资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 652-668.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.04.02
收稿日期:
2020-09-24
修回日期:
2021-01-02
出版日期:
2021-04-25
发布日期:
2021-06-25
通讯作者:
张济建,男,江苏海安人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为能源经济。E-mail: jjzhang@ujs.edu.cn作者简介:
刘宏笪,男,江苏南通人,硕士,研究方向为绿色发展。E-mail: liuhoda@163.com
基金资助:
LIU Hongda1, ZHANG Jijian2(), ZHANG Xi3
Received:
2020-09-24
Revised:
2021-01-02
Online:
2021-04-25
Published:
2021-06-25
摘要:
碳中和目标下,基于供应链调整各国间的碳排放关系,明确中国碳排放责任与形象,对于中国深化绿色发展、实现低碳转型具有重要意义。基于全球供应链视角,引入生产与贸易中的碳排放问题,并构建碳供应链测度分析模型。本文基于2008—2014年世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)数据,首先,明确中国在碳供应链生产端的国内生产长度、国外生产长度,以及中国在碳供应链贸易端的碳出口、碳进口规模;其次,测算并总结中国、美国等19个世界主要国家碳净出口与国内碳排放情况,对比分析上述国家碳泄漏与碳减排情况,从而剖析并刻画中国碳排放责任与形象;最后,基于19个世界主要国家碳供应链生产、贸易端的情况,总结得出各国碳供应链国内、国外情况,进一步探究中国在全球供应链视角下的碳排放责任与形象调整方向。结果表明:①中国国内生产长度呈现二、三、一产业梯次化衰减特征,国外生产长度明显趋短,且能源、电气等关键产业陷入低端锁定困局;②中国年均碳出口、碳进口分别达880.375 MT、401.328 MT,碳规模位居世界前列;③中国贡献了41.21%的碳净出口份额,美英日法则形成686.511 MT的碳泄漏缺口,中国以全球最大的碳净出口国家身份,在全球供应链体系中承担积极的碳排放责任;中美俄国内碳排放达到1000 MT以上,但中国碳减排率达3.79%,显著高于美国2.07%、俄罗斯-1.05%,中国以较高的碳利用率呈现碳减排形象;④中国国内、国外碳供应链均处于“野猪型”状态,碳供应链质量有待提升;发达国家国内碳供应链多以“水牛型”状态出现,萎缩的经济降低了生产能力与碳排放量;国外碳供应链中,发达国家多呈现“乌龟型”特征,碳减排乏力且碳排放责任推诿。因此,中国须针对生产环节调整产业结构,摆脱产业依赖,继续秉持大国碳减排责任、呈现积极的碳排放形象。
刘宏笪, 张济建, 张茜. 全球供应链视角下的中国碳排放责任与形象[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(4): 652-668.
LIU Hongda, ZHANG Jijian, ZHANG Xi. China’s carbon emission responsibility and image from the perspective of global supply chain[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(4): 652-668.
表1
投入产出表结构"
国家与产业 | 中间投入 | 最终使用/需求 | 总产 出 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
国家1 | ... | 国家N | 国家1 | ... | 国家N | ||||||||||||||||||||
产业1 | ... | 产业j | ... | 产业1 | ... | 产业j | 家庭 最终 消费 | 政府 最终 消费 | 非营利组织消费 | 固定 资本 形成 | 存货变动 | ... | 家庭 最终 消费 | 政府最终消费 | 非营利组织消费 | 固定 资本 形成 | 存货变动 | ||||||||
国家1 | 产业1 | Z 1111 | ... | Z 111j | ... | Z 1N11 | ... | Z 1N1j | Y 1111 | Y 1112 | Y 1113 | Y 1114 | Y 1115 | ... | Y 1N11 | Y 1N12 | Y 1N13 | Y 1N14 | Y 1N15 | X 11 | |||||
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ||||||
产业j | Z 11j1 | ... | Z 11jj | ... | Z 1Nj1 | ... | Z 1Njj | Y 11j1 | Y 11j2 | Y 11j3 | Y 11j4 | Y 11j5 | ... | Y 1Nj1 | Y 1Nj2 | Y 1Nj3 | Y 1Nj4 | Y 1Nj5 | X 1j | ||||||
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | |||||
国家N | 产业1 | Z N111 | ... | Z N11j | ... | Z NN11 | ... | Z NN1j | Y N111 | Y N112 | Y N113 | Y N114 | Y N115 | ... | Y NN11 | Y NN12 | Y NN13 | Y NN14 | Y NN15 | X N1 | |||||
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ||||||
