黄河流域水量分配和再分配

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.04.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

流域水资源配置是黄河流域水资源管理的核心。本文应用破产理论和规则,研究了4种情形下的黄河流域水量分配和再分配,包括1987年流域水量分配、流域水量与入河泥沙量变化下的再分配、黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略下的再分配以及南水北调西线工程下的再分配。得到以下发现：①1987年流域水量分配过程和结果的分析发现,分配最接近SSRs-PRO规则,在考虑省区地理位置的基础上体现了上下游统筹。②在当前流域经济和社会发展、生态环境、水沙关系变化情景下的分析表明,流域再次面临破产分配。③黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略下综合农业用水效率的再分配显示,用水效率高的山东、河南和四川在所有破产规则下分配水量都增加,而效率低的山西、青海、甘肃和宁夏都下降。④比较南水北调西线工程调水50.0亿、90.0亿和170.0亿m ³的规模发现,调水90.0亿m ³并继续沿用“87方案”的SSRs-PRO规则是一个合理的选择。将破产理论应用于黄河流域为黄河流域水量分配和再分配提供了一种新的思路。

关键词: 黄河流域, 破产分配, 水量再分配, 农业用水效率, 南水北调西线工程, 流域生态保护和高质量发展

Abstract:

Basin water allocation is the core of water resources management in the Yellow River Basin. By applying the bankruptcy theory and water resources bankruptcy allocation rules, this study analyzed the water resources allocation and re-allocations in the Yellow River Basin under four scenarios, including the 1987 water resources allocation; water resources re-allocations under changes in natural water resources and sedimentation; water resources allocations under Yellow River ecological protection and high-quality development strategy; and water resources allocations under the implementation of the West Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The examination of the 1987 water resources allocation revealed that the allocations are more close to the sequential sharing rules-proportional rule (SSRs-PRO) bankruptcy rule, indicating a combination of provincial geographical location and upstream-downstream coordination. (2) The analysis in view of the current situation of economic and social development, ecological environment, and water and sediment relationship in the basin showed that the basin is facing bankruptcy distribution again. (3) Under ecological protection and high-quality development strategy in the river basin, the re-allocation analysis incorporating agricultural water use efficiency indicated that the provinces with high water productivity, including Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan Provinces, will enjoy increased allocation under all bankruptcy rules; while Shanxi, Qinghai, Gansu, and Ningxia, where water productivity is low, will have decreased allocation. (4) The comparison between diversion scales of 5, 9, and 17 billion m ³of the West Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project showed that 9 billion m ³ division and application of SSRs-PRO of the “Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme in 1987” is a reasonable choice for the Yellow River Basin. Applying bankruptcy theory to the Yellow River Basin provides a new perspective for water resources allocation and re-allocation in the basin.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, bankruptcy allocation, water resources re-allocation, agricultural water use efficiency, West Route of South-to-North Water Transfer, ecological protection and high-quality development strategy

陈琛, 郭甲嘉, 沈大军. 黄河流域水量分配和再分配[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(4): 799-812.

CHEN Chen, GUO Jiajia, SHEN Dajun. Water resources allocation and re-allocation of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(4): 799-812.

图/表 11

表1

水资源破产分配规则"

