家用空调制冷剂物质流动态演化特征——以中国澳门特别行政区为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.03.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

由于制冷剂较高的臭氧层消耗潜势和气候变化影响,政府和公众对于制冷剂的重视程度正不断加深。《蒙特利尔议定书》虽从源头上限制了臭氧消耗类物质（ODS）的生产和使用,却忽略了ODS的产品生命周期过程中潜在的释放风险。基于物质流分析方法,本文构建了中国澳门特别行政区（以下简称澳门特区）家用空调制冷剂的动态分析框架,并从生命周期角度量化了1998—2019年澳门特区家用空调制冷剂的流量和存量特征,揭示了不同制冷剂类型的潜在环境释放随时间的变化趋势。结果表明：①1998—2019年间,澳门特区家用空调制冷剂进口量、存量和释放量均有显著增加,其中最主要制冷剂类型为R22（CHClF₂）,且R22释放也导致了最大的臭氧消耗潜势（ODP）影响和全球变暖潜势（GWP）影响。②1998—2019年间,澳门特区家用空调制冷剂累计进口量为1096.71 t,制冷剂的存量也由零增加至512.67 t且没有达峰的迹象。近年来,澳门特区家用空调废弃阶段的制冷剂释放量贡献占比高达80%,空调使用阶段制冷剂贡献率为20%左右。尽管澳门特区家用空调制冷剂的ODP影响和GWP影响已分别于2014年和2013年达到峰值,但存量仍然具有较大规模。③未来,澳门特区政府应继续巩固和完善废弃空调回收和处置措施,进一步增加现有处理企业处置能力、强化废弃制冷剂的回收和循环处置技术水平。本文的结果可为澳门特区制冷剂的有效管理提供参考,也可为其他城市核算家用空调生命周期制冷剂提供方法支撑。

关键词: 家用空调, 制冷剂, 物质流分析, 生命周期, 中国澳门特别行政区

Abstract:

For decades, governments and the public have paid increasing attention to household air conditioning refrigerants (HARs) due to their huge environmental impacts. The Montreal Protocol restricts the use of ozone depleting substances (ODS) from the source but ignores the potential release risks during the life cycle of ODS products. Based on the material flow analysis (MFA) method, this study established a dynamic analysis framework for HARs in Macao S.A.R., China, and retrospectively quantified the characteristics of HARs in Macao S.A.R., China from a life cycle perspective during 1998-2019, revealing the trends of potential environmental releases of different refrigerant types over time. The results show that from 1998 to 2019, there was a significant increase in the import, stock, and release of HARs in Macao S.A.R., China, with the most dominant refrigerant type being R22 (CHClF₂), and the release of R22 also brings about a higher ozone depletion potential (ODP) effect and global warming potential (GWP) effect. From 1998 to 2019, the cumulative import of HARs was 1096.71 t, and the stock of HARs also increased from zero to 512.67 t with no sign of peaking in Macao S.A.R, China. In recent years, the contribution of HAR release from end-of-life stage accounted for up to 80% of the total HAR release and the contribution of HARs from the use stage is about 20%. Although the ODP effect and GWP effect of HARs have peaked in 2013 and 2014, respectively, the stock is still relatively large. The results of this study point out that Macao S.A.R, China. should continue to consolidate the recovery measures and improve the related disposal measures of waste air conditioners in the future. In addition, further increase of the disposal capacity of existing treatment enterprises and strengthening of the technical level of recovery and recycling of waste refrigerants are indeed. The results of this study can be a valuable reference for the proper management of HARs in Macao S.A.R, China. and provide a methodological support for other cities to account for life-cycle refrigerants in household air conditioners.

Key words: household air conditioner, refrigerants, material flow analysis, life cycle analysis, Macao S.A.R., China

汪中才, 宋庆彬, 蔡铠涵, 李金惠. 家用空调制冷剂物质流动态演化特征——以中国澳门特别行政区为例[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(3): 556-566.

WANG Zhongcai, SONG Qingbin, CAI Kaihan, LI Jinhui. Dynamic evolution characteristics of refrigerant mass flow in household air conditioners: A case study of Macao S.A.R., China[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(3): 556-566.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