产业j | Z N1j1 | ... | Z N1jj | ... | Z NNj1 | ... | Z NNjj | Y N1j1 | Y N1j2 | Y N1j3 | Y N1j4 | Y N1j5 | ... | Y NNj1 | YNNj2 | YNNj3 | YNNj4 | YNNj5 | XNj | ||||||
增加值 | ... | ... | ... | ||||||||||||||||||||||
总产出 | (X 11)’ | ... | (X 1j)’ | ... | (X N1)’ | ... | (X Nj)’ |
表2
2008—2014年中国各产业部门碳出口量"
产业 | 2008年 | 2009年 | 2010年 | 2011年 | 2012年 | 2013年 | 2014年 | 均值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
农业、狩猎、林业和渔业 | 6.163 | 5.962 | 6.943 | 6.150 | 5.092 | 5.034 | 4.883 | 5.747 |
采掘业 | 17.642 | 10.207 | 10.097 | 10.491 | 9.976 | 9.221 | 8.583 | 10.888 |
食品、饮料和烟草 | 13.568 | 11.152 | 8.936 | 8.331 | 7.007 | 6.619 | 6.438 | 8.864 |
纺织原料和纺织制品 | 73.034 | 53.143 | 53.788 | 53.087 | 46.505 | 45.832 | 45.184 | 52.939 |
皮革、皮革制品和鞋类 | 3.006 | 1.948 | 2.265 | 2.320 | 2.275 | 2.092 | 2.190 | 2.299 |
纸浆、纸张产品、印刷和出版 | 4.767 | 4.679 | 5.950 | 7.896 | 9.491 | 10.113 | 10.768 | 7.666 |
焦炭、精炼石油和核燃料 | 13.489 | 9.803 | 12.250 | 13.188 | 13.140 | 14.459 | 14.927 | 13.037 |
化学品及化工产品 | 117.753 | 76.218 | 81.108 | 82.458 | 69.351 | 66.302 | 70.248 | 80.491 |
橡胶和塑料制品 | 14.934 | 10.079 | 9.064 | 8.909 | 8.773 | 8.273 | 7.970 | 9.714 |
其他非金属矿物产品 | 157.067 | 112.661 | 139.015 | 142.453 | 158.118 | 159.423 | 160.015 | 146.964 |
基本金属和金属产品 | 159.277 | 96.101 | 116.852 | 130.627 | 122.908 | 120.251 | 134.995 | 125.859 |
机械电气产品 | 29.194 | 20.369 | 17.868 | 17.929 | 15.782 | 14.759 | 14.698 | 18.657 |
电气和光学设备 | 39.343 | 37.546 | 26.178 | 24.111 | 23.445 | 22.355 | 22.429 | 27.915 |
运输设备 | 26.703 | 21.720 | 19.174 | 18.580 | 17.115 | 13.945 | 13.150 | 18.627 |
回收业 | 13.608 | 10.958 | 7.106 | 6.355 | 5.937 | 4.837 | 4.169 | 7.567 |
电力、燃气和水供应 | 45.821 | 38.121 | 46.091 | 48.886 | 50.486 | 47.787 | 49.484 | 46.668 |
建筑业 | 1.528 | 1.344 | 1.436 | 1.637 | 1.648 | 2.007 | 1.694 | 1.613 |
批发贸易及经纪贸易 | 4.216 | 4.232 | 2.597 | 2.247 | 1.717 | 0.979 | 0.553 | 2.363 |
零售业;家居用品修理业 | 3.806 | 3.809 | 3.851 | 4.170 | 4.205 | 3.467 | 3.430 | 3.820 |
内陆运输 | 21.882 | 18.821 | 24.515 | 27.280 | 28.435 | 25.899 | 23.422 | 24.322 |
水路运输 | 129.639 | 117.313 | 164.950 | 156.325 | 138.571 | 127.932 | 117.140 | 135.981 |
航空运输 | 98.668 | 130.384 | 110.483 | 106.431 | 95.914 | 88.436 | 80.881 | 101.600 |
其他辅助交通活动;旅行社业务 | 3.643 | 3.154 | 3.966 | 4.340 | 4.436 | 4.137 | 3.823 | 3.928 |
餐饮业 | 3.387 | 3.069 | 2.192 | 1.855 | 1.560 | 1.520 | 1.454 | 2.148 |
邮电业 | 0.246 | 0.198 | 0.235 | 0.260 | 0.224 | 0.189 | 0.153 | 0.215 |
金融业 | 0.020 | 0.023 | 0.029 | 0.038 | 0.046 | 0.036 | 0.032 | 0.032 |
设备租赁和其他商业活动 | 22.036 | 19.492 | 16.000 | 15.678 | 13.594 | 11.445 | 11.398 | 15.663 |
公共行政与国防;义务社会保障 | 0.193 | 0.166 | 0.164 | 0.163 | 0.158 | 0.172 | 0.137 | 0.165 |