规则	表达
等比例（PRO）	按照分配水量与需水总量的比例将水量等比例分配给每个用户,即 $x i PRO = λ c i$ , $λ = E / C$ , $E = ∑ i = 1 n a i$ 。式中： $x i$ 为用户i所分配的水量; $c i$ 为用户i的需水量; $λ$ 为不同规则分配中根据分配水量和需水量设置的参数;E为流域分配水量;C为流域所有用户的总需水量;n为流域内所有参与分水的用户数; $a i$ 为用户i对流域的贡献水量。
限制等量增加（CEA）	等量分配水量给所有用户;当满足小用户的需求后,继续等量分配水量给其他用户,即 $x i CEA = min c i, λ$ , $λ = E / n$ 且 $∑ i = 1 n min c i, λ = E$ 。
限制等量减少（CEL）	等量减少所有用户的需水量至分配水量;若小用户减少为0后,继续等量减少其他用户的水量至分配水量,即 $x i CEL = max 0, c i - λ$ , $λ = (C - E) / n$ 且 $∑ i = 1 n max 0, c i - λ = E$ 。
调整的等比例（AP）	按照两阶段分配水量：第一阶段,若在满足所有其他用户需求的情况下,还剩余水量,则分配该水量给该用户;第二阶段,将剩余水量和剩余需求按等比例分配,即 $x i AP = v i + c i - v i ∑ c i - v i × E - ∑ v i$ , $v i = max {0, E - C + c i}$ 。式中： $v i$ 为除第i个用户外其余用户需求均被满足的剩余水量。
塔木德（TAL）	按照分配水量与需水总量的比例制定规则：若<50%,按照50%需求进行CEA规则分配;若>50%,则先满足50%需求,剩余需求和水量按照CEL规则分配,即当 $E ≤ 1 / 2 C$ 时, $x i Tal = min c i / 2, λ$ , $λ = E / n$ ;当 $1 / 2 C < E < C$ 时, $x i Tal = c i / 2 + max 0, c i / 2 - λ$ , $λ = (C - E) / n$ 。
顺序共享等比例（SSRs-PRO）	按照用户的可用水量（本地贡献量和上游余水量之和）、需水量以及其下游所有用户的缺水量（需水量和产水量之差）,从上游到下游依次分配。具体为：首先,计算其可用水量与自身需水量和下游缺水量和的比例,然后,据此比例和其需水量乘积计算其分配水量。公式为：对于所有的 $ω i = i, D i, E i, 0, c i, C D i$ ,存在 $λ > 0$ ,使得 $x i SSRs - PRO = λ c i$ , $x D i SSRs - PRO = λ C D i$ 。式中： $ω i$ 为第i个用户与其下游用户形成的向量空间; $D i$ 为用户i的所有下游用户; $E i$ 为用户i的可用水量; $C D i$ 为用户i的下游所有用户缺水量之和; $x D i$ 为用户i的下游所有用户的分配水量之和。
顺序共享限制等量增加（SSRs-CEA）	按照用户的可用水量、需水量和其下游用水户的缺水量,从上游到下游依次分配。① 当其需水量<其可用水量的50%时,分配给其所有需水量（满足其需求）;② 当其需水量>其可用水量的50%且下游缺水量<其可用水量的50%时,分配给其可用水量与下游缺水量的差额（满足下游需求）;③ 当其需水量和下游缺水量均>其可用水量的50%时,分配给其可用水量的50%（下游也50%）。即对所有 $ω i = i, D i, E i, 0, c i, C D i$ ,存在 $λ > 0$ ,使得 $x i SSRs - CEA = min {c i, λ}$ , $x D i SSRs - CEA = min {C D i λ}$ 。
顺序共享限制等量减少（SSRs-CEL）	按照用户的可用水量、需水量和其下游用水户的缺水量,从上游到下游依次分配。① 当其需水量与下游缺水量差的绝对值<可用水量时（ $c i - C D i < E$ ）,分配给其需水量和可用水量之和减去下游缺水量的50%（即 $(c i + E - C D i) / 2$ ）;② 当其需水量与下游缺水量的差>可用水量时（ $c i - C D i > E$ ）,分配其可用水量;③ 当下游缺水量与其需水量的差>可用水量时（ $C D i - c i > E$ ）,不分配给其水量。即对所有 $ω i = i, D i, E i, 0, c i, C D i$ ,存在 $λ > 0$ ,使得 $x i SSRs - CEL = max {0, c i - λ}$ , $x D i SSRs - CEL = max {0, C D i - λ}$ 。
顺序共享塔木德（SSRs-TAL）	按照用户的可用水量、需水量和其下游用水户的缺水量,从上游到下游依次分配。当其可用水量<其需水量和下游缺水量之和的50%时,按其需水量的50%应用SSRs-CEA规则分配;当其可用水量>其需水量和下游缺水量之和的50%时,先分配给所有用水户其需求量50%的水量,其余部分按其需水量的50%应用SSRs-CEL规则分配。即对所有 $ω i = i, D i, E i, 0, c i, C D i$ ,存在 $λ > 0$ ,当 $E i ≤ (c i + C D i) / 2$ 时, $x i SSRs - TAL = min c i 2, λ$ , $x D i SSRs - TAL = min C D i 2, λ$ ,当 $E i ≥ (c i + C D i) / 2$ 时, $x i SSRs - TAL = c i - min c i 2, λ$ , $x D i SSRs - TAL = C D i - min C D i 2, λ$ 。

