• 路径、格局与过程 •

### 区域层面电子废弃物远景资源化潜力预测——以北京为例

1. 1.国家信息中心,北京100045
2.中国铝业集团有限公司,北京 100082
3.自然资源部信息中心,北京100036
• 收稿日期:2020-07-14 修回日期:2021-02-20 出版日期:2021-03-25 发布日期:2021-05-25
• 通讯作者: 李伯含
• 作者简介:李历铨,男,北京人,助理研究员,研究方向为资源循环评价。E-mail: liliquan@sic.gov.cn
• 基金资助:
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2019M660590)

### Forecasting prospective potential of the secondary resources in electronic waste at the regional level: Evidence from Beijing

LI Liquan1(), LI Bohan2(), CHEN Congxi3

1. 1. State Information Center, Beijing 100045, China
2. Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, Beijing 100082, China
3. Information Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100036, China
• Received:2020-07-14 Revised:2021-02-20 Online:2021-03-25 Published:2021-05-25
• Contact: LI Bohan

Abstract:

Electronic waste recycling is characterized by long-lasting process at the regional level. Study on prospective potential of the secondary resources in electronic waste at the regional level is beneficial for governments to plan the recycling outlets and for enterprises to adjust their productivity. In this study, a long-term resource prediction (LRP) model was built to obtain the prospective potential of the secondary resources. The Weibull distribution model was introduced in the LPR model to correct the lifespan distribution of electronic products, and the Logistic distribution model was introduced to expand the time dimension of the LPR model. Subsequently, the typical electronic products in Beijing were investigated in a case study, and household and office electronic products were both considered. Five hundred random households were selected for an online survey in Beijing. The resource potential of electronic waste in Beijing was predicted from 2010 to 2050, and the influencing factors and their effects were discussed. The result shows that: (1) The average annual growth rate of the quantity of the electronic waste is over 10% before 2020. But after that year, low change rate will replace the previous trend, and the total amount of the electronic waste will maintain at more than 10 million units. (2) The resource potential of electronic waste will basically stabilize and the total amount of the resources will exceed 265000 metric tons from 2018. In particular, the metal content accounts for about 54% of the total resources. (3) The effects of population growth trend, life distribution, reverse logistics and boundary setting scenarios on the recycling potential of e-waste are analyzed. The scenarios of population growth rate and product life distribution have great impacts on the overall recycling potential of electronic waste, which will increase the accumulated recycling potential by 418700 metric tons and 1331100 metric tons respectively from 2020 to 2050, with boundary setting scenario will greatly increase the recycling potential of waste computers, while reverse logistics scenario has relatively small impact. We recommend to accelerate the use of digital means to improve the traceability of electronic wastes, strengthen the overall management level of the whole life cycle of electronic products, and match up the trend with reverse logistics and appropriate business models of fast upgrading products.