教育类 | 0.142 | 0.117 | 0.095 | 0.085 | 0.079 | 0.082 | 0.063 | 0.095 |
卫生和社会工作 | 0.271 | 0.225 | 0.158 | 0.132 | 0.113 | 0.125 | 0.101 | 0.161 |
其他社区、社会和个人服务 | 6.910 | 5.032 | 4.406 | 3.959 | 3.841 | 3.553 | 2.868 | 4.367 |
总值 | 1031.959 | 828.043 | 897.758 | 906.368 | 859.942 | 821.281 | 817.277 | - |
表3
2008—2014年中国各产业部门碳进口量"
产业 | 2008年 | 2009年 | 2010年 | 2011年 | 2012年 | 2013年 | 2014年 | 均值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
农业、狩猎、林业和渔业 | 3.791 | 3.577 | 4.306 | 4.679 | 4.542 | 4.438 | 4.737 | 4.296 |
采掘业 | 16.925 | 16.331 | 17.679 | 19.350 | 28.473 | 28.703 | 29.352 | 22.402 |
食品、饮料和烟草 | 3.863 | 3.352 | 4.440 | 5.301 | 5.776 | 5.929 | 6.284 | 4.992 |
纺织原料和纺织制品 | 4.085 | 3.507 | 4.314 | 4.569 | 4.188 | 4.342 | 4.514 | 4.217 |
皮革、皮革制品和鞋类 | 0.850 | 0.938 | 1.043 | 1.207 | 1.103 | 1.208 | 1.598 | 1.136 |
纸浆、纸张产品、印刷和出版 | 2.678 | 2.564 | 3.415 | 3.993 | 3.211 | 3.423 | 4.535 | 3.403 |
焦炭、精炼石油和核燃料 | 14.026 | 15.175 | 19.945 | 22.759 | 22.612 | 19.793 | 20.011 | 19.189 |
化学品及化工产品 | 34.791 | 33.952 | 45.552 | 47.807 | 47.567 | 48.180 | 52.224 | 44.296 |
橡胶和塑料制品 | 4.546 | 4.900 | 5.881 | 6.236 | 5.869 | 5.678 | 5.846 | 5.565 |
其他非金属矿物产品 | 16.493 | 16.920 | 17.447 | 18.343 | 18.203 | 18.846 | 19.429 | 17.955 |
基本金属和金属产品 | 27.737 | 26.139 | 31.220 | 36.836 | 35.899 | 41.928 | 44.470 | 34.890 |
机械电气产品 | 13.407 | 14.581 | 15.236 | 16.130 | 16.958 | 18.997 | 18.551 | 16.266 |
电气和光学设备 | 66.877 | 66.318 | 74.042 | 77.643 | 87.842 | 82.344 | 87.434 | 77.500 |
运输设备 | 1.137 | 1.506 | 2.041 | 2.350 | 2.335 | 2.638 | 2.388 | 2.056 |
回收业 | 11.653 | 11.375 | 21.596 | 31.919 | 35.678 | 42.036 | 52.612 | 29.553 |
电力、燃气和水供应 | 18.094 | 18.099 | 18.420 | 18.836 | 18.678 | 18.496 | 18.992 | 18.516 |
建筑业 | 11.758 | 13.597 | 18.492 | 21.474 | 21.880 | 25.638 | 25.986 | 19.832 |
汽车、摩托车销售等;燃料零售 | 22.455 | 23.245 | 24.844 | 25.843 | 35.852 | 36.867 | 36.559 | 29.381 |
批发贸易及经纪贸易 | 2.761 | 2.114 | 2.948 | 3.697 | 3.720 | 4.065 | 4.367 | 3.382 |
零售业、家居用品修理业 | 0.571 | 0.437 | 0.610 | 0.765 | 0.770 | 0.841 | 0.903 | 0.700 |
内陆运输 | 1.230 | 1.047 | 1.128 | 1.344 | 1.319 | 1.350 | 1.430 | 1.264 |
水路运输 | 0.668 | 0.542 | 0.516 | 0.658 | 0.730 | 0.797 | 0.823 | 0.676 |
航空运输 | 2.107 | 1.893 | 2.780 | 3.893 | 4.552 | 4.831 | 5.076 | 3.590 |
其他辅助交通活动;旅行社业务 | 3.899 | 3.895 | 4.325 | 4.830 | 6.036 | 7.188 | 8.335 | 5.501 |
餐饮业 | 1.787 | 1.624 | 1.765 | 1.834 | 1.793 | 2.790 | 3.055 | 2.093 |
邮电业 | 1.669 | 1.322 | 1.621 | 1.845 | 1.840 | 1.951 | 2.021 | 1.753 |
房地产业 | 0.478 | 0.433 | 0.663 | 0.879 | 0.840 | 0.925 | 1.035 | 0.750 |
金融业 | 1.407 | 1.159 | 1.798 | 2.392 | 2.121 | 2.476 | 3.252 | 2.086 |