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略下的农业水量分配（亿m3）"

		青海	四川	甘肃	宁夏	内蒙古	陕西	山西	河南	山东	津冀
生活用水		1.6	0.1	5.2	3.2	5.6	10.0	8.2	11.7	8.8	1.4
工业用水		0.7	0.0	5.5	3.9	6.9	6.8	7.3	11.7	8.4	1.0
贡献量		55.8	12.1	33.3	2.8	15.1	30.8	18.5	15.0	5.7	0.0
农业用水量（考虑农业用水效率）	需水量	4.4	0.2	10.7	6.3	38.5	44.2	21.3	64.5	116.8	4.7
	PRO	2.7	0.1	6.5	3.8	23.4	26.9	13.0	39.2	70.9	2.9
	CEL	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.3	25.0	2.1	45.3	97.6	0.0
	CEA	4.4	0.2	10.7	6.3	35.4	35.4	21.3	35.4	35.4	4.7
	AP	2.7	0.1	6.5	3.8	23.4	26.9	13.0	39.2	70.9	2.9
	TAL	2.2	0.1	5.3	3.2	19.2	22.1	10.7	35.9	88.2	2.4
	SSRs-PRO	1.4	0.1	4.9	2.9	19.2	25.3	13.1	41.7	77.5	3.1
	SSRs-CEL	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	13.1	5.8	56.7	112.9	0.8
	SSRs-CEA	4.4	0.2	10.7	6.3	38.5	44.2	21.3	29.0	29.9	4.7
	SSRs-TAL	2.2	0.1	5.3	3.2	19.2	22.1	10.7	34.7	89.4	2.4
农业用水量（不考虑农业用水效率）	需水量	8.8	0.2	24.0	34.0	67.5	32.8	25.5	41.0	73.7	4.1
	PRO	5.4	0.1	14.6	20.6	41.0	19.9	15.5	24.9	44.8	2.5
	CEL	0.0	0.0	8.4	18.4	51.9	17.2	9.9	25.4	58.1	0.0
	CEA	8.8	0.2	24.0	25.4	25.4	25.4	25.4	25.4	25.4	4.1
	AP	5.4	0.1	14.6	20.6	41.0	19.9	15.5	24.9	44.8	2.5
	TAL	4.4	0.1	12.0	17.0	48.3	16.4	12.8	21.8	54.5	2.0
	SSRs-PRO	2.8	0.1	11.0	15.9	34.6	20.4	17.3	29.5	54.6	3.0
	SSRs-CEL	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	39.8	19.0	18.6	37.5	72.0	2.3
	SSRs-CEA	8.8	0.2	24.0	34.0	26.1	28.5	23.5	19.2	20.9	4.0
	SSRs-TAL	4.4	0.1	12.0	17.0	33.8	16.4	12.8	28.0	62.8	2.0
水量差别	PRO	-2.7	0.0	-8.1	-16.8	-17.6	6.9	-2.6	14.3	26.2	0.4
	CEL	0.0	0.0	-8.4	-18.4	-32.6	7.8	-7.8	19.9	39.5	0.0
	CEA	-4.5	0.1	-13.3	-19.0	10.0	10.0	-4.0	10.0	10.0	0.7
	AP	-2.7	0.0	-8.1	-16.8	-17.6	6.9	-2.6	14.3	26.2	0.4
	TAL	-2.2	0.0	-6.7	-13.8	-29.1	5.7	-2.1	14.1	33.7	0.3
	SSRs-PRO	-1.4	0.0	-6.1	-12.9	-15.4	4.9	-4.2	12.2	22.8	0.1
	SSRs-CEL	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-39.8	-5.9	-12.9	19.2	40.9	-1.5
	SSRs-CEA	-4.5	0.1	-13.3	-27.7	12.4	15.7	-2.2	9.7	9.0	0.7
	SSRs-TAL	-2.2	0.0	-6.7	-13.8	-14.5	5.7	-2.1	6.7	26.6	0.4

