资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 1549-1561.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.08.04
收稿日期:
2020-09-25
修回日期:
2021-03-25
出版日期:
2021-08-25
发布日期:
2021-10-25
通讯作者:
曹筱杨,女,安徽淮南人,硕士,主要从事土地资源管理等研究。E-mail: 68503657@qq.com作者简介:
张博胜,男,云南大理人,工程师,博士,主要从事山区开发与精准扶贫、区域经济与土地利用等研究。E-mail: 251808315@qq.com
ZHANG Bosheng1,3(), CAO Xiaoyang2(
)
Received:
2020-09-25
Revised:
2021-03-25
Online:
2021-08-25
Published:
2021-10-25
摘要:
精准扶贫是近年来中国典型的农村偏向性政策,对城乡收入差距的影响效应有待进一步检验。本文基于2010—2019年县域面板数据,以中国典型贫困地区——云南省为研究案例,利用倾向得分匹配-双重差分法(PSM-DID)研究了精准扶贫政策实施对国家级贫困县城乡收入差距的影响。结果表明:①精准扶贫政策有利于国家级贫困县农民增收,进而显著缩小了国家级贫困县城乡相对收入差距,但对城乡绝对收入差距作用不明显。其他条件不变的情况下,受到精准扶贫政策冲击后,国家级贫困县农民人均收入增长率比非贫困县平均上升0.1512,而城乡相对收入差距平均降低0.3668,但这种政策效应存在一定的波动性,政策累积效应不明显。②精准扶贫政策主要通过促进城镇化、增加资本投入、提高农业产出水平、以及产业结构非农化调整4个方面促进了国家级贫困县城乡收入差距的缩小。长远来看,在提高农业产出水平的同时,逐步推动产业非农化调整将给贫困地区农民增收带来持续累积效应,对改善贫困地区城乡收入分配产生积极影响。针对以上结论,进一步提出了相应的政策建议。
张博胜, 曹筱杨. 精准扶贫政策对国家级贫困县城乡收入差距的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(8): 1549-1561.
ZHANG Bosheng, CAO Xiaoyang. Impact of targeted poverty alleviation policy on the urban-rural income gap in national poverty-stricken counties[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(8): 1549-1561.
表2
匹配前后变量均值
变量类型 | 变量名称 | PSM匹配前样本均值 | PSM匹配后样本均值 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
贫困县 | 非贫困县 | 标准偏差 | 贫困县 | 非贫困县 | 标准偏差 | |||
被解释变量 | 城乡相对收入差距 | 3.44 | 2.83 | 0.43 | 3.15 | 2.85 | 0.21 | |
城乡绝对收入差距 | 1.53 | 1.71 | 0.12 | 1.71 | 1.66 | 0.04 | ||
控制变量 | 城镇化 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.06 | |
资本投入 | 1.01 | 0.93 | 0.06 | 1.13 | 0.91 | 0.15 | ||
产业非农化 | 1.56 | 3.47 | 1.36 | 2.06 | 3.02 | 0.68 | ||
农业产出/(万元/人) | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 1.02 | 0.90 | 0.09 | ||
地方财政政策 | 0.46 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.11 | ||
农村就业 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.02 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.01 | ||
样本数 | 860 | 330 | 355 | 271 |
表3
基准回归结果
变量 | 农民人均可 支配收入 | 相对收入差距 | 绝对收入差距 | 农民人均可 支配收入 | 相对收入差距 | 绝对收入差距 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | ||
poor×time | 0.1516*** | -0.3668*** | -0.0114 | 0.3284*** | -0.7669*** | 0.0418* | |
(4.131) | (-6.804) | (-0.244) | (11.658) | (-11.274) | (1.928) | ||
城镇化 | 0.4256 | -0.6196* | 0.0077 | 0.0963 | 0.2001 | 0.1551 | |
(1.590) | (-1.752) | (0.025) | (0.432) | (0.472) | (0.797) | ||
资本投入 | 0.1723*** | -0.1009* | 0.1841*** | 0.1246*** | -0.0552 | 0.1478*** | |
(3.978) | (-1.729) | (3.986) | (4.629) | (-0.972) | (5.244) | ||
