资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6): 1222-1233.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.13

• 土地资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

多情景模拟下新时代中国耕地保护底线预测

于昊辰1(), 曾思燕2, 王庆宾3, 戴劲3, 卞正富1, 陈浮1,4()   

  1. 1.中国矿业大学公共管理学院,徐州 221116
    2.西湖大学工学院,杭州 310024
    3.中国国土勘测规划院,北京 100035
    4.中国矿业大学低碳能源研究院,徐州 221008
  • 收稿日期:2020-11-01 修回日期:2021-01-03 出版日期:2021-06-25 发布日期:2021-08-25
  • 通讯作者: 陈浮,男,江苏射阳人,研究员、博导,研究方向为国土空间规划与整治。E-mail: chenfu@cumt.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:于昊辰,男,山东青岛人,博士生,研究方向为土地资源管理。E-mail: haochen.yu@cumt.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD06B02);中国国土勘测规划院外协科技项目(2018041);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划资助项目(KYCX21_2111)

Forecast on China’s cultivated land protection baseline in the new era by multi- scenario simulations

YU Haochen1(), ZENG Siyan2, WANG Qingbin3, DAI Jin3, BIAN Zhengfu1, CHEN Fu1,4()   

  1. 1. School of Public Policy and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
    2. School of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou 310024, China
    3. China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035, China
    4. Low Carbon Energy Institute, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221008, China
  • Received:2020-11-01 Revised:2021-01-03 Online:2021-06-25 Published:2021-08-25

摘要:

耕地是国家粮食安全的基石,关系到未来中华民族的生存。但究竟需要守住多少耕地才能满足新时代中国粮食需求的底线,一直存在着不同的争论。为此,本文从厘清不同情景下耕地最低保有量需求出发,构建兼顾人口、人均粮食、粮食单产的耕地需求预测模型,模拟完全自给、高度自给、适度自给3种情景的耕地需求量;结合耕地未来可能的变化趋势预测,判定耕地保护的理想能保量、基础应保量、底线必保量。结果表明:①2020、2025、2030、2035年理想能保量要求至少保住19.20亿、18.39亿、18.47亿、16.57亿亩耕地;基础应保量要求至少保住18.49亿、17.72亿、17.78亿、16.12亿亩耕地;底线必保量要求至少保住17.80亿、17.09亿、17.09亿、15.51亿亩耕地。其中基础应保量可作为理性的策略选择。②目前划定15.51亿亩永久基本农田基本能保障2035年粮食自给,但今后若放弃严控政策,则难以满足2030、2035年粮食完全自给的耕地需求。未来应全面细化并继续严格实施耕地保护政策,保障国家粮食安全。

关键词: 耕地保护, 耕地保有量, 粮食安全, 预测, 情景模拟

Abstract:

Cultivated land is the cornerstone of national food security. However, there have been debates about how much cultivated land should be preserved to meet the bottom line of China’s food demand in the new era. Therefore, this study started from clarifying the minimum demand of cultivated land under different scenarios. A prediction model was constructed, which considered population, grain consumption per capita, and grain yield per unit cultivated area. Then, the cultivated land demand was simulated under three scenarios completely self-sufficient, highly self-sufficient, and moderately self-sufficient. Combining with the prediction of the cultivated land change, cultivated land protection was proposed at three levels, including the ideal amount that could be protected (IACP), the basic amount that should be protected (BASP), and the minimum amount that must be protected (MAMP). The results show that: in 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035, the IACP requires to preserve at least 1.920 billion, 1.839 billion, 1.847 billion and 1.657 billion mu, respectively; the BASP requires to preserve at least 1.849 billion, 1.772 billion, 1.778 billion and 1.612 billion mu, respectively; the MAMP requires to preserve at least 1.780 billion, 1.709 billion, 1.709 billion and 1.551 billion mu, respectively. There into, the BASP of cultivated land may be chosen as a rational strategy of protection. However, if the strict control policy is abandoned in the future, it will be difficult to meet the demand of completely self-sufficient in grain production in 2030 and 2035. Therefore, differentiated,continuous and strict policy of land protection should be implemented to ensure food security in China.

Key words: cultivated land protection, total cultivated land demand, food security, prediction, scenario simulation