表6

表7

表8

表9

表10

表11

参考文献 42

[1]	沈大军. 水资源配置理论、方法与实践[M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2007.
	[ Shen D J. Theory and Application of Water Resources Allocation[M]. Beijing: China Water&Power Press, 2007.]
[2]	张代凤. 基于AHP-BP模型的文山州水资源可持续利用评价分析[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2013,24(4):203-209.
	[ Zhang D F. Evaluation of sustainable use of water resources in Wenshan based on AHP-BP model[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2013,24(4):203-209.]
[3]	金晶, 唐德善, 李晓英. 基于AHP-模糊决策模型的水资源配置方案优选[J]. 水电能源科学, 2013, ( 7):33-35.
	[ Jin J, Tang D S, Li X Y. Scheme optimization of water resources allocation based on AHP-Fuzzy decision model[J]. International Journal Hydroelectric Energy, 2013, ( 7):33-35.]
[4]	马骏, 郑垂勇. 南水北调东中线受水区水资源与社会经济和谐度评价[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2010,20(11):36-41.
	[ Ma J, Zheng C Y. Water resources and social-economic harmony degree evaluation of water conservancy area of South-to-North Water Diversion Project[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2010,20(11):36-41.]
[5]	甘肃省人民政府. 石羊河流域水资源分配方案及2005-2006年年度水量调度实施计划[R]. 兰州: 甘肃省人民政府, 2005.
	[ People’s Government of Gansu Province. The Shiyang River Basin Water Resources Allocation Scheme and the Implementation Plan of Annual Water Allocation in 2005-2006[R]. Lanzhou: People’s Government of Gansu Province, 2005.]
[6]	中华人民共和国水利部. 黑河流域近期治理规划[M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2002.
	[ Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China. Heihe River Basin Recent Management Plan[M]. Beijing: China Water & Power Press, 2002.]
[7]	乔西现. 黄河水量统一调度回顾与展望[J]. 人民黄河, 2019,41(9):1-5.
	[ Qiao X X. Review and prospect of integrated water regulation of the Yellow River[J]. Yellow River, 2019,41(9):1-5.]
[8]	沈大军, 阿丽古娜, 陈琛. 黄河流域水权制度的问题、挑战和对策[J]. 资源科学, 2020,42(1):46-56.
	[ Shen D J, Ali G N, Chen C. Water rights system in the Yellow River Basin: Problems, challenges, and suggestions[J]. Resources Science, 2020,42(1):46-56.]
[9]	左其亭, 吴滨滨, 张伟, 等. 跨界河流分水理论方法及黄河分水新方案计算[J]. 资源科学, 2020,42(1):37-45.
	[ Zuo Q T, Wu B B, Zhang W, et al. A method of water distribution in transboundary rivers and the new calculation scheme of the Yellow River water distribution[J]. Resources Science, 2020,42(1):37-45.]
[10]	王煜, 彭少明, 郑小康. 黄河流域水量分配方案优化及综合调度的关键科学问题[J]. 水科学进展, 2018,29(5):614-624.
	[ Wang Y, Peng S M, Zheng X K. Key scientific issues of water allocation plan optimization and comprehensive operation for Yellow River Basin[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2018,29(5):614-624.]
[11]	王煜, 彭少明, 郑小康, 等. 黄河“八七”分水方案的适应性评价与提升策略[J]. 水科学进展, 2019,30(5):632-642.
	[ Wang Y, Peng S M, Zheng X K, et al. Adaptability assessment and promotion strategy of the Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2019,30(5):632-642.]
[12]	贾绍凤, 梁媛. 新形势下黄河流域水资源配置战略调整研究[J]. 资源科学, 2020,42(1):29-36.
	[ Jia S F, Liang Y. Suggestions for strategic allocation of the Yellow River water resources under the new situation[J]. Resources Science, 2020,42(1):29-36.]
[13]	Zarezadeh M, Madani K, Morid S. Resolving Transboundary Water Conflicts: Lessons Learned from the Qezelozan-Sefidrood River Bankruptcy Problem [C]. Albuquerque: World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, 2012.
[14]	Mianabadi H, Mostert E, Zarghami M, et al. Transboundary Water Resources Allocation Using Bankruptcy Theory: Case Study of Euphrates and Tigris Rivers [C]. Aveiro: Transboundary Water Management across Borders and Interfaces: Present and Future Challenges, 2013.
[15]	Degefu D M, He W J, Yuan L, et al. Bankruptcy to surplus: Sharing transboundary river basin’s water under scarcity[J]. Water Resources Management, 2018,32(8):1-17. doi: 10.1007/s11269-017-1805-4
[16]	Jarkeh M R, Mianabadi A, Mianabadi H. Developing new scenarios for water allocation negotiations: A case study of the Euphrates River Basin[J]. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2016,374:9-15. doi: 10.5194/piahs-374-9-2016
[17]	Mianabadi H, Mostert E, Pande S, et al. Weighted bankruptcy rules and transboundary water resources allocation[J]. Water Resources Management, 2015,29(7):2303-2321. doi: 10.1007/s11269-015-0942-x
[18]	袁亮, 沈菊琴, 何伟军, 等. 基于主体不平等的跨国界河流水资源分配的破产博弈研究[J]. 河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2018,20(2):65-69.
	[ Yuan L, Shen J Q, He W J, et al. Bankruptcy game of transboundary river water resources allocation based on subject inequality[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2018,20(2):65-69.]
[19]	Yuan L, He W J, Liao Z Y, et al. Allocating water in the Mekong River Basin during the dry season[J]. Water, 2019,11(2):400-400. doi: 10.3390/w11020400
[20]	Degefu D M, He W J. Alloocating water under bankruptcy scenario[J]. Water Resources Management, 2016,30(11):3949-3964. doi: 10.1007/s11269-016-1403-x
