中国乘用车物质代谢与碳减排策略

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.03.07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国是全球最大的汽车制造和消费国,汽车行业带来的资源消耗和温室气体排放受到了学者的广泛关注。辨析汽车行业的物质资源代谢特征和碳减排潜力可为落实循环经济政策和实现可持续发展提供科学依据。本文基于动态物质流模型,预测了中国乘用车中21种物质材料的代谢特征,评估了乘用车使用过程中的碳减排潜力。研究结果表明：①1949—2019年中国乘用车中的物质存量呈现指数型增长趋势,由2.3万t增加至3.7亿t。2030年后物质存量逐渐饱和,并于2050年达到5.6亿~11.1亿t;②2050年乘用车中物质材料报废量将超过需求量并达到37.4百万~73.8百万t/年;其中,钢铁（包括高强钢、普通钢和铁）报废量将达到21.2百万~42.4百万t/年;其他战略金属和稀贵金属报废量将达到36.8万~59.8万t/年;延长乘用车使用寿命以及较低的乘用车保有量可有效减少产废量;③提高汽油车的燃料效率是最有效的碳减排策略,其碳减排潜力高达3.3亿t,可降低40%的碳排放量。本文的研究结果可为汽车行业物质资源的有效管理以及碳减排策略的制定提供科学支撑。

关键词: 物质资源代谢, 存量, 流量, 乘用车, 资源管理, 碳减排, 物质流分析, 中国

Abstract:

China is the world’s largest motor vehicle manufacturer and consumer. The resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions brought by the vehicles have attracted widespread attention from scholars. Comprehensive assessment of material metabolism and carbon emission reduction potential of the vehicles are important prerequisite for policy formulation in circular economy and low-carbon development. Taking the passenger cars in China’s mainland as an example, we predict the future development of material demand, scrap, and evaluate the potential of CO₂ emission reduction associated with product use based on the dynamic material flow analysis model. The results show that the demand for passenger cars will gradually decrease after reaching a peak around 2022 (30~60 million per year), and will be around 30 million per year by 2050. After 2000, the amount of scrapped passenger cars has been increasing and will exceed the demand in 2040. In 2050, the amount of scrapped passenger cars will reach 30~70 million per year. The material scrap of passenger cars will exceed the material demand after 2040, and reach 37.3~73.8 million tons per year in 2050. Among five different emission reduction strategies, improving the fuel efficiency of gasoline vehicles is an effective strategy for emission reduction. Its emission reduction potential can reach 330 million tons per year, which can reduce carbon emissions by 40%. This article discussed the potential opportunities and challenges of circular economy and low-carbon development in the vehicle sector, and prospects for the future research work.

Key words: material metabolism, stocks, flows, passenger cars, resource management, carbon emission reduction, material flow analysis, China

宋璐璐, 曹植, 代敏. 中国乘用车物质代谢与碳减排策略[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(3): 501-512.

SONG Lulu, CAO Zhi, DAI Min. Material metabolism and carbon emission reduction strategies of passenger cars in China’s mainland[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(3): 501-512.

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序号	材料	使用强度/（kg/辆）			序号	材料	使用强度/（g/辆）
序号	材料	基准情景	低轻量化	高轻量化	序号	材料	基准情景	低轻量化	高轻量化
1	普通钢（Steel）	451	100	—	11	镁（Mg）	3000	3000	3000
2	高强钢（HSS）	250	339	424	12	钕（Nb）	100	100	100
3	铁（Iron）	77	77	77	13	镍（Ni）	2200	2200	2200
4	铝（Al）	180	250	200	14	锡（Sn）	530	530	530
5	铜（Copper）	31	31	31	15	轻稀土（LREE）	76	76	76
6	塑料（Plastic）	230	230	230	16	重稀土（HREE）	6	6	6
7	橡胶（Rubber）	41	41	41	17	钴（Co）	42	42	42
8	玻璃（Glass）	53	53	53	18	银（Ag）	17	17	17
9	其他材料（Misc）	43	43	43	19	钨（W）	10	10	10
10	锰（Mn）	7.5	7.5	7.5	20	钽（Ta）	6	6	6
					21	金（Au）	2	2	2

核算指标	情景设置	参数设置
核算指标	情景设置	P/亿	c/（辆/1000人）	τ/年	I/（t/辆）	F/（L/100 km）	T/%	K/（km/年）
产品/物质代谢核算情景	基准情景	13.6	450	15	451/250/180	—	—	—
	少人口	12.3	450	15	451/250/180	—	—	—
	多人口	15.1	450	15	451/250/180	—	—	—
	低保有量	13.6	300	15	451/250/180	—	—	—
	高保有量	13.6	600	15	451/250/180	—	—	—
	短寿命	13.6	450	12	451/250/180	—	—	—
	长寿命	13.6	450	18	451/250/180	—	—	—
	低轻量化	13.6	450	15	100/339/250
	高轻量化	13.6	450	15	—/424/200
	最小值	12.3	300	18	451/250/180	—	—	—
	最大值	13.6	600	12	451/250/180	—	—	—
碳排放核算情景	高燃油效率	13.6	450	—	—	4.5	35	13000
	高电动车比例	13.6	450	—	—	4.5	55	13000
	少行驶里程	13.6	450	—	—	4.5	55	12000
	低保有量	13.6	300	—	—	4.5	55	12000
	少人口	12.3	300	—	—	4.5	55	12000