设备租赁和其他商业活动 | 3.183 | 2.836 | 4.089 | 5.427 | 5.510 | 6.105 | 7.259 | 4.916 |
公共行政与国防;义务社会保障 | 6.484 | 5.756 | 8.496 | 10.819 | 11.049 | 12.167 | 13.419 | 9.741 |
教育类 | 3.020 | 2.851 | 4.581 | 6.491 | 6.824 | 7.539 | 8.351 | 5.666 |
卫生和社会工作 | 0.651 | 0.532 | 0.707 | 0.861 | 0.853 | 0.917 | 1.052 | 0.796 |
其他社区、社会和个人服务 | 2.039 | 1.894 | 2.628 | 3.387 | 3.187 | 3.464 | 4.198 | 2.971 |
总值 | 307.122 | 304.409 | 368.568 | 414.399 | 447.811 | 466.890 | 500.100 | - |
表4
2008—2014年世界主要国家国内碳排放量及碳减排情况"
国家 | 2008年 | 2009年 | 2010年 | 2011年 | 2012年 | 2013年 | 2014年 | GDP增速/% | 国内碳排 放增速/% | 碳减排率/% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
印度 | 1283.159 | 1417.592 | 1319.415 | 1312.425 | 1373.814 | 1322.495 | 1360.648 | 7.41 | 1.14 | 6.27 |
土耳其 | 208.164 | 203.267 | 200.965 | 204.467 | 210.483 | 214.411 | 205.224 | 5.17 | -0.20 | 5.37 |
波兰 | 253.089 | 237.298 | 240.207 | 249.257 | 236.644 | 219.192 | 234.468 | 3.32 | -1.12 | 4.44 |
中国 | 5165.275 | 5506.374 | 5284.847 | 5550.309 | 5829.530 | 6106.810 | 6375.425 | 7.42 | 3.63 | 3.79 |
墨西哥 | 313.087 | 309.963 | 300.788 | 301.497 | 295.841 | 285.423 | 300.997 | 2.80 | -0.61 | 3.41 |
葡萄牙 | 43.835 | 43.558 | 46.405 | 45.944 | 45.436 | 50.667 | 35.951 | 0.79 | -2.29 | 3.08 |
世界其他国家 | 6173.991 | 6044.129 | 6101.103 | 6010.432 | 6096.440 | 6173.339 | 6155.046 | 2.85 | -0.04 | 2.89 |
英国 | 360.793 | 346.520 | 335.556 | 348.759 | 351.563 | 361.517 | 365.716 | 2.61 | 0.27 | 2.34 |
美国 | 5323.996 | 4988.039 | 5242.480 | 5360.025 | 5275.860 | 5384.156 | 5426.799 | 2.45 | 0.38 | 2.07 |
澳大利亚 | 324.037 | 320.727 | 323.525 | 317.998 | 324.419 | 339.993 | 345.036 | 2.53 | 1.07 | 1.46 |
奥地利 | 33.219 | 31.502 | 31.796 | 32.183 | 31.329 | 31.868 | 32.148 | 0.66 | -0.51 | 1.17 |
丹麦 | 29.049 | 28.853 | 27.363 | 27.826 | 28.603 | 30.119 | 29.981 | 1.62 | 0.58 | 1.04 |
巴西 | 243.621 | 225.564 | 230.677 | 233.004 | 239.953 | 249.144 | 235.803 | 0.50 | -0.45 | 0.95 |
韩国 | 432.609 | 450.027 | 475.112 | 462.047 | 458.915 | 474.084 | 493.905 | 3.20 | 2.28 | 0.92 |
日本 | 897.050 | 847.848 | 854.219 | 865.151 | 873.940 | 895.630 | 884.914 | 0.37 | -0.19 | 0.56 |
意大利 | 329.202 | 288.639 | 308.922 | 297.052 | 309.822 | 308.260 | 323.684 | 0.11 | -0.06 | 0.17 |
加拿大 | 311.292 | 333.413 | 345.449 | 354.544 | 363.880 | 376.791 | 374.504 | 2.87 | 3.15 | -0.28 |
法国 | 203.602 | 198.221 | 207.691 | 211.126 | 214.808 | 223.073 | 226.180 | 0.96 | 1.80 | -0.84 |
俄罗斯 | 1269.456 | 1208.848 | 1305.973 | 1354.86 | 1379.658 | 1411.789 | 1406.224 | 0.74 | 1.79 | -1.05 |
比利时 | 44.755 | 46.704 | 48.419 | 51.426 | 50.586 | 54.947 | 52.572 | 1.25 | 2.82 | -1.57 |
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