表2

表3

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

参考文献 28

[1]	Velders G J M, Ravishankara A R, Miller M, et al. Preserving Montreal protocol climate benefits by limiting HFCs[J]. Science, 2012,335(6071):922-923. doi: 10.1126/science.1216414 pmid: 22362993
[2]	Montzka S A, Dutton G S, Yu P F, et al. An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11[J]. Nature, 2018,557(7705):413-417. pmid: 29769666
[3]	Xue M Q, Kojima N, Machimura T, et al. Flow, stock, and impact assessment of refrigerants in the Japanese household air conditioner sector[J]. The Science of the Total Environment, 2017,586:1308-1315. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.145 pmid: 28237472
[4]	Duan H B, Miller T R, Liu G, et al. A chilling prospect: Climate change effects of mismanaged refrigerants in China[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2018,52(11):6350-6356. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.7b05987 pmid: 29733640
[5]	Zhang N, Wang H Y, Gallagher J, et al. A dynamic analysis of the global warming potential associated with air conditioning at a city scale: An empirical study in Shenzhen, China[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2020,81:106354.
[6]	彭建, 王仰麟, 吴健生. 区域可持续发展生态评估的物质流分析研究进展与展望[J]. 资源科学, 2006,28(6):189-195.
	[ Peng J, Wang Y L, Wu J S. Progress and prospect of material flow analysis in the ecological assessment of regional sustainable development[J]. Resources Science, 2006,28(6):189-195.]
[7]	González-García S, Roma M, Moreira M T, et al. Environmental profile of the municipality of Madrid through the methodologies of urban metabolism and life cycle analysis[J]. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2021, DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102546. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102672 pmid: 33520608
[8]	Wang X J, Li Y X, Liu N Y, et al. An urban material flow analysis framework and measurement method from the perspective of urban metabolism[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120564. pmid: 33078048
[9]	张安迎, 童昕, 曾现来. 中国报废汽车中铂族金属回收潜力估算[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020,40(11):4821-4830.
	[ Zhang A Y, Tong X, Zeng X L. Recycling potentials of Platinum-group metals from end-of-life vehicle in China[J]. China Environmental Science, 2020,40(11):4821-4830.]
[10]	卢浩洁, 王婉君, 代敏, 等. 中国铝生命周期能耗与碳排放的情景分析及减排对策[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021,41(1):451-462.
	[ Lu H J, Wang W J, Dai M, et al. Scenario analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Chinese aluminum life cycle and emissions reduction measures[J]. China Environmental Science, 2021,41(1):451-462.]
[11]	董书恒, 逯承鹏, 邢冉, 等. 中国镁产业生态系统物质流与价值流的生命周期分析[J]. 中国环境管理, 2019,11(6):50-56.
	[ Dong S H, Lu C P, Xing R, et al. Life cycle analysis on material and value flows of magnesium industry ecosystem in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Management, 2019,11(6):50-56.]
[12]	孙静亚, 韩厚锋, 张萍, 等. 基于物质流分析的我国磷资源开发利用研究[J]. 国土与自然资源研究, 2020, (5):68-71.
	[ Sun J Y, Han H F, Zhang P, et al. Phosphorus cycling China based on material flow analysis[J]. Territory & Natural Resources Study, 2020, (5):68-71.]
[13]	蒋晓斌, 江健, 陈定江, 等. 中国乘用车塑料的动态物质流分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020,40(9):4106-4114.
	[ Jiang X B, Jiang J, Chen D J, et al. Dynamic material flow analysis of Chinese passenger car plastics[J]. China Environmental Science, 2020,40(9):4106-4114.]
[14]	栾晓玉, 刘巍, 崔兆杰, 等. 基于物质流分析的中国塑料资源代谢研究[J]. 资源科学, 2020,42(2):372-382.
	[ Luan X Y, Liu W, Cui Z J, et al. Plastic resources metabolism in China based on material flow analysis[J]. Resources Science, 2020,42(2):372-382.]
[15]	Gils J V, Posthuma L, Cousins I T, et al. Computational material flow analysis for thousands of chemicals of emerging concern in European waters[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2020, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2020.122655. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.125834 pmid: 33873034
[16]	Xue M Q, Kojima N, Zhou L, et al. Trade-off analysis between global impact potential and local risk: A case study of refrigerants[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019,217:627-632.
[17]	Fang X, Yao B, Vollmer M K, et al. Changes in HCFCS emissions in China during 2011-2017[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2019,46(16):10034-10042.
[18]	澳门特别行政区统计暨普查局(DSEC). 澳门特别行政区对外商品贸易统计数据库1998-2019[DB/OL]. (2020-06-15) [2021-01-30]. https://www.dsec.gov.mo/EMTS.aspx.
	[ Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). Macau External Merchandise Trade Statistics Database 1998-2019[DB/OL]. (2020-06-15) [2021-01-30]. https://www.dsec.gov.mo/EMTS.aspx.
[19]	澳门特别行政区政府(GOM). 第62/95/M號法令: 就控制及减少使用可减弱臭氧层之物质制定措施[EB/OL]. (1995-12-04) [2020-03-28]. https://bo.io.gov.mo/bo/i/95/49/declei62_cn.asp.
	[ Government of Macau S.A.R. Decree No. 62/95/M: Establishing Measures to Control and Reduce the Use of Substances That Can Weaken the Ozone Layer[EB/OL]. (1995-12-04) [2020-03-28]. https://bo.io.gov.mo/bo/i/95/49/declei62_cn.asp.
[20]	United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP). The Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete The Ozone Layer[R]. Montreal: UNEP, 1987.
[21]	Miller T R, Duan H B, Gregory J, et al. Quantifying domestic used electronics flows using a combination of material flow methodologies: A US case study[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2016,50(11):5711-5719. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.6b00079 pmid: 27134153
[22]	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories[R]. IPCC, 2006.
[23]	Muller E, Hilty L M, Widmer R, et al. Modeling metal stocks and flows: A review of dynamic material flow analysis methods[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2014,48(4):2102-2113. pmid: 24494583
[24]	澳门特别行政区环境保护局(DSPA). 电子及电器设备回收计划[R/OL]. (2020-01-30) [2020-11-15]. https://www.dspa.gov.mo/richtext3.aspx?a_id=1506053006.
	[ Environmental Protection Agency, Macau S.A.R (DSPA). Electronic and Electrical Equipment Recycling Program[R/OL]. (2020-01-30) [2020-11-15]. https://www.dspa.gov.mo/richtext3.aspx?a_id=1506053006.
[25]	Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan (METI). Laws and Regulation for Fluorocarbons in Japan[R/OL]. (2015-08-20) [2021-01-07]. https://www.jraia.or.jp/english/icr/ICR2015_METI.pdf.]
[26]	Ministry of Ecology and Environment, China(MEE). Ozone Protection and Phase-out of HCFCs in China[N/OL]. (2016-09-28) [2019-03-28]. http://www.ozone.org.cn/zlxz/wdxz/201609/P020191208417342445034.pdf.]
[27]	中关村在线. 中国家电市场分析[R/OL]. (2018-12-31) [2019-06-29]. http://zdc.zol.com.cn/topic/871253.html.
	[ Zhongguancun Online. China Home Appliance Market Analysis[R/OL]. (2018-12-31) [2019-06-29]. http://zdc.zol.com.cn/topic/871253.html.
[28]	孙锌, 刘静茹, 杨东, 等. 家用空调碳足迹及其关键影响因素分析[J]. 环境科学学报, 2014,34(4):1054-1060.
	[ Sun X, Liu J R, Yang D, et al. The carbon footprint of household air-conditioner and its key influence factors[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2014,34(4):1054-1060.]

