资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 693-709.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.04.05

• 中国碳达峰研究专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

绿色税收视角下产业结构变迁对中国碳排放的影响

周迪1, 罗东权2   

  1. 1. 广东外语外贸大学数学与统计学院,广州 510006
    2. 中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心,北京 102206
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-27 修回日期:2020-08-13 出版日期:2021-04-25 发布日期:2021-06-25
  • 作者简介:周迪,男,湖北鄂州人,副教授,研究方向为区域经济、区域资源配置。E-mail: zhoudi19880101@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003049);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJC790191)

Green taxation, industrial structure transformation, and carbon emissions reduction

ZHOU Di1, LUO Dongquan2   

  1. 1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006, China
    2. Center for China Fiscal Development, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206, China
  • Received:2020-03-27 Revised:2020-08-13 Online:2021-04-25 Published:2021-06-25

摘要:

从绿色税收视角探讨产业结构与碳排放的关系,有利于制定控制碳排放的财税政策,助力绿色发展转型。本文首先测算出2003—2016年中国30个省(市、区)的CO2排放量,在扩展STRIPAT模型基础上,运用静态面板模型和面板门槛模型,对绿色税收下产业结构变迁的碳排放效应进行实证研究,并从产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化两个维度进行分析。研究发现:①产业结构变迁会显著影响中国CO2排放总量,绿色税收对其影响具有门槛效应;②在达到门槛值之前,绿色税收有效地促进了产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化对碳排放的影响。跨越门槛值以后,绿色税收对产业结构变迁的作用出现差异。一方面,绿色税收对产业结构高级化的碳减排机制仍具有促进效应,但相比达到门槛值之前,作用有所降低;另一方面,绿色税收表现出对产业结构合理化的碳排放效应具有抑制作用;③部分省份的绿色税收强度在2009年后跨越了门槛值,消费税改革可能是这种变化出现的主要原因。基于实证结论,本文提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 碳排放, 绿色税收, 产业结构合理化, 产业结构高级化, 门槛效应, 中国

Abstract:

Exploring the relationship between industrial structure transformation and carbon emissions from the perspective of green tax is helpful for making public policies on controlling carbon emissions, as well as for promoting green development. This study first calculated the CO2 emissions of 30 provinces in China’s mainland from 2003 to 2016, then examined the relationship between industrial structure transformation and carbon emissions based on the extended STRIPAT model by using the static panel model and panel threshold model, and analyzed the relationship from the dimensions of industrial structure rationalization and upgrading. The empirical results show that: (1) Industrial structure transformation significantly affects China’s carbon emissions, and the green tax has a threshold effect on the impact; (2) Before achieving the threshold value, the green tax level effectively strengthens the impact of industrial structure transformation on carbon emissions, but the impact is quite different when the threshold value has been achieved. On the one hand, green taxation still has a strong effect on the decline of carbon emissions when upgrading the industrial structure although the influence is lower than before. On the other hand, it hinders the effect of industrial structure rationalization in reducing carbon emissions; (3) The green tax levels in some provinces exceeded the threshold after 2009, probably mainly due to the tax reform.

Key words: carbon emissions, green tax, industrial structure rationalization, industrial structure upgrading, threshold effect, China