产业非农化 | 0.1115*** | -0.0604** | 0.2035*** | 0.1061*** | -0.0577*** | 0.1663*** | |
(4.944) | (-2.612) | (7.304) | (6.351) | (-3.163) | (7.416) | ||
农业产出 | 1.0024*** | -0.5181*** | 1.1302*** | 1.0265*** | -0.6408*** | 1.1043*** | |
(12.687) | (-5.574) | (11.103) | (16.895) | (-6.309) | (13.661) | ||
地方财政政策 | 0.3804** | -0.5395*** | 0.2637 | 0.2470** | -0.4932** | 0.0566 | |
(2.613) | (-3.290) | (1.407) | (2.611) | (-2.615) | (0.629) | ||
农村就业 | -0.0066 | -0.4198 | -0.0210 | 0.0125 | -1.4750* | -0.6042** | |
(-0.017) | (-0.731) | (-0.047) | (0.034) | (-1.900) | (-2.007) | ||
常数项 | -1.8649*** | 4.4737*** | -0.1676 | -1.8094*** | 5.3556*** | 0.4666** | |
(-8.331) | (13.204) | (-0.626) | (-8.958) | (11.711) | (2.595) | ||
PSM | YES | YES | YES | NO | NO | NO | |
样本量 | 626 | 626 | 626 | 1190 | 1190 | 1190 | |
R2 | 0.887 | 0.694 | 0.844 | 0.896 | 0.731 | 0.848 |
表4
动态效应检验结果
变量 | 相对收入差距 | 绝对收入差距 | 相对收入差距 | 绝对收入差距 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | ||
poor×time(2014) | -0.3668*** | -0.0632 | -0.7590*** | -0.0359* | |
poor×time1(2015) | -0.3292*** | -0.1011** | -0.7198*** | -0.0385 | |
poor×time2(2016) | -0.3822*** | -0.0044 | -0.7882*** | 0.0576** | |
poor×time3(2017) | -0.3844*** | 0.0353 | -0.7890*** | 0.1205*** | |
poor×time4(2018) | -0.3706*** | 0.1050* | -0.7876*** | 0.2006*** | |
poor×time5(2019) | -0.3569*** | 0.0342 | -0.7486*** | 0.1599*** | |
控制变量 | YES | YES | YES | YES | |
PSM | YES | YES | NO | NO | |
常数项 | 4.5086*** | -0.1349 | 5.3980*** | 0.4608*** | |
样本数 | 626 | 626 | 1190 | 1190 | |
R2 | 0.696 | 0.856 | 0.732 | 0.870 |
表5
平行趋势检验结果
变量 | 相对收入差距 | 绝对收入差距 | 相对收入差距 | 绝对收入差距 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | ||
pre_3(2011) | -0.0245 | -0.0778 | 0.0634 | -0.0225 | |
pre_2(2012) | -0.0268 | -0.0475 | -0.0103 | -0.0426** | |
pre_1(2013) | -0.0701 | -0.0273 | -0.0634 | -0.0457** | |
Current(2014) | -0.3629*** | -0.0727 | -0.5322*** | -0.1491*** | |
post_1(2015) | -0.3935*** | -0.0973 | -0.5894*** | -0.1582*** | |
post_2(2016) | -0.3921*** | 0.0035 | -0.5520*** | -0.1681*** | |
post_3(2017) | -0.3932*** | 0.0518 | -0.5753*** | -0.1889*** | |
post_4(2018) | -0.3943*** | 0.1354* | -0.5873*** | -0.2012*** | |
post_5(2019) | -0.3560*** | 0.0932 | -0.5688*** | -0.1747*** | |
控制变量 | YES | YES | YES | YES | |
PSM | YES | YES | NO | NO | |
常数项 | 3.7725*** | 0.9986*** | 4.1566*** | 1.0381*** | |
样本数 | 626 | 626 | 1190 | 1190 | |
R2 | 0.683 | 0.848 | 0.802 | 0.942 |
表6
不同PSM匹配方法的稳健性检验结果
| 核匹配 | 半径匹配 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
相对收 入差距 | 绝对收 入差距 | 相对收 入差距 | 绝对收 入差距 | 相对收 入差距 | 绝对收 入差距 | 相对收 入差距 | 绝对收 入差距 | ||
