资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 639-651.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.04.01

• 中国碳达峰研究专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

多情景视角下的中国碳达峰路径模拟——基于RICE-LEAP模型

洪竞科, 李沅潮(), 蔡伟光   

  1. 重庆大学管理科学与房地产学院,重庆 400044
  • 收稿日期:2020-09-15 修回日期:2021-01-31 出版日期:2021-04-25 发布日期:2021-06-25
  • 通讯作者: 李沅潮,男,河南焦作人,硕士生,研究方向为气候变化经济学。E-mail: yuanchaoli1996@163.com
  • 作者简介:洪竞科,男,四川成都人,教授,主要从事城市资源管理与政策研究。E-mail: hongjingke@cqu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71801023);重庆市青年拔尖人才特殊支持计划项目(T04010013)

Simulating China's carbon emission peak path under different scenarios based on RICE-LEAP model

HONG Jingke, LI Yuanchao(), CAI Weiguang   

  1. School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
  • Received:2020-09-15 Revised:2021-01-31 Online:2021-04-25 Published:2021-06-25

摘要:

作为世界最大的碳排放国家与全球第二大经济体,实现CO2排放峰值是中国应对全球气候变化的挑战。本文通过耦合自上而下式模型和自下而上式模型,创新性地构建了包含中国终端部门的新型综合评估模型——RICE-LEAP模型,并通过设置参考情景、碳排放约束情景和供给侧结构性改革情景,动态模拟了2020—2050年的中国碳达峰路径及全球气候变化趋势。研究结果表明:①中国碳排放轨迹在3个动态情景中均呈“倒U型”曲线,其中,供给侧结构性改革情景下,中国碳排放峰值水平最低,并将于2029年最早达峰;②中国碳排放主要集中在工业和交通运输业等终端部门,其碳排放贡献可达80.00%,并保持相对稳定。此外,考察期内工业和交通运输业等终端部门的碳强度下降幅度相对较小;③供给侧结构性改革情景下,能源消费结构将迈入中高级形态。该情景下的所有终端部门非化石能源的消费占比均有所提高,商业及服务业部门和城镇居民部门等终端部门将形成以天然气和非化石能源为主的能源消费结构。因此,为实现中国碳排放尽早达峰,应强化政策导向,落实能源消费总量和强度“双控”目标,推动产业结构调整和能源结构优化的互进共驱。

关键词: 气候变化, 碳排放达峰, RICE-LEAP模型, 情景分析, 供给侧结构性改革, 产业结构调整, 能源结构优化

Abstract:

As the world's largest carbon emitter and second largest economy, achieving the carbon emission peak is urgent for China to combat with global climate change. By coupling the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE) and Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, this study established a new energy-economy-environment integrated assessment model covering end-use economic sectors. Under the business-as-usual, carbon-constraint, and supply-side structural reform scenarios, China's carbon emission peak path and global climate change trend from 2020 to 2050 were systematically investigated. The results reveal that: (1) China's energy-related carbon emission trajectory presents an inverted U shape under the three dynamic scenarios. Under the supply-side structural reform scenario, carbon emissions peak earliest, with the lowest carbon emission peak in comparison to other scenarios. (2) China's energy-related carbon emissions mainly concentrate in end-use sectors such as industry and transportation, where carbon emissions contribute approximately 80% in a stable manner during the whole investigated period. In addition, carbon intensity in these carbon-intensive sectors drops relatively slowly. (3) Energy structure becomes more optimized and advanced under the supply-side structural reform scenario, where the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption has increased in all end-use sectors, with natural gas and non-fossil energy dominating in the commerce and service industry and households. Therefore, in order to achieve China's carbon emission peak the soonest, the central government should adopt policy-oriented “dual control” goals for the total energy consumption and energy intensity, and make great efforts to adjust industrial structure and optimize energy structure by taking the supply-side structural reform as the main line.

Key words: climate change, carbon emission peak, RICE-LEAP model, scenario analysis, supply-side structural reforms, industrial structure adjustment, energy structure optimization