人类圈铜循环格局演变及趋势

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.03.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

铜是支撑人类经济和社会发展的重要金属之一,人类活动主导了地球上的铜资源循环过程。本文基于文献成果,运用元素流分析方法,从总体循环格局、关键铜流演变过程、社会存量时空变化和铜循环的未来可持续性4个方面,系统分析了1910—2018年人类圈铜循环格局的动态演变及未来趋势。结果表明：①在过去的一个世纪中,人类圈铜循环强度显著增加,累计约有821.8 Tg铜资源从岩石圈中进入人类圈,其中约一半的铜以社会存量形式存储在社会经济系统中,另有381.7 Tg在铜循环各个过程中被损耗;②从关键铜流的区域演变过程看,人类圈铜循环已从之前的美洲为主导,转变为20世纪90年代起至2018年的亚洲为绝对主导;③铜社会存量的空间格局特征表明铜矿资源经开发利用后,在人类圈进行了空间再分配,经济发达地区累积了更多社会存量;④截至2050年,人类圈铜资源的供给能否满足持续增长的需求仍存在一定不确定性。本文最后从矿铜和再生铜两方面给出了提高铜资源供给能力的主要方向。

关键词: 铜循环, 人类圈, 资源利用, 社会存量, 可持续性

Abstract:

Copper has made vital contributions to sustaining and improving the human society. Anthropogenic copper cycle is the quantitative characterization of the flows and stocks of copper within the anthroposphere. To bring an update and comprehensive analysis of anthropogenic copper cycle, we systematically characterized the global time-integrated (1910-2018), multi-scale copper cycle that incorporate both stocks and anthropogenic mobilization of flows. The main results include: (1) Of the 822 Tg of copper extracted from the lithosphere over the past century, about half was added to the societal in-use stocks, and 382 Tg were discarded into various long-term repositories. (2) The evolution process of key copper flows indicates that since the 1990s, the anthropogenic copper cycle has been overwhelmingly dominated by Asia, different from the domination of the America before. (3) Global mapping of copper in-use stocks indicates a redistribution of copper resources in the socioeconomic system, manifested by a higher concentration in developed urban regions. (4) Till 2050, there is uncertain on whether copper supply can meet anthropogenic demand. Based on the above results, we proposed two directions for enhancing supply capacity of copper.

Key words: copper cycle, anthroposphere, resource use, in-use stocks, sustainability

张玲, 冉文春, 袁增伟. 人类圈铜循环格局演变及趋势[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(3): 513-523.

ZHANG Ling, RAN Wenchun, YUAN Zengwei. Evolution and prospects of anthropogenic copper cycles[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(3): 513-523.

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国家	储量占比/%	全球和平指数（GPI）	国家	储量占比/%	全球和平指数（GPI）
智利	20.5	高	墨西哥	6.0	低
澳大利亚	10.6	很高	美国	5.8	中
秘鲁	10.0	高	中国	3.1	中
俄罗斯	7.3	很低	刚果	2.4	低
印度尼西亚	6.1	高	赞比亚	2.3	高

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