(15) | (16) | (17) | (18) | (19) | (20) | (21) | (22) | ||
poor×time(2014) | -0.4562*** | -0.0545** | -0.7590*** | -0.0359* | -0.4880*** | -0.0426* | -0.7590*** | -0.0359* | |
poor×time1(2015) | -0.4316*** | -0.0787** | -0.7198*** | -0.0385 | -0.4794*** | -0.0520* | -0.7198*** | -0.0385 | |
poor×time2(2016) | -0.4721*** | 0.0174 | -0.7882*** | 0.0576** | -0.5044*** | 0.0468 | -0.7882*** | 0.0576** | |
poor×time3(2017) | -0.4648*** | 0.0690* | -0.7890*** | 0.1205*** | -0.5008*** | 0.1035*** | -0.7890*** | 0.1205*** | |
poor×time4(2018) | -0.4700*** | 0.1382*** | -0.7876*** | 0.2006*** | -0.5088*** | 0.1781*** | -0.7876*** | 0.2006*** | |
poor×time5(2019) | -0.4109*** | 0.0822 | -0.7486*** | 0.1599*** | -0.4324*** | 0.1321*** | -0.7486*** | 0.1599*** | |
控制变量 | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | |
PSM | YES | YES | NO | NO | YES | YES | NO | NO | |
常数项 | 4.6598*** | 0.1201 | 5.3980*** | 0.4608*** | 4.9005*** | 0.2622 | 5.3980*** | 0.4608*** | |
样本数 | 884 | 884 | 1190 | 1190 | 937 | 937 | 1190 | 1190 | |
R2 | 0.725 | 0.858 | 0.732 | 0.869 | 0.751 | 0.866 | 0.732 | 0.869 |
表7
作用机制检验结果
变量 | 城镇化 | 资本投入 | 产业非农化 | 农业产出 | 地方财政政策 | 农村就业 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(23) | (24) | (25) | (26) | (27) | (28) | |
poor×time(2014) | 0.0300*** | 0.2425*** | 0.0358 | 0.1767*** | 0.0077 | -0.0039 |
(2.8417) | (3.3113) | (0.2962) | (4.8777) | (0.6749) | (-0.8273) | |
poor×time1(2015) | 0.0301*** | 0.5323*** | 0.1308 | 0.2207*** | 0.0917*** | -0.0013 |
(2.9209) | (7.4351) | (1.1122) | (6.2519) | (8.2631) | (-0.2820) | |
poor×time2(2016) | 0.0325*** | 0.4135*** | 0.2309* | 0.2756*** | 0.0204* | -0.0035 |
(3.1558) | (5.7973) | (1.9579) | (7.8080) | (1.8355) | (-0.7503) | |
poor×time3(2017) | 0.0269*** | 0.5948*** | 0.3947*** | 0.3160*** | 0.0122 | -0.0029 |
(2.8195) | (9.0197) | (3.6041) | (9.6561) | (1.1774) | (-0.6866) | |
poor×time4(2018) | 0.0252*** | 0.6791*** | 0.5751*** | 0.3282*** | 0.0219** | -0.0043 |
(2.6679) | (10.5331) | (5.3022) | (10.1781) | (2.1375) | (-1.0123) | |
poor×time5(2019) | 0.0276*** | 0.5375*** | 0.7128*** | 0.5268*** | -0.0259*** | -0.0035 |
(3.0736) | (8.8079) | (6.8897) | (17.1754) | (-2.6532) | (-0.8732) | |
常数项 | 0.1467*** | 0.8022*** | 1.9684*** | 0.7785*** | 0.3541*** | 0.6051*** |
(12.7146) | (16.6351) | (9.0630) | (22.5784) | (19.9360) | (122.7656) | |
PSM | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
样本量 | 626 | 626 | 626 | 626 | 626 | 626 |
R2 | 0.058 | 0.240 | 0.130 | 0.396 | 0.182 | 0.002 |
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