农户兼业对粮食生产效率的非线性影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.08.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农业生产的季节性特征使得农户兼业已经成为我国农民分化的重要趋势。本文基于长江流域湖北、江西和浙江3省822份水稻种植户调查数据,利用IV-Tobit和门槛效应模型论证了农户兼业对粮食生产效率的非线性影响,并从时间、资金与技术要素投入解析其作用机理。研究表明：①农户兼业对粮食生产效率具有非线性影响,农户兼业时长超过8.35个月时,兼业行为对粮食生产效率的影响方向会发生改变;②短期兼业与县域范围内近距离兼业将有助于粮食生产效率提升;③农户兼业行为主要通过增加农业生产资金与技术投入来提升粮食生产效率。因此,在客观认识和接受农户“农忙务农、农闲务工”兼业身份的同时,不仅要鼓励发展县域经济,实现农民就近转移就业,还要积极培育农业社会化服务组织,引导长时间兼业农户退出农业生产。研究结论可为充分客观地评价现阶段我国粮食生产中的农户兼业行为提供一定的理论和实证依据。

关键词: 粮食安全, 农户兼业, 外出务工, 粮食生产效率, 非线性影响, 门槛回归, 长江流域

Abstract:

Due to the seasonal characteristics of agricultural production, it has become an important trend for agricultural producers to engage in both agricultural and non-agricultural activities. Based on the sample data of 822 rice growers from Hubei, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang provinces in the Yangtze River Basin, this study empirically analyzed the nonlinear effects of off-farm employment on grain production efficiency by using the IV-Tobit and threshold effect models. The mechanism of impact was analyzed from labor time, capital, and technology input. The results show that some off-farm employment of farmers will not affect the normal production of agriculture, but is conducive to the improvement of grain production efficiency. Specifically, first of all, the part-time employment of farmers has a nonlinear impact on grain production efficiency, and the duration of off-farm employment should not exceed 8.35 months. Second, the short-term and short-distance off-farm employment will help to improve the efficiency. Third, farmers’ off-farm employment improves grain production efficiency mainly through the intermediary path of increasing agricultural production capital and technology input. Therefore, on the basis of understanding and accepting farmers’ off-farm employment as their new identity, we should not only encourage the development of county economy and realize the localized transfer and employment of farmers, but also actively cultivate and develop agricultural service organizations to guide farmers who engage in long-term off-farm employment to withdraw from agricultural production. The conclusions provides a certain theoretical and empirical basis for fully and objectively evaluating the off-farm employment of farmers in the process of grain production in China.

Key words: food security, farmers’, off-farm employment, migrant work, grain production efficiency, nonlinear effect, threshold regression, Yangtze River Basin

黄炎忠, 罗小锋, 李兆亮, 刘迪. 农户兼业对粮食生产效率的非线性影响[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(8): 1605-1614.

HUANG Yanzhong, LUO Xiaofeng, LI Zhaoliang, LIU Di. Nonlinear effect of farmers’ off-farm employment on grain production efficiency[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(8): 1605-1614.

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变量	定义与赋值	均值	标准差
粮食生产效率	基于DEA测算得到的技术效率数值	0.732	0.205
户主兼业行为	2018年户主是否存在兼业行为：否=0,是=1	0.315	0.130
户主年龄	户主年龄/岁	50.293	9.600
户主受教育程度	户主受教育年限/年	7.172	3.440
户主健康状况	户主身体健康状况：非常差=1,比较差=2,一般=3,比较好=4,非常好=5	3.927	0.921
家庭总收入	2018年家庭总收入/万元	11.891	4.626
家庭农业劳动力	家庭从事农业生产的劳动力人数	1.925	0.696
家庭农业收入占比	2018年农业收入占家庭总收入比重	0.544	0.213
耕地质量	水稻种植地块土地质量：非常差=1,比较差=2,一般=3,比较好=4,非常好=5	3.364	1.007
灌溉条件	水稻种植地块是否方便灌溉：否=0,是=1	0.709	0.251
地块距离	水稻种植地块离家庭住址的平均距离/km	0.884	0.339
合作组织	家庭是否加入农民专业合作组织：否=0,是=1	0.347	0.476
地形特征	所在村域的地形：山地=1,丘陵=2,平原=3	2.371	0.655
地理区域	所处的样本省份：湖北=1,浙江=2,江西=3	1.892	1.427
水稻类别	种植的水稻类型：早稻=1,中稻=2,晚稻=3,再生稻=4	2.340	1.801
村域兼业环境	同村域兼业农户样本数量与该村总样本量的比值	0.251	0.232

	类别	粮食生产效率均值	均值差异检验
户主兼业行为	有兼业	0.786	t=1.902**
户主兼业行为	无兼业	0.707	t=1.902**
兼业时长/月	< 4	0.771	F=1.865*
	[4, 8)	0.774
	≥ 8	0.693
兼业收入/万元	<1	0.734	F=1.266
	[1, 3)	0.717
	≥ 3	0.740
兼业地点	乡镇内	0.751	F=2.711***
	镇外县内	0.749
	县外市内	0.716
	市外省内	0.728
	省外	0.673

变量	Tobit估计	IV-Tobit估计
户主兼业行为	0.024*（0.013）	—	0.036**（0.015）
户主年龄	0.001（0.001）	-0.008***（0.002）	0.001（0.001）
户主受教育程度	0.003**（0.002）	0.018**（0.008）	0.003*（0.002）
户主健康状况	-0.004（0.007）	0.060*（0.380）	-0.006（0.007）
家庭总收入	0.001*（0.001）	-0.001（0.012）	0.001**（0.000）
家庭农业劳动力	0.019**（0.008）	0.012（0.023）	0.017**（0.007）
家庭农业收入占比	-0.001（0.001）	-0.025（0.601）	-0.001（0.005）
耕地质量	0.011（0.007）	-0.004（0.025）	0.013*（0.007）
灌溉条件	-0.019*（0.012）	0.020（0.017）	-0.021（0.014）
地块距离	-0.018***（0.006）	-0.027（0.435）	-0.020***（0.006）
合作组织	0.041**（0.020）	-0.033（0.041）	0.043*（0.026）
地形特征	0.025*（0.013）	-0.154（0.132）	0.026*（0.014）
地理区域	0.046（0.051）	0.782*（0.336）	0.544（0.368）
水稻类别	0.035*（0.017）	0.425（0.359）	0.201（0.194）
常数项	0.544***（0.065）	0.258*（0.157）	0.162（0.144）
村域兼业环境	—	0.018**（0.007）	—
样本量	822

变量	IV-Tobit估计	单一门槛估计	IV-Tobit估计
兼业时长（t）	0.017（0.020）	—	—
兼业时长（t ≤8.35）	—	0.214*（0.116）	—
兼业时长（t >8.35）	—	-0.181***（0.053）	—
兼业劳动力占家庭劳动力比重	—	—	0.137（0.205）
其他变量	控制	控制	控制
卡方检验	42.395***	46.311***	43.297***

变量	全样本	短时间兼业	长时间兼业	短时间兼业	长时间兼业
兼业收入	0.156**（0.071）	0.014***（0.003）	0.265（0.327）	—	—
兼业收入占家庭总收入比重	—	—	—	0.019**（0.008）	0.171（0.201）
其他变量	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
卡方检验	61.270***	59.382***	36.700**	42.106***	38.232***