资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 1662-1674.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.08.13
收稿日期:
2020-09-10
修回日期:
2021-02-09
出版日期:
2021-08-25
发布日期:
2021-10-25
通讯作者:
李晓云,女,福建邵武人,教授,研究方向为粮食与营养安全、农业资源与环境。E-mail: lixiaoyun@mail.hzau.edu.cn作者简介:
江文曲,女,安徽潜山人,硕士研究生,研究方向为食物消费与营养。E-mail: jiangwq@webmail.hzau.edu.cn
基金资助:
JIANG Wenqu(), LI Xiaoyun(
), LIU Chujie, SUN Qian
Received:
2020-09-10
Revised:
2021-02-09
Online:
2021-08-25
Published:
2021-10-25
摘要:
随着收入的持续增长和城镇化的快速推进,中国居民的膳食结构不断发生变化,整体向增加高耗水的动物性食物消费趋势转变,不断加剧中国本已稀缺的水资源的压力。本文基于水足迹理论,利用城乡居民人均食物消费量和单位重量食物虚拟水含量数据,首先测算了城乡居民实际食物消费模式(S1)与膳食指南推荐的平衡膳食模式(S2)下的食物消费水足迹,比较分析两种膳食结构水足迹的构成和变化特征;然后基于两种膳食模式(S1、S2)和两种人口规模(2018年、2030年)构建了4种情境,估算未来人口规模和膳食结构变化下的城乡居民食物消费水足迹。结果表明:①1985—2018年,中国城乡居民人均食物消费水足迹均呈上升趋势,具体表现为人均植物性食物耗水量的减少和动物性食物耗水量的增加;②人口规模和膳食结构是食物消费水足迹变化的主要驱动因素,实现平衡膳食模式的膳食结构对食物消费水足迹变化的作用超过人口规模;③营养均衡目标下膳食结构变化将导致城镇居民食物消费水足迹增加1094.9亿m3,农村居民食物消费水足迹增加907.1亿m3;人口规模变化将导致城镇居民食物消费水足迹增加929.4亿m3,农村居民食物消费水足迹减少615.4亿m3,两个因素的共同作用将导致城镇居民食物消费水足迹总量增加2024.3亿m3,农村居民食物消费水足迹总量增加291.7亿m3,食物生产水资源的短缺局面进一步加剧。本文为未来通过调整食物消费结构途径降低食物生产水资源消耗提供了初步的研究视角,同时对引导中国城乡居民均衡营养饮食具有重要意义。
江文曲, 李晓云, 刘楚杰, 孙倩. 城乡居民膳食结构变化对中国水资源需求的影响——基于营养均衡的视角[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(8): 1662-1674.
JIANG Wenqu, LI Xiaoyun, LIU Chujie, SUN Qian. Impact of residents’ diet changes on water resource demand in China: From the perspective of nutritional balance[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(8): 1662-1674.
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