资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 710-721.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.04.06
韩梦瑶1,2,3, 刘卫东1,2,3(), 谢漪甜4, 姜宛贝1,2
收稿日期:
2020-06-22
修回日期:
2020-09-19
出版日期:
2021-04-25
发布日期:
2021-06-25
通讯作者:
刘卫东,男,河北隆化人,研究员,主要研究方向为经济地理与区域发展。E-mail: liuwd@igsnrr.ac.cn作者简介:
韩梦瑶,女,河北沧州人,副研究员,主要研究方向为资源经济与区域发展。E-mail: hanmy@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
HAN Mengyao1,2,3, LIU Weidong1,2,3(), XIE Yitian4, JIANG Wanbei1,2
Received:
2020-06-22
Revised:
2020-09-19
Online:
2021-04-25
Published:
2021-06-25
摘要:
一个国家或地区碳排放目标的实现取决于经济增速与碳排放降速的相对关系,而碳排放与经济发展的相对脱钩是中国碳排放目标实现的重要保障。本文结合泰尔指数和Tapio模型,刻画中国各省份2005—2017年碳排放与经济发展的相对关系,研究碳排放的区域差异及脱钩指数的演变趋势,主要结论如下:①中国各地区的碳排放总量与经济发展均呈现了增长趋势,碳排放强度大多呈现了降低趋势;②尽管中国各省份经济发展的区域差距逐年缩小,但中国各省份的碳排放差距、尤其是区域间碳排放差距逐年扩大;③中国大多数地区的碳排放与经济增长经历了扩张负脱钩、扩张挂钩到弱脱钩的变化历程,但部分省份的脱钩稳定性相对较低;④上海、天津、重庆、浙江、山东等不断趋近强脱钩状态,但少数地区仍在扩张挂钩和扩张负脱钩状态中交替。本文结论有助于辨识中国不同地区碳排放与经济发展的相对关系,落实不同碳排放及经济发展水平下可行的低碳发展策略,进而为中国碳达峰与碳中和目标的实现提供借鉴参考。
韩梦瑶, 刘卫东, 谢漪甜, 姜宛贝. 中国省域碳排放的区域差异及脱钩趋势演变[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(4): 710-721.
HAN Mengyao, LIU Weidong, XIE Yitian, JIANG Wanbei. Regional disparity and decoupling evolution of China’s carbon emissions by province[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(4): 710-721.
表3
2005—2017年中国各省份碳排放强度下降比例"
序号 | 比例 | 省份 |
---|---|---|
1 | >55% | 北京(68.75%)、云南(59.67%)、天津(59.31%)、吉林(58.43%)、重庆(58.21%)、贵州(58.11%)、山东(55.48%) |
2 | (45%, 55%] | 湖北(53.32%)、河南(52.53%)、上海(52.32%)、浙江(49.19%)、湖南(48.98%)、四川(47.76%)、广东(46.37%) |
3 | (35%, 45%] | 福建(44.26%)、江苏(43.93%)、甘肃(42.19%)、黑龙江(39.92%)、陕西(37.81%) |
4 | (25%, 35%] | 河北(35.63%)、广西(31.72%)、山西(31.32%)、安徽(30.14%)、海南(29.89%)、江西(27.21%)、辽宁(25.79%) |
5 | (15%, 25%] | 内蒙古(24.81%)、青海(19.25%) |
6 | 宁夏(-12.51%)、新疆(-27.99%) |
表4
2005—2017年中国各区域碳排放强度变化趋势及省份贡献"
序号 | 区域 | 碳强度变化/(kg/元) | 碳强度降幅 | 省份贡献 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 华北 | 0.38→0.24 | 36.36% | 山西(26.99%)、河北(21.33%)、天津(20.87%)、内蒙古(19.56%)、北京(11.25%) |
2 | 东北 | 0.33→0.20 | 38.70% | 吉林(53.47%)、黑龙江(26.51%)、辽宁(20.02%) |
3 | 华东 | 0.22→0.12 | 46.52% | 山东(25.52%)、江苏(14.67%)、上海(13.72%)、浙江(13.49%)、安徽(12.09%)、福建(11.85%)、江西(8.66%) |
4 | 华中 | 0.27→0.13 | 51.80% | 湖北(35.78%)、河南(33.91%)、湖南(30.31%) |
5 | 华南 | 0.15→0.09 | 41.94% | 广西(35.93%)、广东(35.70%)、海南(28.37%) |
6 | 西南 | 0.30→0.13 | 55.38% | 贵州(45.81%)、云南(25.49%)、重庆(17.06%)、四川(11.64%) |
7 | 西北 | 0.37→0.32 | 13.77% | 甘肃(140.48%)、陕西(83.32%)、青海(49.81%)、宁夏(-82.36%)、新疆(-91.25%) |
表5
2005—2017年中国碳排放及经济发展的区域差异及贡献对比"
年份 | 碳排放 | 经济发展 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
泰尔指数 | 区域内贡献/% | 区域间贡献/% | 泰尔指数 | 区域内贡献/% | 区域间贡献/% | ||
2005 | 0.09 | 56.42 | 43.58 | 0.12 | 59.19 | 40.81 | |
2006 | 0.09 | 57.70 | 42.30 | 0.12 | 58.38 | 41.62 | |
2007 | 0.09 | 56.60 | 43.40 | 0.11 | 58.06 | 41.94 | |
2008 | 0.10 | 56.23 | 43.77 | 0.11 | 57.33 | 42.67 | |
2009 | 0.11 | 57.58 | 42.42 | 0.10 | 57.12 | 42.88 | |
2010 | 0.11 | 54.83 | 45.17 | 0.09 | 56.29 | 43.71 | |
2011 | 0.12 | 56.40 | 43.60 | 0.09 | 56.80 | 43.20 | |
2012 | 0.12 | 54.99 | 45.01 | 0.08 | 57.19 | 42.81 | |
2013 | 0.13 | 53.24 | 46.76 | 0.08 | 57.54 | 42.46 | |
2014 | 0.13 | 52.48 | 47.52 | 0.08 | 58.23 | 41.77 | |
2015 | 0.14 | 52.98 | 47.02 | 0.08 | 58.73 | 41.27 | |
2016 | 0.14 | 52.29 | 47.71 | 0.08 | 59.13 | 40.87 | |
2017 | 0.16 | 54.89 | 45.11 | 0.08 | 59.33 | 40.67 |
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