资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 524-534.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.03.09

• 路径、格局与过程 • 上一篇    下一篇

1995—2015年美国钴物质流演变

刘立涛1(), 赵慧兰2, 刘晓洁1, 代涛3,4, 刘刚1,5()   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2.华北油田分公司勘探开发研究院,沧州 061000
    3.中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,自然资源部成矿作用与资源评价重点实验室,北京 100037
    4.中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京 100037
    5.南丹麦大学工学院生命周期工程研究中心,丹麦欧登塞 5230
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-25 修回日期:2021-03-11 出版日期:2021-03-25 发布日期:2021-05-25
  • 通讯作者: 刘刚
  • 作者简介:刘立涛,博士,助理研究员,主要研究方向为能矿资源流动与管理。E-mail: liult@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71991484);国家自然科学基金项目(71991481);国家自然科学基金项目(41401644);中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20190676);中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20201147);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0503505)

Cobalt material flow in the United States from 1995 to 2015

LIU Litao1(), ZHAO Huilan2, LIU Xiaojie1, DAI Tao3,4, LIU Gang1,5()   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, Huabei Oilfield Company, Cangzhou 061000, China
    3. MNR Key Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Assessment, Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
    4. Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037,China
    5. SDU Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Green Technology, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense, Denmark
  • Received:2020-10-25 Revised:2021-03-11 Online:2021-03-25 Published:2021-05-25
  • Contact: LIU Gang

摘要:

钴作为最重要的汽车电池材料之一,其供需平衡和物质流对全球主要国家交通绿色转型和应对气候变化至关重要。为揭示区域钴物质流的变化趋势,刻画其供应格局,本文以典型发达国家美国为例,构建了基于全生命周期贸易关联的钴物质流分析框架,开展了1995—2015年美国钴物质流量、存量和供应格局分析。研究显示:①从流量分析来看,美国采矿及精炼阶段由国内供应为主导向进口为主导转变,一次资源开采量呈递减趋势,二次资源利用规模逐渐扩大;制造阶段以高温合金和其他为主导;表观消费实现了从高温合金驱动向电池驱动的转变;含钴废弃物从其他与高温合金占主导向电子产品电池占主导转变。②从存量分析来看,终端消费品在用存量实现了从高温合金和其他驱动向高温合金和电池驱动的转换。③无论从流量还是存量来看,电动汽车电池表观消费及在用存量的总量占比在2011—2015年均增长了15%,需引起特别关注。④从供应格局来看,过去20年,美国净进口规模前3的含钴产品依次为材料、电子产品电池和电动汽车电池;材料进口80%依赖欧洲的供应格局转变为亚洲占主导(35%),美洲(27%)和欧洲(22%)为辅,供应来源日趋多元化;电池供应则进一步向亚洲集中,源自亚洲的电动汽车电池和电子产品电池进口占比分别从1995年的82%和57%提升至2015年的96%和91%。截至2015年,中国已经成为了美国最大的材料和电子产品电池供应国,第二大电动汽车电池供应国;中国供应了美国31%的材料,74%的电子产品电池和36%的电动汽车电池。在中美贸易摩擦加剧背景下,“美中”脱钩对全球、中国以及美国钴物质流的作用和影响值得深入研究和高度重视。厘清近20年来美国钴物质流变化趋势,有助于研判美国钴产业链演变态势,为进一步完善中国战略性关键矿产管理体制机制,制定适应性政策提供支撑。

关键词: 钴, 物质流分析, 全生命周期, 贸易关联, 美国

Abstract:

As a key enabling material for automotive battery, cobalt has attracted increasing governmental and academic attention in recent years, because understanding its supply and demand balance and material flow is crucial for the green transition of transportation in major countries around the world. In order to reveal the change of regional cobalt material flow and identify its supply pattern, we deployed a material flow analysis (MFA) methodology that considers international trade of all cobalt containing products through the entire life cycle for a case of the United States from 1995 to 2015. We found that: (1) From a flow perspective, the mining and refining phase has shifted from domestic supply to imports in the United States, primary production has decreased gradually, and as more cobalt containing products reach their end of life, secondary production has increased. The losses from manufacturing, particularly for superalloys and other end-uses, are significant and deserve further investigation. As apparent consumption of batteries increases, their end-of-life waste flows have gradually replaced those from superalloys and other end-uses. (2) From a stock perspective, the dominant sectors have changed from superalloys and other end-uses to both superalloys and batteries. (3) For both stocks and flows, automotive batteries have shown an increase of 15% during 2011 to 2015, which should be paid special attention to in the future. (4) From a supply pattern point of view, the top three commodities for net import of the United States are raw materials, consumer electronics batteries, and automotive batteries. The dominant source of raw materials supply has shifted from Europe (80%) to Asia (35%), supplemented by the Americas (27%) and Europe (22%). Battery supply is further concentrated in Asia, with the share of imported automotive batteries and consumer electronics batteries rising from 82% and 57% respectively in 1995, to 96% and 91% respectively in 2015. By 2015, China had become the largest supplier for consumer electronics batteries (74% in total) and raw cobalt materials (31% in total), and the second largest supplier for automotive batteries (36% in total) for the United States. In the context of expected increasing trade conflicts between China and the United States, it will be important to better understand the role of “US-China” decoupling in securing the world, China and the United States cobalt supply and material flows. Our characterization of the past cobalt material flows can help reveal the dynamics of U.S. cobalt value chain and inform China’s critical raw materials regulatory framework and policymaking.

Key words: cobalt, material flow analysis, life cycle, trade link, United States