -0.76 | 10801 | 10313 | -4.52 | 9685 | 9501 | -1.90 | ||
2019 | 49362 | 49115 | -0.50 | 11863 | 11359 | -4.25 | 10250 | 10226 | -0.23 | ||
2020 | 51215 | 51462 | 0.48 | 12087 | 12510 | 3.50 | 10949 | 11006 | 0.52 |
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