制冷剂类型	中国内地/kg^[4]				日本/(kg·kW^–1)^[3]
制冷剂类型	≤1匹	1.5匹	2匹	≥3匹	充注量
R22	0.3740	0.9600	1.5460	2.1320	0.25000
R410a (CH₂F₂和C₂HF₅各占50%)	0.3740	0.9600	1.5460	2.1320	0.25000
R32	0.3740	0.9600	1.5460	2.1320	0.17500
R600a	0.0244	0.0365	0.0487	0.0609	0.00973

制冷剂类型	ODP/kg	GWP/(CO₂eq·kg^-1)
R22(CHClF₂)	0.055	1810
R410a (CH₂F₂和C₂HF₅各占50%)	0.000	2100
R32(CH₂F₂)	0.000	675
R600a(C₄H₁₀)	0.000	20

数据类型	数据来源	说明
空调销售量;空调进口来源比例;空调进口来源地分类	1998—2019年澳门特区统计数据库^[18]	根据世界银行的公开数据,本文将澳门特区家用空调来源地分为发达地区（人均国民收入≥12536美元）和发展中地区（人均国民收入<12536美元）两类。同时,本文选择日本和中国内地分别作为上述两个分类的代表,主要考虑以下2点：①日本和中国内地分别在空调技术和空调制造方面的重要地位。②日本和中国内地品牌的空调在澳门特区空调市场的代表性
制冷剂使用比例;空调功率关注度;制冷剂填充量;制冷剂释放比例	文献[4]和行业报告^[25,26];中关村在线统计报告^[27];文献[4];政府间气候变化专门委员会报告^[22]和文献[28]	由于缺乏澳门特区家用空调功率比例数据,本文选择了中国内地的数据作为替代
寿命分布;GWP和ODP排放因子	文献[23,28];联合国环境署报告^[20]和政府间气候变化专门委员会报告^[22]	根据文献调研及实地调研结果,假定澳门特区家用空调平均使用寿命为8年,上下浮动2年。并且,家用空调的寿命分布符合正态分布模型