[21]	Madani K, Zarezadeh M. Bankruptcy Methods for Resolving Water Resources Conflicts [C]. Albuquerque: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, 2012.
[22]	Janjua S, Hassan I. Transboundary water allocation in critical scarcity conditions: A stochastic bankruptcy approach[J]. Aqua, 2020,69(3):224-237.
[23]	Janjua S, Hassan I. Use of bankruptcy methods for resolving interprovincial water conflicts over transboundary river: Case study of Indus River in Pakistan[J]. River Research and Applications, 2020,36(1):1334-1344. doi: 10.1002/rra.v36.7
[24]	Rightnar J, Dinar A. The Welfare implications of bankruptcy allocation of the Colorado River water: The case of the Salton Sea region[J]. Water Resources Management, 2020,34(8):1-18. doi: 10.1007/s11269-019-02415-4
[25]	Wickramage H M, Roberts D C, Hearne R R, et al. Water allocation using the bankruptcy model: A case study of the Missouri River[J]. Water, 2020, DOI: 10.3390/w12030619. doi: 10.3390/w12030619
[26]	孙冬营, 王慧敏, 褚钰. 破产理论在解决跨行政区河流水资源配置冲突中的应用[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015,25(7):148-153.
	[ Sun D Y, Wan H M, Chu Y. Application of bankruptcy theory in resolving water resource allocation conflict over trans-boundary rivers[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2015,25(7):148-153.]
[27]	Li S L, He Y H, Chen X H, et al. The improved bankruptcy method and its application in regional water resource allocation[J]. Journal of Hydro-environment Research, 2020,28:48-56. doi: 10.1016/j.jher.2018.07.003
[28]	Qin J N, Fu X, Peng S M, et al. An integrated decision support framework for incorporating fairness and stability concerns into river water allocation[J]. Water Resources Management, 2020,34(1):211-230. doi: 10.1007/s11269-019-02439-w
[29]	张凯, 李万明. 基于破产博弈理论的流域水资源优化配置分析[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2018,33(1):99-105.
	[ Zhang K, Li W M. Analysis of optimal water allocation in river basin using bankruptcy game theory[J]. Statistics and Information Tribune, 2018,33(1):99-105.]
[30]	O’Neill B. A problem of rights arbitration from the Talmud[J]. Mathematical Social Sciences, 1982,2(4):345-371. doi: 10.1016/0165-4896(82)90029-4
[31]	Thomson W. For claims problems, compromising between the proportional and constrained equal awards rules[J]. Economic Theory, 2015,60(3):495-520. doi: 10.1007/s00199-015-0888-5
[32]	魏针, 李登峰. 基于破产理论的省属高校招生计划分配方法[J]. 福州大学学报(自然科学版), 2020,48(1):14-19.
	[ Wei Z, Li D F. An allocation method of provincial college enrollment plan based on bankruptcy theory[J]. Journal of Fuzhou University (Natural Science Edition), 2020,48(1):14-19.]
[33]	Ansink E, Weikard H P. Sequential sharing rules for river sharing problems[J]. Social Choice and Welfare, 2012,38(2):187-210. doi: 10.1007/s00355-010-0525-y
[34]	Bozorg-Haddad O, Athari E, Fallah-Mehdipour E, et al. Real-time water allocation policies calculated with bankruptcy games and genetic programing[J]. Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 2018,18(2):430-449. doi: 10.2166/ws.2017.102
[35]	黄河水利委员会. 黄河水资源利用的初步意见[R]. 郑州: 黄河水利委员会, 1983.
	[ Yellow River Conservancy Commission. Preliminary Suggestions on Utilization of Yellow River Water Resources[R]. Zhengzhou: Yellow River Conservancy Commission, 1983.]
[36]	黄河水利委员会. 黄河河川径流量的预测和分配的初步意见[R]. 郑州: 黄河水利委员会, 1984.
	[ Yellow River Conservancy Commission. A Preliminary Opinion on the Forecast and Distribution of the Runoff of the Yellow River[R]. Zhengzhou: Yellow River Conservancy Commission, 1984.]
[37]	水利电力部. 黄河可供水量分配方案[R]. 北京: 水利电力部, 1987.
	[ Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity. Allocation Scheme of Water Supply of the Yellow River[R]. Beijing: Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity, 1987.]
[38]	潘启民, 张如胜, 李中有. 黄河流域分区水资源量及其分布特征分析[J]. 人民黄河, 2008,30(8):54-55.
	[ Pan Q M, Zhang R S, Li Z Y. Analysis of water resources quantity and distribution characteristics in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Yellow River, 2008,30(8):54-55.]
[39]	黄河水利委员会. 黄河水资源公报[M]. 郑州: 黄河水利委员会, 2019.
	[ Yellow River Conservancy Commission. Yellow River Water Resources Bulletin[M]. Zhengzhou: Yellow River Conservancy Commission, 2019.]
[40]	中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2019.
	[ National Bureau of Statistics, PRC. China Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2019.]
[41]	王忠静, 郑航. 黄河“八七”分水方案过程点滴及现实意义[J]. 人民黄河, 2019,41(10):109-112.
	[ Wang Z J, Zheng H. Things and current significance of the Yellow River Water Allocation Scheme in 1987[J]. Yellow River, 2019,41(10):109-112.]
[42]	刘晓燕, 王瑞玲, 张原锋, 等. 黄河河川径流利用的阈值[J]. 水利学报, 2020,51(6):631-641.
	[ Liu X Y, Wang R L, Zhang Y F, et al. Threshold of the runoff utilization of the Yellow River[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2020,51(6):631-641.]

