资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (2): 412-422.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.02.18

• 资源管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

黄河下游经济-人口-资源-环境和谐发展水平评估

刘建华1,2(), 黄亮朝1(), 左其亭2,3   

  1. 1.郑州大学管理工程学院,郑州 450001
    2.郑州大学黄河生态保护与区域协调发展研究院,郑州 450001
    3.郑州大学水科学研究中心,郑州 450001
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-31 修回日期:2020-05-05 出版日期:2021-02-25 发布日期:2021-04-25
  • 通讯作者: 黄亮朝
  • 作者简介:刘建华,男,河南郑州人,博士,教授,研究方向为区域经济。E-mail: ljh@zzu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    河南省软科学重大项目(212400410002);国家自然科学基金项目(51779230);中国工程院重大咨询项目(2021-149-1-5)

Evaluation of harmonious development of economy-population-resource-environment in the lower reaches of the Yellow River

LIU Jianhua1,2(), HUANG Liangchao1(), ZUO Qiting2,3   

  1. 1. School of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    2. Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection & Regional Coordinated Development, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    3. Center for Water Science Research, Zhengzhou 450001, China
  • Received:2019-12-31 Revised:2020-05-05 Online:2021-02-25 Published:2021-04-25
  • Contact: HUANG Liangchao

摘要:

随着工业化和城镇化的快速推进,黄河下游经济、人口、资源、环境关系复杂,矛盾日益突出,定量评估其和谐发展水平对黄河下游高质量发展具有重要意义。本文从经济、人口、资源、环境4方面构建和谐发展水平评估指标体系;采用“单指标量化-多指标综合-多准则集成”评价方法(SMI-P方法),评估黄河下游河南、山东沿黄17个城市2010—2018年经济-人口-资源-环境和谐发展水平;利用雷达图、箱线图分析其时间变化过程,利用Kriging插值法分析其空间变化过程。结果表明:黄河下游总体和谐水平不高,但逐年稳步提升;经济子系统发展指数最高,环境子系统次之,人口和资源子系统发展指数较低;②和谐发展水平的空间分布,呈现以郑州和济南为中心的高水平聚集区、两省交界城市的低水平聚集区,其他地区为中等水平。最后,结合黄河下游特征,根据不同的聚集区分析其和谐发展过程中的优劣态势,并从结构调整的角度提出促进黄河下游和谐发展的建议。本文旨在通过量化黄河下游经济-人口-资源-环境和谐发展水平,为黄河下游和谐发展提供数据支持和政策建议。

关键词: 经济-人口-资源-环境, 和谐发展, 评估体系, 量化方法, 时空变化, 黄河下游

Abstract:

With the rapid progress of industrialization and urbanization, the relationship between the economy, population, resources, and environment of the lower reaches of the Yellow River became increasingly complicated with clear conflicts. Quantitative assessment of their harmonious development level is of great significance for the high-quality development of the lower Yellow River Basin. This study constructed a harmonious development level evaluation index system from four aspects: economy, population, resources, and environment, adopting a single indicator quantification-multiple indicator synthesis-multiple criteria integration evaluation method to evaluate the harmonious development level of the economy, population, resources, and environment in 17 cities in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in Henan and Shandong Provinces from 2010 to 2018. Radar chart and boxplot were used to analyze the time-varying process, and Kriging interpolation was used to analyze the spatial change process. The results show that: (1) The overall degree of harmony in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is only moderate, but it has been steadily increasing year by year. The economic subsystem shows the highest development level, followed by the environmental subsystem, and the population and resources subsystems show a lower development level; (2) In terms of spatial distribution, the level of harmonious development presents a high-level cluster centered on Zhengzhou and Jinan, and low-level clusters in the peripheral cities of the two provinces. Finally, based on the characteristics of the lower reaches of the Yellow River, the advantages and disadvantages of the harmonious development process were analyzed by different urban agglomerations, and suggestions for promoting the harmonious development of the lower reaches of the Yellow River were proposed from the perspective of structural adjustment. This study aimed to provide data support and policy recommendations for the harmonious development of the lower reaches of the Yellow River by quantifying the level of the harmonious development of economy, population, resources, and environment.

Key words: economy-population-resources-environment, harmonious development, evaluation system, quantification method, spatiotemporal change, lower reaches of the Yellow River