城乡居民膳食结构变化对中国水资源需求的影响——基于营养均衡的视角

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.08.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着收入的持续增长和城镇化的快速推进,中国居民的膳食结构不断发生变化,整体向增加高耗水的动物性食物消费趋势转变,不断加剧中国本已稀缺的水资源的压力。本文基于水足迹理论,利用城乡居民人均食物消费量和单位重量食物虚拟水含量数据,首先测算了城乡居民实际食物消费模式（S1）与膳食指南推荐的平衡膳食模式（S2）下的食物消费水足迹,比较分析两种膳食结构水足迹的构成和变化特征;然后基于两种膳食模式（S1、S2）和两种人口规模（2018年、2030年）构建了4种情境,估算未来人口规模和膳食结构变化下的城乡居民食物消费水足迹。结果表明：①1985—2018年,中国城乡居民人均食物消费水足迹均呈上升趋势,具体表现为人均植物性食物耗水量的减少和动物性食物耗水量的增加;②人口规模和膳食结构是食物消费水足迹变化的主要驱动因素,实现平衡膳食模式的膳食结构对食物消费水足迹变化的作用超过人口规模;③营养均衡目标下膳食结构变化将导致城镇居民食物消费水足迹增加1094.9亿m³,农村居民食物消费水足迹增加907.1亿m³;人口规模变化将导致城镇居民食物消费水足迹增加929.4亿m³,农村居民食物消费水足迹减少615.4亿m³,两个因素的共同作用将导致城镇居民食物消费水足迹总量增加2024.3亿m³,农村居民食物消费水足迹总量增加291.7亿m³,食物生产水资源的短缺局面进一步加剧。本文为未来通过调整食物消费结构途径降低食物生产水资源消耗提供了初步的研究视角,同时对引导中国城乡居民均衡营养饮食具有重要意义。

关键词: 膳食结构, 食物消费, 均衡营养, 人口规模, 水足迹, 结构分解法, 中国

Abstract:

With the continuous growth of income and the rapid advancement of urbanization, the dietary structure of Chinese residents is constantly changing, and the overall trend of increasing consumption of animal foods with higher water consumption to produce has presented a huge challenge to water resources supply in China. Based on the water footprint theory and the data of urban and rural food consumption from 1985 to 2018 and virtual water content of foods in China, this study first calculated and compared the water footprints for different cases, the actual food consumption patterns of urban and rural residents (S1) and the balanced dietary patterns recommended by Chinese resident dietary guidelines (S2). Then we projected the water footprint of food consumption under four scenarios, including two dietary structures (S1,S2) and two population sizes (2018, 2030). The results show that: (1) Per capita urban and rural water footprints of food consumption from 1985 to 2018 in China presented an upward trend with decreasing per capita water consumption of plant foods and increasing per capita water consumption of animal foods; (2) Population size and dietary structure are the main driving factors for food consumption water footprint, with the effects of dietary structure exceeding the effects of population size under the S2 scenario; (3) The change in dietary structure under the nutrition balanced goal will increase the water footprint of urban resident food consumption by 109.49 billion m³ and the water footprint of rural resident food consumption by 90.71 billion m³, and the change of population size will increase the urban resident water footprint of food consumption by 92.94 billion m³ and decrease the rural resident water footprint of food consumption by 61.54 billion m³. The combined effect of the two factors will increase the total water footprint of urban residents’ food consumption by 202.43 billion m³, and the total water footprint of rural residents’ food consumption by 29.17 billion m³, and impose more pressure on the water resources in China. This article provides a new perspective for reducing water use in food production by adjusting dietary structure in the future, and has significance implications for guiding urban and rural residents to a balanced and nutritional diet.

Key words: dietary structure, food consumption, nutritional balance, population size, water footprint, structural decomposition analysis, China

江文曲, 李晓云, 刘楚杰, 孙倩. 城乡居民膳食结构变化对中国水资源需求的影响——基于营养均衡的视角[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(8): 1662-1674.

JIANG Wenqu, LI Xiaoyun, LIU Chujie, SUN Qian. Impact of residents’ diet changes on water resource demand in China: From the perspective of nutritional balance[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(8): 1662-1674.

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食物类别	单位质量食物虚拟水含量/（m³/kg）
粮食	1.10
鲜菜	0.32
鲜瓜果	0.97
食用植物油	2.36
猪肉	6.10
牛羊肉	10.90
禽肉	3.97
鲜蛋	3.09
鲜奶	1.28

食物类别	下限	上限	平均值
谷薯类	91.3	146.0	118.7
蔬菜	109.5	182.5	146.0
水果	73.0	127.8	100.4
畜禽肉	14.6	27.4	21.0
蛋类	14.6	18.3	16.5
奶类	109.5	109.5	109.5
油	9.1	11.0	10.1

	粮食	蔬菜	水果	食用油	畜禽肉	蛋类	奶类	总和
水足迹上下限	100.3~160.5	35.3~58.8	70.6~123.6	21.5~26.0	92.3~173.3	45.2~56.6	140.4	505.6~739.1
水足迹平均值	130.5	47.1	97.1	23.8	132.8	50.9	140.4	622.4

	粮食	鲜菜	鲜瓜果	食用植物油	畜禽肉	鲜蛋	鲜奶
城镇	84.0	92.1	63.3	6.3	13.2	10.4	69.0
农村	81.4	89.2	61.3	6.1	12.8	10.0	66.9

	2018年（城镇）	2030年（城镇）	2018年（农村）	2030年（农村）
S1	4208.0	5137.4	2690.4	2075.0
S2	5302.9	6474.1	3597.5	2774.6
人口规模的作用		929.4		-615.4
膳食结构的作用	1094.9		907.1