方案或数据	省区	青海	四川	甘肃	宁夏	内蒙古	陕西	山西	河南	山东	津冀	合计
黄委会水量分配初步意见（会前方案）	生活工业	2.0	0.0	5.0	1.0	10.0	9.0	26.0	9.0	12.0	0.0	74.0
	农业	12.0	0.0	25.0	39.0	52.0	34.0	26.0	49.0	63.0	0.0	300.0
	合计	14.0	0.0	30.0	40.0	62.0	43.0	52.0	58.0	75.0	0.0	374.0
各省区2000年需水预测情况	生活工业	3.4	0.0	18.5	2.9	6.0	22.7	24.8	30.9	16.0	6.0	131.3
	农业	32.3	0.0	55.0	57.6	142.9	92.3	36.0	80.9	68.0	0.0	564.9
	合计	35.7	0.0	73.5	60.5	148.9	115.0	60.8	111.8	84.0	6.0	696.2
黄河河川径流量的预测和分配的初步意见	生活工业	2.0	0.4	4.6	1.1	6.3	4.4	14.6	8.5	16.5	20.0	78.4
	农业	12.1	0.0	25.8	38.9	52.3	33.6	28.5	46.9	53.6	0.0	291.7
	合计	14.1	0.4	30.4	40.0	58.6	38.0	43.1	55.4	70.1	20.0	370.1
1980年用水现状	生活工业	0.8	0.3	1.6	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.5	2.6	4.3	0.0	10.7
	农业	7.6	0.0	18.7	36.0	51.3	25.2	18.4	32.8	48.0	0.0	238.0
	合计	8.4	0.3	20.3	36.3	51.6	25.2	18.9	35.4	52.3	0.0	248.7
黄河可供水量分配方案（87方案）		14.1	0.4	30.4	40.0	58.6	38.0	43.1	55.4	70.0	20.0	370.0

