资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6): 1065-1076.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.01

• 资源管理 •    下一篇

补贴政策对中国光伏装机市场的影响——基于面板数据回归的实证分析

董长贵(), 周润民(), 李佳颖   

  1. 中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-17 修回日期:2020-08-12 出版日期:2021-06-25 发布日期:2021-08-25
  • 通讯作者: 周润民,男,甘肃临夏人,硕士研究生,研究方向为能源环境政策。E-mail: runmin.zhou@ruc.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:董长贵,男,湖南衡阳人,副教授,研究方向为能源环境政策。E-mail: changgui.dong@ruc.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC630028)

The effect of feed-in tariff on China’s photovoltaic capacity development: An empirical analysis based on panel data regression

DONG Changgui(), ZHOU Runmin(), LI Jiaying   

  1. School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2020-07-17 Revised:2020-08-12 Online:2021-06-25 Published:2021-08-25

摘要:

准确评估补贴对于新兴产业发展的影响是科学制定政府补贴政策的重要依据。一方面,补贴过高会带来财政压力和产能过剩;另一方面,补贴过低会造成产业发展动力不足。中国光伏产业的高速增长伴随着亟待解决的“弃光限电”和财政补贴缺口问题,其背后是光伏补贴政策科学评估的缺乏。为此,本文以中国光伏产业为例,运用面板数据回归和模拟仿真方法,严谨评估中央补贴对光伏产业发展的影响大小。研究发现:①光伏补贴每提升0.1元/度电,全国光伏装机将增加540万~660万kW/年,大大超过现有文献估计。②反事实模拟表明,如果一开始完全取消光伏补贴,中国光伏装机市场规模将在原有基础上缩水85%左右。③以2019年弃光限电问题严重的9省为例,如果光伏补贴调整至不存在弃光的水平,这些省份的光伏补贴缺口每年可减少13亿元。本文研究结论可用于补贴政策调整优化、缓解弃光限电和补贴缺口等多个现实政策问题。

关键词: 光伏产业, 补贴政策, 政策评估, 弃光限电, 补贴缺口, 反事实模拟, 日照资源

Abstract:

Accurately estimating the impact of government subsidy on the development of strategic new industries is a key to evidence-based decision making of subsidy policies because, on the one hand, over-subsidization will bring about fiscal pressure and overcapacity to the society, and on the other hand, under-subsidization will slow down the development of these new industries. The rapid growth of China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry is accompanied by the problems of solar curtailment and fiscal pressure which need to be solved urgently. Behind this is the lack of scientific evaluation of PV subsidy policy. This research took China’s PV industry as an example, and used panel data regression and counterfactual analysis to rigorously estimate the impact of government subsidy on PV market development. Our findings have the following indications. (1) With all other factors controlled, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kWh in PV subsidy will bring about 5.4-6.6 GW/year of installed capacity to the Chinese PV market, which is much greater than that estimated in the literature. (2) From a different perspective, if China were not having any PV subsidy in the first place, the PV market size would likely shrink by 85% compared to the actual case. (3) Taking the nine provinces with serious PV curtailment in the first half year of 2019 as the case, if PV subsidies were adjusted to a level where there is no curtailment, the subsidy deficit will be reduced by about RMB 1.3 billion yuan per year for these provinces. The conclusions of this research can be applied to optimizing the subsidy policy design and mitigating policy problems including PV curtailment and subsidy deficit.

Key words: solar PV industry, subsidy policy, policy evaluation, PV curtailment, subsidy deficit, counterfactual simulation, solar resource