农地流转对化肥投入的影响——以山东省为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.05.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农地流转将改变农户的化肥投入配置,进而直接影响农业生态环境。基于山东省10县（市、区）892份农户数据,利用内生转换模型估计了不同农地流转行为对农户化肥投入的影响,并运用中介效应模型验证了农地流转对农户化肥投入的影响机理。结果表明：①不同农地流转行为对农户化肥投入的影响存在显著差异,转入农地后农户化肥投入显著减少,而转出农地后农户化肥投入显著增加;从农地流转影响化肥投入的机理来看,农地流转主要通过改变农业劳动供给影响农户化肥投入;②购买社会化服务虽然减少了农户化肥投入,但尚未完全抵消转出农地导致的化肥投入增加;③技术培训、经营规模、家庭劳动力人数以及兼业化程度亦能够对农户化肥投入产生显著影响。为此,应该引导农户适度扩大经营规模,积极规范农户的生产行为,同时大力发展农业社会化服务,以减少化肥投入。

关键词: 农地流转, 化肥投入, 内生转换模型, 农业劳动供给, 社会化服务, 山东省

Abstract:

The transfer of farmland will change the fertilizer input of farmers, and then directly affect the agricultural ecological environment. Based on the data of 892 farmers in 10 counties of Shandong Province, this study estimated the impact of different farmland transfer behaviors on farmers’ fertilizer input by using the endogenous switching model, and verified the mechanism of the impact of farmland transfer on farmers’ fertilizer input by using an intermediary effect model. The results show that there are significant differences in the effects of different farmland transfer behaviors on Farmers’ chemical fertilizer input. Farmer’s chemical fertilizer input decreases significantly after the farmland is transferred in, while increases significantly after the farmland is transferred out. From the mechanism of farmland transfer affecting fertilizer input, farmland transfer mainly affects farmers’ fertilizer input by changing agricultural labor supply; Although the purchase of social services has reduced farmers’ fertilizer input, it has not completely offset the increase of fertilizer input caused by farmland transfer out; Technical training, business scale, family labor force and the degree of part-time employment can also have a significant impact on Farmers’ fertilizer input. Therefore, the government should guide the farmers to expand the scale of farmland appropriately, actively regulate their production behavior, and vigorously develop external agricultural services to reduce the input of fertilizers.

Key words: farmland transfer, fertilizer input, endogenous switching model, agricultural labor supply, social services, Shandong Province

郑纪刚, 张日新, 曾昉. 农地流转对化肥投入的影响——以山东省为例[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(5): 921-931.

ZHENG Jigang, ZHANG Rixin, ZENG Fang. Impact of farmland transfer on fertilizer input:Taking Shandong Province as an example[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(5): 921-931.

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变量类型	变量名称	变量定义及单位	均值	标准差
被解释变量	化肥投入	化肥折纯量/（kg/亩）	128.26	47.98
	转入农地	是=1,否=0	0.46	0.50
	转出农地	是=1,否=0	0.08	0.27
主要自变量	农业劳动供给	家庭劳动力年人均农业劳动时间/小时	1185.50	359.17
	购买社会化服务	是=1,否=0	0.77	0.42
控制变量
户主个体特征	户主年龄	户主实际年龄/岁	45.62	9.37
	户主受教育年限	户主实际受教育年限/年	8.55	3.68
	户主务农经验	户主实际务农年限/年	19.96	6.97
	户主技术培训	是=1,否=0	0.24	0.43
经营特征	家庭劳动力人数	农户家庭自有劳动力人数/人	2.13	0.60
	兼业程度	兼业劳动力与家庭人口数之比	0.33	0.37
	专业化程度	农业收入与家庭总收入之比	0.88	0.24
	经营规模	设施蔬菜种植面积/亩	7.06	5.96
	农地确权	是=1,否=0	0.96	0.20
外部特征	农产品价格	当年农产品价格相对于去年价格/上涨=1,未上涨=0	0.23	0.42
	社会网络	可以借到钱的亲友数量/人	7.78	3.79

变量	未参与流转农户	转出户	转入户
样本数/个	413	72	407
样本占比/%	46.30	8.07	45.63
化肥投入/（kg/亩）	134.27	137.98	120.45
农业劳动供给/小时	1034.26	836.92	1400.62

变量	卡方值	自由度	p值
蔬菜产量/（kg/亩）	3.048	3	0.384
化肥投入/（kg/亩）	0.449	3	0.930
农药投入/（元/亩）	0.913	3	0.822
种苗投入/（元/亩）	2.025	3	0.567
劳动投入/（元/亩）	1.654	3	0.647
其他投入/（元/亩）	2.406	3	0.493

变量	选择方程	影响效应方程		选择方程	影响效应方程
变量	转入农地	转入农地	未转入农地	转出农地	转出农地	未转出农地
户主年龄	-0.018***	-0.014	0.001	0.026***	0.016	-0.113**
	(0.006)	(0.039)	(0.020)	(0.004)	(0.077)	(0.053)
户主受教育年限	-0.009	-0.055	0.034	0.015	0.294	-0.451
	(0.032)	(0.218)	(0.106)	(0.021)	(0.275)	(0.286)
户主务农经验	-0.007	-0.022	-0.113	0.047	0.304	-0.460**
	(0.013)	(0.092)	(0.086)	(0.029)	(0.191)	(0.178)
户主技术培训	0.284	-4.868***	-1.254**	-0.520	-3.542***	-3.786**
	(0.189)	(0.851)	(0.520)	(0.386)	(1.272)	(1.667)
家庭劳动力人数	0.062**	-1.275*	-0.690*	-0.015	-4.564**	-4.667***
	(0.028)	(0.660)	(0.352)	(0.064)	(1.778)	(1.574)
兼业程度	-0.184**	1.326*	1.128**	0.479**	4.216**	2.324**
	(0.083)	(0.676)	(0.492)	(0.197)	(1.818)	(1.062)
专业化程度	0.674***	-1.713	-2.420	-0.119***	-1.956	-1.518*
	(0.056)	(2.021)	(3.235)	(0.008)	(1.973)	(0.799)
经营规模		-0.416***	-4.022***		-4.817***	-0.627**
		(0.076)	(0.263)		(0.657)	(0.260)
农地确权	0.128	-2.486	1.894	0.262	-2.776	-1.806
	(0.243)	(1.835)	(1.848)	(0.170)	(1.719)	(1.524)
农产品价格	0.108	0.593	0.202	-0.096	0.546	0.583
	(0.101)	(0.671)	(0.368)	(0.068)	(0.826)	(0.606)
社会网络	0.146***			-0.115
	(0.049)			(0.097)
常数项	-5.746***	144.528***	279.985***	2.815***	224.409***	294.327***
	(1.076)	(8.129)	(10.329)	(0.721)	(8.695)	(5.426)
残差相关系数		0.663***	-0.482***		-0.753***	0.506***
		(0.165)	(0.129)		(0.267)	(0.184)

变量	转入农地			转出农地
变量	ATT	ATU	ATE	ATT	ATU	ATE
化肥投入	-3.015***	-4.120***	-3.227***	1.132**	2.049***	1.328***
	(0.616)	(0.568)	(0.527)	(0.510)	(0.485)	(0.462)