		青海	四川	甘肃	宁夏	内蒙古	陕西	山西	河南	山东	津冀	Pearson相关系数
		青海	四川	甘肃	宁夏	内蒙古	陕西	山西	河南	山东	津冀	会前方案	87方案
贡献量/亿m³		110.3	23.9	65.8	5.6	29.9	61.0	36.7	29.6	11.2	0.0
需水量/亿m³		35.7	0.0	73.5	60.5	148.9	115.0	60.8	111.8	84.0	6.0
分配水量/亿m³	PRO	19.0	0.0	39.1	32.2	79.1	61.1	32.3	59.4	44.6	3.2	0.82**	0.79**
	CEL	0.0	0.0	32.9	19.9	108.3	74.4	20.2	71.2	43.4	0.0	0.72*	0.72*
	CEA	35.7	0.0	46.9	46.9	46.9	46.9	46.9	46.9	46.9	6.0	0.83**	0.76*
	AP	19.0	0.0	39.1	32.2	79.1	61.1	32.3	59.4	44.6	3.2	0.82**	0.79**
	TAL	17.9	0.0	36.8	30.3	93.6	59.7	30.4	56.5	42.0	3.0	0.78**	0.75*
	SSRs-PRO	9.0	0.0	28.4	23.9	65.7	63.6	38.1	76.4	60.7	4.3	0.89**	0.87**
	SSRs-CEL	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	70.7	75.9	41.2	102.0	79.1	1.1	0.80**	0.79**
	SSRs-CEA	35.7	0.0	73.5	47.2	38.4	49.3	42.8	36.0	41.1	6.0	0.54	0.47
	SSRs-TAL	17.9	0.0	36.8	30.3	74.1	57.5	30.4	39.3	80.8	3.0	0.84**	0.82**
会前方案/亿m³		14.0	0.0	30.0	40.0	62.0	43.0	52.0	58.0	75.0	0.0
会前方案满意度/%		39.2	100.0	40.8	66.1	41.6	37.4	85.5	51.9	89.3	0.0
87方案水量/亿m³		14.1	0.4	30.4	40.0	58.6	38.0	43.1	55.4	70.0	20.0
87方案满意度/%		39.5	100.0	41.4	66.1	39.4	33.0	70.9	49.6	83.3	333.3

		青海	四川	甘肃	宁夏	内蒙古	陕西	山西	河南	山东	津冀
贡献量/亿m³		97.4	21.1	58.1	5.0	26.4	53.8	32.3	26.1	9.9	0.0
需水量/亿m³		11.1	0.3	34.7	41.1	80.0	49.6	41.0	64.3	90.9	6.5
分配水量/亿m³	PRO	8.7	0.2	27.3	32.3	63.0	39.0	32.3	50.6	71.5	5.1
	CEL	0.7	0.0	24.3	30.7	69.7	39.3	30.7	54.0	80.6	0.0
	CEA	11.1	0.3	34.7	41.1	48.9	48.9	41.0	48.9	48.9	6.5
	AP	8.7	0.2	27.2	32.3	62.9	39.0	32.2	50.6	71.8	5.1
	TAL	5.5	0.1	23.2	29.6	68.5	38.1	29.5	52.8	79.4	3.2
	SSRs-PRO	5.8	0.2	23.2	27.8	57.5	39.7	34.4	55.8	80.0	5.7
	SSRs-CEL	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.4	69.2	44.2	38.3	63.0	90.2	5.8
	SSRs-CEA	11.1	0.3	34.7	41.1	60.4	49.6	41.0	41.0	44.5	6.5
	SSRs-TAL	5.5	0.1	17.3	20.5	57.1	38.1	35.3	61.5	89.5	5.0
满意度/%	PRO	78.7	78.7	78.7	78.7	78.7	78.7	78.7	78.7	78.7	78.7
	CEL	6.7	0.0	70.2	74.8	87.1	79.2	74.8	83.9	88.6	0.0
	CEA	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	61.1	98.5	100.0	76.0	53.8	100.0
	AP	78.6	78.6	78.6	78.6	78.6	78.6	78.6	78.6	79.0	78.6
	TAL	50.0	50.0	66.8	72.0	85.6	76.8	72.0	82.1	87.4	50.0
	SSRs-PRO	52.1	57.3	67.0	67.7	71.8	80.0	83.9	86.7	88.0	88.0
	SSRs-CEL	0.0	0.0	0.0	47.2	86.5	89.1	93.4	97.9	99.3	89.5
	SSRs-CEA	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	75.5	100.0	100.0	63.7	48.9	100.0
	SSRs-TAL	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	71.4	76.9	86.0	95.5	98.4	77.8

