复杂物质循环过程模拟方法与平台实现——以畜禽养殖系统磷循环为例

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.03.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

物质循环是人类获取资源的重要方式,尤其是对于磷这种地球生物生存不可或缺、不可替代的资源,理解其循环过程对资源可持续利用乃至人类永续发展具有重要意义。目前关于物质循环的研究多采用物质流分析方法,该方法是一种以物质流动过程质量守恒为基础、以系统分析为手段的定量核算方法,需要将系统物质流动路径与核算模型融为一体。为了解决传统物质流分析方法中数据与模型无法分离从而不适应与复杂物质循环过程模拟的问题,本文提出了复杂物质循环过程模拟概念模型与定量计算公式,建立了基于数据库、模型库、结果库、分析库4库分离的复杂物质循环过程建模方法,并基于EnVirLab环境虚拟仿真实验平台,以中国1600—2012年畜禽养殖系统磷循环过程为例开展方法验证研究,验证了基于4“库”分离的复杂物质循环过程模拟分析方法的可行性。本文对于建立标准化的物质流分析方法及开发复杂物质循环过程模拟软件,进而精确量化物质循环路径,对实现物质循环过程模拟从定量格局描述性分析向定量机理解释性分析转变具有重要意义。

关键词: 物质流分析, 磷循环, 复杂网络, 虚拟仿真, 系统动力学, 软件平台

Abstract:

Material cycling is an important way for human beings to obtain resources, especially for phosphorus, an indispensable and irreplaceable resource for life on the Earth, and it is of great significance to understand phosphorus cycling process for the sustainable use of resources and sustainable development of human society. At present, the research on material cycle uses the material flow analysis method, which is a quantitative accounting method based on the quality conservation of the material flow process and by means of systematic analysis, integrating the system flow path with the accounting model. In order to solve the problem that the data and model in the traditional material flow analysis method cannot be separated, which is not suitable for the simulation of complex material cycling processes, this study proposed the conceptual model and quantitative calculation formula of complex material cycle process simulation, and established the complex material cycling process modeling method based on database, model library, result library, and analysis library separation. Based on the environment virtual laboratory (EnVirLab) platform and taking the phosphorus cycling process of livestock and poultry breeding system in China from 1600 to 2012 as an example, a method validation study was carried out, and the feasibility of complex material cycling process simulation and analysis based on four library separation was verified. This study is of significance for establishing standardized material flow analysis methods and developing complex material cycling process simulation software, quantifying the material cycling path accurately, and realizing the transformation of material cycling process simulation from descriptive quantitative pattern analysis to explanatory quantitative mechanism analysis.

Key words: material flow analysis, phosphorus cycling, complex network, virtual simulation, system dynamics, software platform

盛虎, 刘欣, 芦昕雨, 廖宇星, 袁增伟. 复杂物质循环过程模拟方法与平台实现——以畜禽养殖系统磷循环为例[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(3): 465-476.

SHENG Hu, LIU Xin, LU Xinyu, LIAO Yuxing, YUAN Zengwei. Complex material cycling process simulation method and platform: Taking the phosphorus cycling of livestock and poultry breeding system as an example[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(3): 465-476.

图/表 8

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表1

模型各变量计算公式"

变量名	计算公式
$[出栏畜禽含磷量]$	$[每年出栏畜禽含磷量] - [每年净出口畜禽含磷量]$
$[奶类含磷量]$	$[每年奶类产量] × [奶类产品含磷系数]$
$[存栏畜禽磷的年际变化]$	$∑ 畜禽 i 存栏年际变化量 × [畜禽 i 活体含磷系数]$
$[存栏食草畜禽磷的年际变化]$	$∑ 食草畜禽 i 存栏年际变化量 × 食草畜禽 i 活体含磷系数$
$[排入农田畜禽粪便含磷量$ ]	$∑ [每年畜禽 i 粪便含磷量] × [畜禽 i 粪便还田率]$
$[排入水体畜禽粪便含磷量]$	$∑ [每年畜禽 i 粪便含磷量] × [畜禽 i 粪便排入水体率]$
$[排入非耕地畜禽粪便含磷量]$	$∑ [每年畜禽 i 粪便含磷量] × [畜禽 i 粪便排入非耕地率]$
$[每年畜禽 i 粪便含磷量]$	$[畜禽 i 日均饲养量] × [畜禽 i 日均排磷系数] × 365 / 1000000$
$[每年净出口畜禽含磷量]$	$∑ [畜禽 i 净出口活体数量] × [畜禽 i 活体含磷系数]$
$[每年出栏畜禽含磷量]$	$∑ [畜禽 i 出栏量] × [畜禽 i 活体含磷系数]$
$[活体贸易含磷量]$	$[每年净出口畜禽含磷量]$
$[牧草含磷量]$	$[食草畜禽活体含磷量] + [存栏食草畜禽磷的年际变化] + [食草畜禽粪便含磷量] + [奶类含磷量]$
$[畜禽粪便含磷量]$	$∑ [每年畜禽 i 粪便含磷量]$
$[粪便堆存含磷量]$	$[排入非耕地畜禽粪便含磷量]$
$[粪便排放含磷量]$	$[排入水体畜禽粪便含磷量]$
$[粪便还田含磷量]$	$[排入农田畜禽粪便含磷量]$
$[蛋类含磷量]$	$[每年蛋类产量] × [蛋类产品含磷系数]$
$[食草畜禽活体含磷量]$	$∑ [食草畜禽 i 出栏量] × [食草畜禽 i 活体含磷系数]$
$[食草畜禽粪便含磷量]$	$∑ [每年食草畜禽 i 粪便含磷量]$
$[饲料含磷量]$	$[存栏畜禽磷的年际变化] + [每年出栏畜禽含磷量] + [畜禽粪便含磷量] + [蛋类含磷量] - [牧草含磷量]$

表1

图6

图7

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