	青海	四川	甘肃	宁夏	内蒙古	陕西	山西	河南	山东	津冀
单位耗水量GDP	79.75	116.72	53.60	39.51	83.25	191.65	175.28	156.21	246.40	195.83
单位耗水量农业增加值	9.93	24.83	8.79	3.72	11.25	26.58	16.52	31.20	31.48	23.15
单位耗水量工业和农业增加值	99.89	163.38	67.97	45.16	107.90	263.08	237.06	221.62	354.05	263.14

		青海	四川	甘肃	宁夏	内蒙古	陕西	山西	河南	山东	津冀
考虑农业用水效率/亿m³	PRO	4.9	0.2	17.2	10.9	35.9	43.6	28.4	62.5	88.1	5.3
	CEL	2.3	0.1	10.7	7.1	31.8	41.8	17.6	68.6	114.8	2.4
	CEA	6.6	0.3	21.3	13.4	47.9	52.2	36.8	58.8	52.6	7.1
	AP	4.9	0.2	17.2	10.9	35.9	43.6	28.4	62.5	88.1	5.3
	TAL	4.4	0.2	16.0	10.3	31.8	38.9	26.1	59.2	105.4	4.8
	SSRs-PRO	3.6	0.2	15.5	10.0	31.8	42.1	28.6	65.1	94.7	5.5
	SSRs-CEL	2.3	0.1	10.7	7.1	12.5	29.8	21.2	80.0	130.1	3.2
	SSRs-CEA	6.6	0.3	21.3	13.4	51.0	61.0	36.8	52.3	47.1	7.1
	SSRs-TAL	4.4	0.2	16.0	10.3	31.8	38.9	26.1	58.0	106.6	4.8
不考虑农业用水效率/亿m³	PRO	7.6	0.2	25.2	27.7	53.5	36.7	31.0	48.2	62.0	4.9
	CEL	2.3	0.1	19.0	25.5	64.4	34.0	25.4	48.7	75.3	2.4
	CEA	11.1	0.3	34.7	32.5	37.9	42.1	40.8	48.7	42.6	6.5
	AP	7.6	0.2	25.2	27.7	53.5	36.7	31.0	48.2	62.0	4.9
	TAL	6.7	0.2	22.7	24.1	60.8	33.2	28.2	45.1	71.7	4.4
	SSRs-PRO	5.0	0.2	21.7	22.9	47.1	37.2	32.8	52.9	71.8	5.4
	SSRs-CEL	2.3	0.1	10.7	7.1	52.3	35.7	34.1	60.9	89.2	4.7
	SSRs-CEA	11.1	0.3	34.7	41.1	38.6	45.2	39.0	42.6	38.1	6.4
	SSRs-TAL	6.7	0.2	22.7	24.1	46.3	33.2	28.2	51.4	80.0	4.4
水量满意度差/%	PRO	-24.4	10.7	-23.3	-40.9	-22.1	13.9	-6.2	22.2	28.7	6.4
	CEL	0.0	0.0	-24.1	-44.7	-40.8	15.7	-19.0	31.0	43.4	0.0
	CEA	-40.4	17.9	-38.4	-46.3	12.6	20.3	-9.9	15.6	11.0	10.5
	AP	-24.4	10.7	-23.3	-40.9	-22.1	13.9	-6.2	22.2	28.7	6.4
	TAL	-20.3	7.1	-19.2	-33.6	-36.3	11.5	-5.2	22.0	37.1	5.1
	SSRs-PRO	-12.6	7.1	-17.7	-31.5	-19.2	9.8	-10.3	18.9	25.1	2.2
	SSRs-CEL	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-49.8	-12.0	-31.4	29.8	45.0	-23.1
	SSRs-CEA	-40.4	17.9	-38.4	-67.3	15.4	31.8	-5.3	15.1	9.9	10.7
	SSRs-TAL	-20.3	7.1	-19.2	-33.6	-18.1	11.5	-5.2	10.4	29.2	5.5